MLB plays of the day: Reds to rake vs. Lester
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Following MLB's cancellation of two of Monday's games, the slate is looking a bit lighter than we expected.
These three best bets still give us plenty to like.
Chicago Cubs (-130) @ Cincinnati Reds (+110)
Starting pitchers: Jon Lester vs. Wade Miley
A pair of southpaws take the mound Monday at Great American Ball Park, and that will excite one of these teams a lot more than the other. The Cubs hit just .239 against lefties last season, managing a feeble .322 OBP. That's good news for Miley ahead of his Reds debut, and he's looked sharp in camp, pitching four scoreless innings in his final intrasquad start while striking out seven batters.
Lester's final preseason game was decent, but he was hit hard in his previous exhibition start. He's coming off a down year and has posted poor numbers against the Reds, who have strong splits against lefties.
Mike Moustakas misses out on this contest after being diagnosed with COVID-19, but Eugenio Suarez and Nick Castellanos should pick up the slack. Both have produced against lefties and Lester in particular. Suarez was 6-for-8 against him last season with three home runs, while Castellanos is 7-for-12 in his career against Lester with three home runs.
Pick: Reds (+110)
Atlanta Braves (+125) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-145)
Starting pitchers: Mike Foltynewicz vs. Tyler Glasnow
On paper, this would appear to be Monday's top pitching matchup, but it's unlikely to play out that way. The Miami Marlins lit up Foltynewicz in his final outing of the preseason, allowing six runs on nine hits (including three home runs) in just 4.1 innings. His fastball velocity - averaging close to 95 mph last season and 96.3 in 2018 - is also a concern, topping out at just 91 in exhibition play. Don't expect the 28-year-old to start smoothly.
Glasnow is going through similar struggles. He was erratic during the preseason's final outing, walking four batters in three innings. The hurler is preparing for a big season, but this total is rooted in those expectations, and Glasnow just isn't there yet. Rays pitchers have started the season on the slow side, and there's every reason to expect to see Glasnow in the same boat following his late arrival to camp after recovering from COVID-19.
Pick: Over 8.5 (+105)
Chicago White Sox (+105) @ Cleveland Indians (-125)
Starting pitchers: Dylan Cease vs. Aaron Civale
Monday's AL Central showdown at Progressive Field will be a true top pitching duel. Cease and Civale have both been excellent in camp and look primed to make big contributions to their respective rotations this season.
Cease is feeling as confident as ever after dominating in camp, striking out eight in four innings in his most recent outing. His command has been excellent, his fastball location is great, and he's getting terrific movement on his breaking pitches. It's shaping up to be a breakout campaign for the former top prospect.
Civale largely flies under the radar because of the star power in the Indians' rotation. However, he was spectacular in his debut campaign in 2019, posting a 2.34 ERA while allowing just a .216 average, .368 slugging percentage, and .269 wOBA. He did so with a spin rate in the league's 85th percentile, an average exit velocity of just 86.6, and great horizontal movement on his cutter.
His pitch count was so low through six innings of an intrasquad start that manager Terry Francona kept him in to face two more batters, and Civale's outing ended with a strikeout of Francisco Lindor. He's got a great repertoire and looks ready to produce an even better season than 2019.
Pick: Under 5.5 first five innings (-105)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.