The mess that is the Mets, the Buxton dilemma, and 7 other observations

Leading off …

The state of the New York Mets is dire enough that owner Steve Cohen held a press conference Wednesday.

The press briefing didn't contain much substance. Cohen told reporters he was not firing anyone - well, at least during the season - explaining that he's a "patient" person. He took responsibility for the club's 36-45 record but noted there was plenty of blame to go around.

Cohen wouldn't address specifics about potentially dismantling the underachieving Mets, the highest-paid team in history at more than $340 million. But he wouldn't dismiss them, either.

For Cohen, the next month leading up to the trade deadline is critical.

"I don't think it's sustainable in the long term, just losing the type of money that I'm losing. It's a lot to ask," Cohen said. "Frankly, you know, we'll figure it out. I have the wherewithal to do it. And it's just a question of how long."

The Mets aren't just 17.5 games behind the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, a team many believe is a threat to win the World Series. They are 11.5 games behind the second-place Miami Marlins. The Mets are also nine games behind the San Francisco Giants, who hold the last wild-card spot.

They haven't been bedeviled by bad luck, either. Their minus-18 run differential suggests they should be about where they are in the standings.

After Monday's loss, Mets starting pitcher Justin Verlander seemed at a loss for words.

"I don't think anybody saw this coming, man," Verlander told reporters.

While it's true many viewed the Mets as a likely playoff team, there were reasons to doubt they were an elite team.

The biggest reason? Age.

The Mets are a reminder that the game is trending younger. New York is the oldest team in the majors with the third-oldest position player group and the oldest group of pitchers (32.6 years), which features 40-year-old Verlander and 38-year-old Max Scherzer. They're each making $43.3 million this season.

In the last two full MLB seasons, players 32 and older accounted for 18.1% of total WAR in 2021 and 16.5% in 2022. The historical average from players 32 and older is 22.5%.

Declines from older players aren't always gentle.

While Scherzer remains effective, he hasn't been dominant. His strikeout-minus-walk rate is down six percentage points to its lowest level since 2011.

Verlander is suffering through an even greater drop-off. His K-BB% rate is down nine points from 23% to 14%. Verlander's had the 10th-greatest drop-off in that key performance measure this year; Scherzer ranks 25th, which is down more than five percentage points. As a group, Mets pitchers have contributed 2.1 WAR this season, which ranks only ahead of Oakland.

For position players, Starling Marte (34) and Jeff McNeil (31) have both lost 50 points off their wRC+ marks and have suffered among the greatest declines over last year. Francisco Lindor is batting a career-low .221 and striking out a career-high rate (22.3%). Most players' physical peak occurs between 25 and 27. Lindor is 29.

Even with some positive second-half regression to the mean, FanGraphs still projects the Mets to finish 80-82.

The near-term outlook for the Mets isn't great. The Atlanta Braves aren't going anywhere.

New York has $244 million in player commitments for next season, guaranteed dollars tied to players who won't be getting any younger.

Even if Cohen wanted to double down on this group in the offseason, most believe free-agent-to-be Shohei Ohtani is likely to remain on the West Coast.

The farm system has talent, although there's a gap in maturation dates now that catcher Francisco Alvarez has graduated to the big club.

If the Mets elect to break up this team, they can absorb salary to attract significant returns. They can also have a team take on dollars in the same way the Dodgers did in August 2012 when they took on most of the $270 million owed to Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford from the Red Sox.

It's complicated in New York. The next month might mean more for the Mets than any other club.

No. 2: The Twins' Byron Buxton dilemma

The Twins have built their best pitching staff in recent memory, but they can't hit. At least not lately.

Minnesota held a lengthy closed-door meeting after its loss Wednesday as frustrations boiled over. Manager Rocco Baldelli shared his frustration with beat writers covering the team.

One issue is what to do with Byron Buxton.

Buxton, when healthy, is one of the major leagues' top athletes, blending rare power with rare speed. The problem that's always held him back is injury.

So, in part due to a lingering knee issue, the Twins made the decision to limit him to DH. He hasn't played in the field this year, despite being one of the game's best outfielders.

The good news? Buxton has played in 78% of the team's games after having played in just 52% of contests from 2016-2022. He remains plagued by minor injuries, including his nagging knee issue and back spasms more recently, but he's avoided a major issue.

The bad news? He's not hitting well enough (101 wRC+) to be considered an above-average option at DH (107 is the MLB average).

The Twins are a sub-.500 team halfway through the season. They have a league-average DH when they could have a dynamic outfielder. If Buxton can't return to the outfield, it limits the club's upside.

No. 3: Will the AL Central make history?

There's never been a full season in which a playoff team had a losing record.

That's in part because the wild-card era didn't arrive until 1995. But the playoffs expanded by one team in each league in 2012, and again last season.

The 2005 San Diego Padres were close, winning the division with an 82-80 mark. But the AL Central figures to test history this year. The Twins had led the division most of the year, but after going 5-9 over the last two weeks, Minnesota and Cleveland entered play Friday in a virtual tie for first place while being two games under .500.

FanGraphs projects the Twins to finish with a mark of 81-81.

A sub-.500 playoff team would spark a lot of discussion about the current alignment and division configurations. Perhaps a sub-.500 division winner would pump the brakes on the idea of four divisions per league should MLB expand to 32 teams.

No. 4: The Yankees have a rest-of-season problem

In their first three weeks without Aaron Judge, the Yankees have gone 10-11 and lost ground to Tampa Bay and Baltimore in the AL East.

Turf toe isn't an especially common injury in baseball. The ailment sidelined Miami's Jazz Chisholm for six weeks; Justin Upton missed two and half months in 2019.

