Stay or go? Evaluating star MLBers' opt-outs and player options

There are a handful of marquee players who can add additional star power to this offseason's free-agent market if they opt out of their current contracts. We take a look at each case and weigh the pros and cons of each player's decision.

Xander Bogaerts

Position: SS
2023 age: 30
Remaining contract: 3 years, $60M
Should he opt out: Yes

It's a no-brainer for Bogaerts to test the open market as it's all but a formality that he'll soar past the three years, $60 million he has remaining on his contract.

Bogaerts made no secret of his affection for the only franchise he's ever known and his desire to finish his career with the Red Sox. Boston's signing of Trevor Story last year was seen at the time as a precursor to Bogaerts' departure, with Story sliding over to his natural position of shortstop. That doesn't appear to be the case anymore, with Story looking likely to remain at second base, regardless of whether Bogaerts re-signs or the Red Sox look at other shortstop options.

Entering the 2022 campaign, there were questions about how long Bogaerts would be able to stay at shortstop as an inconsistent defensive player. The 30-year-old quieted those critics with one of the best defensive seasons of his career. Even if the Red Sox look for a younger player to replace him, Bogaerts sent a message to other teams that he might be able to continue at shortstop for a few more seasons before a potential positional switch.

Although there might still be some lingering questions about his defensive value moving forward, there's no doubt that Bogaerts is one of the best hitters in the game after posting the second-highest wRC+ of his career this past season. He might not command the same type of deals that Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson are likely to secure, but it remains likely that a team will give Bogaerts a five- or six-year deal for at least nine figures

Carlos Rodon

Position: SP
2023 age: 30
Remaining contract: 1 year, $22.5M
Should he opt out: Yes

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi admitted in early October that he expects Rodon to exercise his opt-out clause after a career season. The All-Star left-hander will become one of the best pitchers available and should easily top the two-year, $44-million pact he signed with San Francisco in March.

After a breakout campaign with the White Sox in 2021, Rodon proved his performance wasn't a fluke with a Cy Young-worthy season for the Giants. The 29-year-old posted a 2.88 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 237 strikeouts over a career-high 178 innings (31 starts). He also authored the lowest FIP (2.25) among qualified hurlers in the majors and the second-best fWAR (6.2) for pitchers.

Rodon ended up essentially taking a one-year deal with San Francisco because injury concerns have always been an issue. Until this season, he never pitched more than 165 innings in a year, and that came back in 2016. His sustained run of good health in 2022 should convince at least one club to dish out a deal that could be as long as six years.

Carlos Correa

Position: SS
2023 age: 28
Remaining contract: 2 years, $70.2M
Should he opt out: Yes

The Twins shortstop already made his plans to opt out known. Although Correa didn't have a banner year in Minnesota, he still rated as one of the best shortstops in the American League, per FanGraphs' WAR, and led his league in wRC+ at the position.

At 28, Correa is still in his prime and betting that a team looking for a shortstop will hand him the lucrative, long-term deal he wasn't able to secure last offseason. The issue Correa might end up running into is how deep the crop of free-agent shortstops is this winter. Bogaerts, Turner, and Swanson all had better years by fWAR than Correa and could end up drawing away some of his potential suitors. Correa, however, won't be attached to a qualifying offer like the other three.

Correa's prodigious postseason resume is definitely something that works in his favor. Teams looking to make their mark in the playoffs can look at his ability to deliver in the biggest moments as a potential missing piece of the puzzle.

Despite not having his best season in 2022, Correa did little to hurt his reputation as one of the game's best players at a premium position. It would be surprising if he wasn't able to secure a bigger contract than the three-year, $105.3-million pact he inked with the Twins last year.

Nolan Arenado

Position: 3B
2023 age: 32
Remaining contract: 5 years, $144M
Should he opt out: No

There have been rumblings that Arenado doesn't plan to opt out of his contract with the Cardinals. However, nothing is set in stone, and the star third baseman would become arguably the best player available on the open market if he changes his mind.

Arenado's 2022 campaign might be the best in a career that one day could result in a plaque in Cooperstown. The 31-year-old's 7.3 fWAR and 151 wRC+ were the highest totals of his stellar 10-year run in the majors. There's also a very good chance that he adds a 10th straight Gold Glove to his resume. It would make sense to test free agency if he wasn't already signed to a great deal.

The seven-time All-Star is set to make $35 million in 2023, $35 million in 2024, $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027 under his current pact. He'll be paid like a star over the remainder of his prime and into his mid-30s. St. Louis is also a model franchise that consistently puts a competitive team on the field, which is a far cry from what Arenado experienced with the Rockies.

Arenado and the Cardinals are a great fit based on the money and on-field situation. Maybe he uses the opt-out as leverage to gain some additional term with St. Louis, but it would be a surprise to see him walk away from a good thing.

Jacob deGrom

Position: SP
2023 age: 35
Remaining contract: 1 year, $30.5M
Should he opt out: Yes

DeGrom already said during the spring that he plans to opt out and nothing appears to have changed his mind. He'll become the top pitching target available in free agency despite significant injury issues over the last two campaigns. Mets owner Steve Cohen said in late August the club will do whatever it takes to keep the 34-year-old. However, retaining the two-time Cy Young winner will be easier said than done.

DeGrom's 25.6 fWAR is the highest among all hurlers since 2018. His 2.05 ERA and 2.14 FIP are also tops among qualified starting pitchers, and his 12.2 K/9 is second behind Max Scherzer. DeGrom's strikeout rate jumped to a staggering 14.3 K/9 over his last 156 1/3 innings (26 starts) across 2021 and 2022.

It's hard to imagine the four-time All-Star won't ask for an average annual value similar to Scherzer's $43.3 million with New York. DeGrom is also four years younger than his teammate. A five-year deal could end up netting him more than $200 million - a very deserved raise from the five-year, $137.5-million extension he signed in March 2019.

Justin Verlander

Position: SP
2023 age: 40
Remaining contract: $25M player option
Should he decline option: Yes

No one knew what to expect from Verlander after he missed nearly two full campaigns following Tommy John surgery in 2020. The veteran hurler responded with arguably the greatest season of his illustrious career and looks likely to add a third AL Cy Young to his mantle. Verlander has already made it clear that he plans to return for an 18th season in 2023 after he posted the lowest ERA of his career (1.75) across 175 innings for the Astros.

Verlander will be 40 by the time Opening Day rolls around next season. There is certainly risk associated with signing him, but he still has zip on his fastball and sharp movement on his breaking pitches. Verlander will likely look to approach Scherzer's record-breaking $43.3-million AAV on a deal that guarantees him more than one year.

The Astros should be considered the favorites to retain Verlander, who has grown comfortable in Houston since he was acquired from the Tigers in 2017. However, if the Astros balk at signing Verlander for whatever reason, there are likely to be a number of interested clubs. Both the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees were serious suitors last offseason and would likely be in the market for Verlander once again.

Anthony Rizzo

Position: 1B
2023 age: 33
Remaining contract: $16M player option
Should he decline option: Yes

As expected, Rizzo's swing and the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium have been a match made in heaven.

Rizzo hit 19 of his 32 home runs at home in 2022 and has been a perfect fit both on the field and in the clubhouse for the Yankees. Although he isn't the same caliber defensively as he was a few years ago, Rizzo makes up for it in other areas.

He might not be able to command much more than the $16 million he's slated to earn on his player option next season, but it makes sense for Rizzo to try and lock in another guaranteed year or two as he enters his mid-30s.