MLB Thursday best bets: Yankees to take commanding series lead

Editor's note: This article was published prior to news that Thursday's Yankees-Guardians game is postponed until Friday afternoon due to weather.

Wednesday was another successful day for us on the basepaths. We pushed our Phillies first-half moneyline play but hit another player prop as Freddie Freeman homered in the first inning to give us a sweat-free win on over 1.5 total bases (+110).

Let's keep the ball rolling with a couple more plays for Thursday's two-game slate.

Guardians (+120) @ Yankees (-140)

The Yankees picked up a 4-1 victory over the underdog Guardians in the series opener. Game 2 may be close - and low scoring - but I like the Yankees to deliver the goods again.

Nestor Cortes has been unbelievably good over the last month, posting a 1.80 FIP and allowing more than one run only once over his last six starts.

The Guardians struggle to generate offense at the best of times, so a date with Cortes figures to be problematic, especially given their troubles against left-handed pitching.

Since the beginning of September, the Guardians rank 20th in wOBA and 30th in ISO against lefties. They have no power or ability for quick-strike offense, and I don't see them stringing hits together against Cortes.

Shane Bieber enters this game in good form for Cleveland, but his underlying metrics aren't as good as Cortes', and his two primary pitches are right in Aaron Judge's wheelhouse.

The Yankees, as a whole, are much more potent at the plate. Over the last six weeks, the Yankees sit second in wOBA against right-handed pitching. I think they're going to grind out a few runs, which should be more than enough support for Cortes to lead them to another win.

Bet: Yankees (-140)

Julio Rodriguez over 1.5 bases (+145)

We've hit every player prop in the playoffs thus far, and we're putting our streak on the line with the Mariners' young superstar.

This is all about matchup profiling for me. Framber Valdez is a terrific pitcher but throws sinker after sinker after sinker, and that's Rodriguez's bread and butter.

He absolutely mashed sinkers this season, posting a .466 wOBA and 63.5% hard-hit rate. Both totals ranked him first on the Mariners among everyday players.

His speed gives him the ability to turn even a routine single into a double. He just needs one decent swing to get us there, and the value is simply too high to pass up.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.