But each case is different. Judge just began some on-field work this week, making some pregame tosses. Complicating matters is the Yankees' DH spot, which is already occupied by Giancarlo Stanton. If Judge isn't right soon, New York isn't a postseason lock.

No. 5: The Rockies are worse than you think

The Los Angeles Angels recorded franchise records for runs and hits in their 25-1 victory Saturday against the Rockies.

We know Colorado can't pitch, and that it's difficult to acquire and develop pitchers who can perform in a home park that's more than 5,000 feet above sea level.

But this season, the Rockies are an even worse hitting club. They're last in the majors with a wRC+ of 81, and their position players have a dismal minus-0.2 wins above replacement.

Colorado is on pace to hit its fewest number of home runs in a full season in club history. The wRC+ mark would tie the 2021 club for the worst full-season mark in franchise history.

This is a far cry from the Blake Street Bombers of the 1990s. Interestingly, because of ballpark adjustments, and because the Rockies are generally among the worst-hitting teams on the road, they've never rated as an above-average offense in any season. The mile-high environment sometimes masks their offensive issues, but that's not happening this year.

No. 6: Should the Pirates avoid the Boras threat?

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel reported that LSU outfielder Dylan Crews might refuse to sign with the Pirates, who own the first overall pick. Crews, whom many regard as the top prospect in the draft, is being advised by Scott Boras.

On one hand, it seems like an empty threat. By refusing to sign, Crews would be forced to enter the draft again next year and possibly delay his eligibility for free agency and arbitration.

On the other hand, the Pirates hardly have a great track record of success on the field or in player development. There's also little chance of Crews reaching a lucrative extension with a club that operates so frugally.

But should the Pirates be bothered by the threat?

Pittsburgh play-by-play voice Greg Brown went on a local radio show Wednesday and offered his thoughts:

That's of interest since Brown is a team employee.

If Crews is by far the best player on their board, the Pirates ought to call the bluff. But if they view pitchers Paul Skenes or Wyatt Langford as highly - that case can be made for Skenes - they should go in that direction. It's better to begin with a player who wants to be part of the organization. And their experience with other early first-round Boras clients such as Pedro Alvarez (No. 2 overall pick in 2008) and Gerrit Cole (No. 1 overall pick in 2011) were mixed in terms of performance. Neither was a long-term fit.

No. 7: The other great rookie

If Corbin Carroll can maintain his pace, he'd own the second-best age-22 rookie season of all time by WAR.

He's undersized at 165 pounds but a burgeoning superstar who's put to rest any doubts about his power. His speed, athleticism, and hit tool were never in doubt.

Elly De La Cruz is a phenom who's sparking the Reds in Cincinnati. He's doing things on the field that have never been done.

But they're not the only great NL rookies this season.

There's a less discussed player: San Francisco Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. He's an elite defender who rates extremely well in framing and pop-time metrics. Per inning, he rates as the game's best defensive catcher. And he's a switch-hitter who made adjustments to his right-handed swing in the offseason.

At the time of his call-up, the Giants were 20-23. As of Friday, they are 45-36.

It underscores the importance of defense at the catcher position. And if a catcher can be a league-average bat, it's a massive edge. Bailey might not be Buster Posey, but he could be the next best thing for the Giants.

No. 8: Manoah's struggles

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said this week that he believes Alek Manoah will rejoin the club this season. Toronto lacks pitching depth and has been fortunate to avoid major injury thus far. According to ManGamesLost.com, the Blue Jays have lost the second-fewest number of days to the injured list this year (265), trailing only the Guardians (165).

Manoah allowed 11 hits and 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings Tuesday during a rookie-level Florida Complex League game. He might have been working on something specific, but the outcome isn't a positive indicator.

Compared to last season, Manoah has lost a bit of fastball velocity, some break and shape on his slider, and a lot of confidence. It's likely going to be a long road back. It's tough to see how the Blue Jays can count on a 2023 return.

No. 9: The evolution of Tatis

Sports injury expert Will Carroll reported earlier this year that Fernando Tatis Jr.'s shoulder surgery was less severe than many feared. And since his return from a suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs, Tatis is performing as well as ever despite missing more than a full year of games.

To date, he's posted a 135 wRC+, close to marks of 151 (2019), 151 (2020), and 157 (2021) from his first three seasons. He's produced 3.0 fWAR in 283 plate appearances, which is in line with the 3.3 fWAR from the shortened 2020 season. He's hit 15 home runs and stolen 14 bases.

But how he's doing it is interesting.

He's a natural in right field, where he's been deployed in order to try and keep him healthy. He's third in all of baseball in defensive runs saved (13) thanks to his speed, athleticism, and throwing arm.

He's also become a much more aggressive hitter. Tatis has increased his swing rate to a career-high 55% and significantly cut his strikeout rate to under 20%. Tatis is back, and the Padres desperately need him.

He said it

"There has to be some urgency. Nothing changes unless there is some urgency." - Baldelli on his Twins.

Stat of the week

1-for-101 | Entering play Tuesday, three Pirates regulars - Ji Hwan Bae, Jack Suwinski, and Austin Hedges, along with short-side platoon infielder Rodolfo Castro - had combined for just one hit since June 14.

That's a 1-for-101 skid. That seems almost impossible to do. (Since then, they've been a slightly more productive 6-for-34.)

Although it's more difficult for a low-spending team like the Pirates to acquire a potential ace like Skenes, the club also has pressing needs for position players.

You don't see that every day

Players who are on deck usually don't end up in fair territory. But Jake Cronenworth did Wednesday while trying to help out a teammate.

Starting Lineup is a bi-weekly collection of reporting, observations, and insights from the Major League Baseball beat.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.