MLB plays of the day: Prepare for power from Twins, Tigers

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We were cruising to a 2-0 mark on Wednesday before the New York Mets' bullpen wasted a gem from Jacob deGrom. Here are our best bets for Thursday's slate.

Colorado Rockies (+140) at Arizona Diamondbacks (-160)

Starting pitchers: Kyle Freeland (2-1, 2.87 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (0-0, 2.25 ERA)

You know the drill by now: When Gallen pitches, we bet the under. With another solid outing last weekend, the 25-year-old is a remarkable 16-3-2 to the under in his career, the best mark by any starter since he entered the majors. He's now gone at least five innings in 18 of his 21 career starts and never allowed more than three runs in an outing.

For his part, Freeland is doing his best Gallen impression with six quality starts to start the season. He outlasted the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros in consecutive starts, and he's steadily increased his strikeout totals while boasting among the best contact rates in MLB.

Neither of these offenses should inspire fear in under bettors. The Rockies have the fifth-worst OPS in road games (.644), and the Diamondbacks had combined for a whopping 12 runs in their last seven games before Wednesday's late-inning burst. A strong outing by both starters should be enough to survive any sloppy play by the bullpens.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)

Minnesota Twins (-160) at Detroit Tigers (+140)

Starting pitchers: Randy Dobnak (5-1, 1.78 ERA) vs. Matthew Boyd (0-4, 8.48 ERA)

The under has been irresistible lately for Twins bettors, cashing in 10 of their last 13 games. But it's impossible to ignore the potential for fireworks with these pitchers on the mound.

If you looked only at Dobnak's underlying metrics, you'd be forgiven for not knowing he has the second-lowest ERA (1.69) in MLB history with a minimum of 50 innings pitched. The advanced stats tell a different story, though. His xERA of 4.15 this year is in the 50th percentile among all pitchers, and his hard-hit rate (37.2%) and paltry strikeout rate (13.4%) are both below average.

The Minnesota rookie has lived off a low-velocity sinker meant to draw weak contact in or around the zone. As Jon Lester learned on Wednesday, that won't cut it against this Tigers lineup, which leads the league in hard-hit rate (42.6%) and swings at nearly everything in the zone. And it's worked as of late; Detroit has plated at least seven runs in four of its last six games.

Additionally, the Tigers have allowed an average of 7.33 runs in Boyd's six starts this year. The 29-year-old lefty is coming off his best start against a toothless Cleveland Indians lineup, but, against all other teams, he boasts a 9.64 ERA with eight home runs allowed, the second-most by any pitcher this season.

The Twins are banged up right now, but this is still largely the same lineup that set the MLB home run record a year ago. That's bad news for Boyd and good news for over bettors on Thursday.

Pick: Over 9.5 (-115)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.