Which starting pitchers were best as underdog, favorite in 2020?
When betting on starting pitchers in baseball, it pays to know your spots. Some pitchers excel with their backs against the wall, while others are more comfortable dealing their best stuff against an overmatched foe.
So, with the 2021 MLB season just a few weeks away, here's a look back at the starting pitchers who excelled most in an underdog and favorite spot in the 2020 season (records from Sports Database).
Best starters as underdogs
| PITCHER | RECORD | RETURN |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5-2 | $663 |
| Justin Dunn | 6-3 | $610 |
| Erick Fedde | 5-3 | $532 |
| Marco Gonzales | 6-4 | $478 |
| Tanner Houck | 3-0 | $450 |
| Robbie Ray | 5-3 | $417 |
| German Marquez | 4-1 | $410 |
| Keegan Akin | 3-1 | $375 |
| Brett Anderson | 4-2 | $365 |
| Alex Cobb | 5-4 | $363 |
Sandy Alcantara (5-2, $663)
Only the Orioles were a better bet as underdogs than the Marlins, who went 24-27 straight up and netted bettors nearly $1,000 in that spot. No pitcher helped that cause more than Alcantara, whose team won five of his seven starts as a 'dog despite nominal run support.
Marco Gonzales (6-4, $478)
Few pitchers are more consistently overlooked than Gonzales, the Mariners' de facto ace and a consistent winner for bettors. The southpaw was an underdog in 10 of his 11 starts but still posted a winning record in those games behind a 3.16 ERA and impressive 0.989 WHIP.
German Marquez (4-1, $410)
Marquez is the quintessential example of knowing when to take your shots. As an underdog, the Rockies ace was 4-1 with a perfect 5-0 record against the run line, boasting a 1.42 ERA with one home run allowed. In his other eight starts, he went 3-5 with a 5.22 ERA and gave up five homers.
Best starters as favorites
| PITCHER | RECORD | RETURN |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 12-1 | $945 |
| Chris Bassitt | 9-2 | $635 |
| Cristian Javier | 6-0 | $600 |
| Shane Bieber | 9-2 | $545 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 12-3 | $540 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 9-2 | $535 |
| Dinelson Lamet | 8-2 | $525 |
| Zach Davies | 8-2 | $510 |
| Mike Fiers | 5-0 | $500 |
| Dane Dunning | 6-1 | $493 |
Max Fried (12-1, $945)
Fried was favored in 13 of his 15 starts and rewarded bettors with a 2.25 ERA and nearly $1,000 return, though he benefitted from a Braves lineup that knocked in 6.46 runs of support in those 13 chalk spots. His advanced stats suggest regression could be looming in 2021.
Cristian Javier (6-0, $600)
Javier has the off-speed stuff to dominate against overmatched hitters, but his command issues have costed him against better lineups. In 17.1 innings as an underdog, the Astros rookie allowed 11 earned runs and a ghastly seven homers. In all other appearances, he allowed just 10 runs and four homers across 37 innings with a perfect record as a favorite.
Shane Bieber (9-2, $545)
Bieber's Cy Young season was incredible in so many respects, but his success as a betting favorite shouldn't be overlooked. The Indians ace was a remarkable 9-2 as chalk despite getting just 3.55 runs on average from his side - by far the lowest of any starter on this list. That contributed to his 9-2 record to the under as a favorite with a $685 return, the best by any starter in that spot.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.