6 MLB teams poised to take step back in 2024

The offseason isn't over yet, though many clubs have already made waves. With many key moves already done, let's look at six teams that appear bound for some regression in 2024, with their 2023 win totals for reference.

Los Angeles Angels (73 wins)

The Angels were a lock for this list after losing Shohei Ohtani via free agency. Los Angeles never came anywhere close to the playoffs over Ohtani's six-year tenure with the club - which included the two-way superstar's AL MVP seasons in 2021 and 2023. However, the team is indisputably worse without its top hitter and ace after Ohtani accrued a combined 9.0 fWAR in 2023.

Losing a player of Ohtani's magnitude is massive on and off the field. The 29-year-old led the Angels with 44 home runs in just 135 games, while Brandon Drury had the next-highest total with 26. No other player had more than 19. Ohtani also led the team in hits, RBIs, stolen bases, batting average, and OPS. His departure means Los Angeles loses all the international exposure and merchandise sales, and attendance numbers will go down.

Mike Trout is still a force when healthy. However, because of injuries, he heads into his age-32 campaign having only suited up in a combined 237 games over the last three seasons. The Angels would be wise to explore a deal involving the three-time AL MVP while he still has trade value to replenish their depleted farm system.

Los Angeles added middle relievers Adam Cimber, Luis García, and Adam Kolarek this offseason and signed Zach Plesac to be a swingman. None of these players move the needle in a division that features the World Series champion Texas Rangers, perennial powerhouse Houston Astros, and playoff-contending Seattle Mariners. Even with some promising younger players, the Angels' front office has a lot to do to supplement the current roster to avoid becoming one of MLB's worst clubs in 2024.

Miami Marlins (84 wins)

The Marlins are coming off their first playoff berth during a full regular season since 2003. The roster shows some promise, but there are some concerns for a team that will need to continue jockeying for position in a top-heavy division led by the heavyweight Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.

Off the top, last year's minus-57 run differential was the worst of any postseason-bound club and outperforming that mark by nine wins shouldn't be considered repeatable. Miami finished 33-14 in one-run games last season which will be almost impossible to replicat

Miami's front office has yet to address the departure of Jorge Soler, who led the team with 36 home runs. Last year's trade deadline additions, Josh Bell and Jake Burger, should fill in to a certain extent, but power could still be an issue for a club that finished 22nd in the majors in homers. Newcomers Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Bruján do little but provide depth.

The Marlins' rotation of Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers has the potential to be one of the best in the NL. But none of the starters are over age 26 and inexperience could be a problem, especially with ace Sandy Alcántara out for the 2024 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October.

Milwaukee Brewers (92 wins)

Milwaukee's offence has some serious concerns. Willy Adames, who can test free agency after next season, is the only hitter projected to amass more than 20 home runs. Christian Yelich and William Contreras also have some pop, but the lineup is missing a lot of power. The likes of Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, and Brice Turang will have to produce in meaningful ways for the Brewers to contend again.

The rotation no longer includes two-time All-Star Brandon Woodruff, who was non-tendered after undergoing shoulder surgery in October. Adrian Houser, acquired in a trade with the Mets, is also not returning. Neither are outfielders Mark Canha and Tyrone Taylor. Slugger Rowdy Tellez - who hit 35 homers in 2022 - joined the division-rival Pirates. Meanwhile, Jake Bauers, Austin Nola, Joe Ross, and Eric Haase are all minor additions.

The Brewers look content to run with their youngsters in 2024 in hopes of repeating in the underwhelming but improving NL Central. Only two position players - Yelich and Haase - on their current projected 26-man roster are over age 30. Leaning on inexperienced players could result in more downs than ups.

It remains to be seen what the Brewers do with ace Corbin Burnes, who hinted that he wants to be a free agent while his name has circulated in trade rumors all winter.

Minnesota Twins (87 wins)

The Twins, the only team above .500 in the AL Central in 2023, were rewarded with a division title. However, Minnesota's front office has spent nothing on free agents so far this offseason, while the second-place Detroit Tigers and young Kansas City Royals have been busy improving their rosters.

Reigning AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray joined the Cardinals on a multi-year deal, right-hander Kenta Maeda landed in Detroit, and fellow starting pitcher Tyler Mahle went to the Rangers. The team will have to count on Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland to round out a rotation that was a major strength. Slugger Joey Gallo is also a free agent after going deep 21 times with a .741 OPS over 111 games last year.

Longtime Twins Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, set to earn a combined $20.5 million, are rumoured to be on the trade block. The club still has some exciting young pieces like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner, but Byron Buxton continues to struggle with staying healthy and Carlos Correa is coming off the worst season of his career with $160 million and five years left on his pact.

San Diego Padres (82 wins)

The Padres were MLB's unluckiest team in 2023, posting a plus-105 run differential that should've resulted in 92 victories. San Diego's misfortunes cost the team an opportunity to make the postseason with a lineup that featured Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatís Jr., and Xander Bogaerts, while Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Josh Hader led the pitching staff.

Unfortunately, the missed opportunity may have prolonged consequences. The club lost significant talent this winter after trading Soto to the Yankees and losing Snell, Hader, Michael Wacha, Trent Grisham, Seth Lugo, and Nick Martinez. The moves come after reports surfaced the team was planning to cut the payroll significantly heading into 2024.

San Diego has, so far, welcomed Michael King, Kyle Higashioka, and Jhony Brito from New York. King has proven to be a valuable reliever and has the potential to be an impact starter based on limited results last season, though the jury's still out with the small sample size. Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go arrive from Japan and Korea, respectively, to replace Hader and Martinez - a tall task considering Hader is arguably the best closer in baseball.

Meanwhile, the division-rival Dodgers created a superteam, the Diamondbacks are having a terrific offseason after a surprise run to the World Series, and the San Francisco Giants are always on the prowl to add more talent after trading for former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and signing KBO star Jung Hoo Lee.

Tampa Bay Rays (99 wins)

The Rays always find a way to squeeze the most out of their players. But without Wander Franco, Tyler Glasnow, and Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay will be hard-pressed to win 99 games again and is the team on this list most likely to regress.

Franco is away from the Rays and has an unknown future because of a criminal investigation in the Dominican Republic. His on-field impact is irreplaceable: Franco was Tampa's best player before being placed on administrative leave. The rotation's ceiling took a big hit after McClanahan underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Glasnow was traded to the Dodgers for pre-arbitration youngsters Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca. The pitching staff is also missing injured hurlers Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen.

Tampa's front office swung a few trades Friday, sending former All-Star reliever Andrew Kittredge to the Cardinals for outfielder Richie Palacios, while another outfielder, Luke Raley, went to the Mariners for infielder José Caballero. The Rays, who have a history of making these deals work, turned bonafide production into younger players with potential and years of control.

The Rays will likely still find a way to compete in baseball's toughest division - just don't expect regular-season dominance.