Are these Dodgers good for baseball?
There's no doubt the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be a draw - the draw - in baseball next season, and perhaps for many to come.
Much of that show will happen late on weeknights in Eastern Standard Time, perhaps to Major League Baseball's chagrin, which would probably prefer a New York-based superpower. But the Dodgers have created - on paper - a superteam, the kind that'll enjoy attendance spikes wherever it plays, and that'll almost certainly deliver meaningful TV ratings boosts in future postseasons. Merch will be sold.
The Dodgers were already coming off three straight 100-win seasons (and five of the last six that weren't shortened by a pandemic). They've won 10 of the last 11 NL West titles, and last year's margin over second-place Arizona was the widest of the six divisions (16 games). They've now completed the greatest offseason in MLB history - again, on paper - and we haven't even reached the new year.
They added Shohei Ohtani, the most sought-after free agent of all time, on a record deal that is almost entirely deferred (it's a record when not adjusting the deferrals for inflation). They acquired Tyler Glasnow, the most talented pitcher on the trade market, and signed him to a nine-figure extension. And they wrapped December by coming to terms with the best pitcher on the free-agent market, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, on a 12-year, $325-million deal.
A big question is whether this new empire is good for the game.
The Dodgers are likely going to be a hit with international reach. The Yankees' dynasties, including their last one in the late 1990s, drew interest and television ratings for MLB. But this superteam construction also creates further divide between the haves and have-nots in an industry where many fans already feel like teams they follow are second-class. The financial playing field is never even and keeps tilting.
MLB remains the only major North American sport without a cap-and-floor salary system. While the relationship between payroll and winning percentage is only loosely correlated in MLB history, there's a very real perception problem tied to payroll disparity that doesn't exist in other North American sports.
Entering Friday, the Dodgers had spent $1.053 billion on free agents while the rest of baseball had spent a combined $893 million.
The Dodgers have access to huge financial resources as property of the Guggenheim Baseball Management consortium, and enjoy the sport's largest local TV contract, a 25-year, $8.35-billion deal with SportsNet LA. The latter's a huge advantage over teams saddled with a Bally Sports TV contract that's still winding its way through bankruptcy court in Texas.
Further, in addition to having gobs of money, the Dodgers are also a model organization in scouting and player development.
There was already the perception among many fan bases that their teams have little chance of competing in 2024 because of payroll disparity. And that was before the Dodgers' latest spree.
Teams like Milwaukee, Cleveland, Miami, and Pittsburgh have owners who rarely pay for stars on the open market. And because so few teams participate at all price points in the market, baseball's offseason can be far less interesting compared to other sports, where all teams must be active to remain within hard floors and caps.
One can argue that a big reason why the NFL dominates and why the NBA is expected to soar past MLB with its next national TV rights package is because the financial playing field is fairer. Fans' focus is on the quality of roster decisions, not whether teams are spending at all. The NFL and NBA are national juggernauts, while MLB interest only becomes more regional.
Some will cite the number of different World Series winners in recent years as evidence of a level MLB playing field, but that parity is almost solely tied to the chaotic nature of short postseason series and the increased number of playoff spots available.
While every MLB owner has the right to match or exceed dollars doled out by the Dodgers, ownership history shows most franchises aren't willing to squeeze margins to increase payroll. The greatest revenue-generating clubs have the greatest margin advantages. There simply aren't enough superfan billionaires willing to own 30 baseball clubs and operate them in a manner satisfactory to fans.
To change behavior, new rules or incentives are needed.
The players' union remains against a cap-and-floor system. But with no mechanism to force owners to reach a minimum payroll level, including owners who profit from revenue sharing, payroll imbalance remains a dark cloud over the sport. And it's growing.
For instance, the five highest-spending clubs from 2004-13 spent $7.22 in free agency for every $1 spent by the bottom five clubs.
The top five spenders from 2014-23 doled out $7.55 in free agency for every dollar spent by the bottom five.
The Pirates have spent $718 million on Opening Day payroll over the last 10 years. Ohtani's deal guarantees him $700 million over the next 10 years.
Of course, the Dodgers' offseason isn't without risk.
Ohtani's pitching future is uncertain after another elbow surgery. Glasnow's only reached 100 or more innings twice in his career, and only six pitchers since 1990 who are built as slightly as Yamamoto (5-10, 176 pounds) have reached 1,000 career innings.
But their offseason may still irk some fellow owners regardless of how the investment plays out.
In the last CBA negotiation, owners attempted to police themselves by having a Steve Cohen tax tier added after he purchased the Mets and took them on a spending spree. It'll be interesting to see if anything is done to address the Dodgers' spending, including the unusual deferrals in Ohtani's deal. But the current CBA runs until 2026.
The Dodgers further shifted the divide between high- and low-revenue clubs, and they're also potentially shifting the balance of power to the West Coast.
More and more baseball talent is migrating from Japan and South Korea, and if there's a strong preference for West Coast cities among such international free agents, geography's another advantage for the Dodgers.
The plus for MLB is this Dodgers team will help grow international interest. The negative is that a large majority of folks in the U.S. and Canada reside in Eastern and Central time zones. There will be fewer live Ohtani at-bats and live innings tossed by Yamamoto watched, since many first pitches out west begin at 10 p.m. ET. Also, the NL West is a less competitive division than the AL or NL East, and may provide less September theater.
Whether the rise of a potential Dodgers' dynasty is good for the game - or exclusively the Dodgers - depends on the eye of the beholder. But there's no doubt the balance of power is shifting, and that a perception problem remains.
Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.