NL West Primer: And the division goes to ... La La Land
In the chaotic final moments of last month's 89th Academy Awards ceremony, the creative geniuses behind "Moonlight," Barry Jenkins' gripping meditation on the intersection of race and sexual identity in America, learned in spectacularly cringeworthy fashion that the road to greatness runs through "La La Land."
Those in the National League West knew that a long time ago.
Fresh off a fourth straight division title (and their second NLCS berth in that span), the spare-no-expense Los Angeles Dodgers are as prepared as ever to defend their long-held seat of power in the NL West after dishing out more than $197 million this offseason to keep the band together.
So do the San Francisco Giants actually have a chance to dethrone the Dodgers in 2017? And what of the improved Colorado Rockies, you ask? With Opening Day looming, we address all that, and more, below in theScore's NL West division primer:
Division Primers
AL East I AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
2016 record: 69-93 (4th in NL West)
2017 payroll: $80,612,500
Over/Under win total for 2017: 77.5
Odds to win World Series: 100/1
3-year trend: 2014 (5th); 2015 (3rd); 2016 (4th)
Highest projected WAR: Paul Goldschmidt (4.0)
X-factor: Shelby Miller
Prospect to watch: Anthony Banda (MLB.com: No. NR ; Baseball America: No. 88; Baseball Prospectus: No. NR)
Winter report card: B
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Pollock | CF |
| 2 | David Peralta | RF |
| 3 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1B |
| 4 | Jake Lamb | 3B |
| 5 | Yasmany Tomas | LF |
| 6 | Brandon Drury | 2B |
| 7 | Chris Owings | SS |
| 8 | Chris Iannetta | C |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | R | 3.77 |
| Taijuan Walker | R | 4.16 |
| Robbie Ray | L | 3.57 |
| Shelby Miller | R | 4.46 |
| Patrick Corbin | L | 3.83 |
Diamondbacks win the division if ..
Separate meteor strikes wipe out California and Colorado. In fairness, the Diamondbacks' rotation, with the addition of of Taijuan Walker, could actually be kinda good if Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin rebound, but the Diamondbacks - ravaged by Dave Stewart's stunning incompetence - simply aren't talented enough to win a division title absent a series of miracles that all work in their favor. If only they had a shortstop who could hit and a left fielder that isn't Yasmany Tomas. Like, if they had, say, Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte, then things might be a little different. Alas...
Colorado Rockies
2016 record: 75-87 (3rd in NL West)
2017 payroll: $117,168,571
Over/Under win total for 2017: 80.5
Odds to win World Series: 50/1
3-year trend: 2014 (4th); 2015 (5th); 2016 (3rd)
Highest projected WAR: Nolan Arenado (4.3)
X-factor: Jeff Hoffman
Prospect to watch: Brendan Rodgers (MLB.com: No. 15; Baseball America: No. 16; Baseball Prospectus: No. 11)
Winter report card: C+
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Blackmon | CF |
| 2 | DJ LeMahieu | 2B |
| 3 | Nolan Arenado | 3B |
| 4 | Carlos Gonzalez | RF |
| 5 | Trevor Story | SS |
| 6 | Gerardo Parra* | LF |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds** | 1B |
| 8 | Tony Wolters | C |
*David Dahl (back) expected to open season on DL
**Ian Desmond (hand) likely out until late-April
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Gray | R | 4.13 |
| Tyler Anderson | L | 4.16 |
| Tyler Chatwood | R | 4.58 |
| German Marquez | R | 4.57 |
| Kyle Freeland | L | 5.11 |
Rockies win the division if ...
Their starting pitching dramatically exceeds expectations. When Desmond and Dahl are healthy, the Rockies' lineup is legitimately good, and while their rotation contains more upside than it has in recent years - hell, it might even be good enough to get them into the wild-card conversation - multiple starters will have to make huge developmental leaps for Colorado to usurp both Los Angeles and San Francisco atop the NL West standings.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2016 record: 91-71 (1st in NL West)
2017 payroll: $236,166,667
Over/Under win total for 2017: 94.5
Odds to win World Series: 8/1
3-year trend: 2014 (1st); 2015 (1st); 2016 (1st)
Highest projected WAR: Clayton Kershaw (7.2)
X-factor: Rich Hill
Prospect to watch: Cody Bellinger (MLB.com: No. 12; Baseball America: No. 7; Baseball Prospectus: No. 26)
Winter report card: A
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Forsythe | 2B |
| 2 | Corey Seager | SS |
| 3 | Justin Turner | 3B |
| 4 | Adrian Gonzalez | 1B |
| 5 | Yasmani Grandal | C |
| 6 | Joc Pederson | CF |
| 7 | Yasiel Puig | RF |
| 8 | Andrew Toles | LF |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | L | 2.37 |
| Kenta Maeda | R | 3.70 |
| Rich Hill | L | 3.20 |
| Brandon McCarthy | R | 3.80 |
| Alex Wood | L | 3.44 |
Dodgers win the division if ...
Everyone stays reasonably healthy. Barring multiple major injuries, there's no reason the Dodgers won't continue to reign in the NL West, boasting arguably the top pitching staff in all of baseball as well as a deep lineup that finished seventh in the majors in park-adjusted offense last year and has a good chance to improve in 2017 with the addition of Logan Forsythe and potential growth from reigning Rookie of the Year Corey Seager.
San Diego Padres
2016 record: 68-94 (5th in NL West)
2017 payroll: $56,477,500
Over/Under win total for 2017: 67.5
Odds to win World Series: 500/1
3-year trend: 2014 (3rd); 2015 (4th); 2016 (5th)
Highest projected WAR: Wil Myers (2.4)
X-factor: Manuel Margot
Prospect to watch: Manuel Margot (MLB.com: No. 23; Baseball America: No. 24; Baseball Prospectus: No. 18)
Winter report card: B
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Jankowski | LF |
| 2 | Manuel Margot | CF |
| 3 | Wil Myers | 1B |
| 4 | Yangervis Solarte | 3B |
| 5 | Hunter Renfroe | RF |
| 6 | Ryan Schimpf | 2B |
| 7 | Austin Hedges | C |
| 8 | Erick Aybar | SS |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Jhoulys Chacin | R | 4.59 |
| Jered Weaver | R | 5.03 |
| Clayton Richard | L | 4.20 |
| Trevor Cahill | R | 4.17 |
| Christian Friedrich | R | 4.42 |
Padres win the division if ...
Lol.
San Francisco Giants
2016 record: 87-75 (2nd in NL West)
2017 payroll: $173,611,110
Over/Under win total for 2017: 87.5
Odds to win World Series: 12/1
3-year trend: 2014 (2nd); 2015 (2nd); 2016 (2nd)
Highest projected WAR: Buster Posey (4.9)
X-factor: Matt Cain
Prospect to watch: Tyler Beede (MLB.com: No. 88; Baseball America: No. 89; Baseball Prospectus: No. NR)
Winter report card: B+
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denard Span | CF |
| 2 | Brandon Belt | 1B |
| 3 | Buster Posey | C |
| 4 | Hunter Pence | RF |
| 5 | Brandon Crawford | SS |
| 6 | Eduardo Nunez | 3B |
| 7 | Joe Panik | 2B |
| 8 | Jarrett Parker | LF |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Madison Bumgarner | L | 3.20 |
| Johnny Cueto | R | 3.28 |
| Jeff Samardzija | R | 3.75 |
| Matt Moore | L | 3.71 |
| Matt Cain | R | 4.54 |
Giants win the division if ...
Their role players step up. The Giants, as constituted, are a damn fine team, with a core of studs - comprised of Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford - that will no doubt make San Francisco a favorite to land a wild-card spot once again. Still, the only way these perennial runners-up in the NL West can supplant the Dodgers is if their less heralded players exceed expectations, especially if Posey's dip in value in 2016 marked the beginning of a trend. With the exception of perhaps Matt Cain, the Giants have no real liabilities on the periphery of their roster, but to grab that elusive division title, they'll need players flashing limited upside (Eduardo Nunez, Jarrett Parker) to defy their projections.
*Salary projections courtesy Cots Baseball Contracts
*Projected WAR,ERA courtesy Fangraphs
*Odds courtesy Bovada
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)