Blue Jays produce unremarkable offseason in winter of urgency

When a private plane's flight track from California to Toronto went viral on social media in December, it seemed for one afternoon that the Toronto Blue Jays had a chance to enjoy a remarkable offseason.

Alas for Blue Jays fans, Shohei Ohtani wasn't on that plane.

Even before that afternoon of enthralling misinformation, expectations were already high for Toronto's offseason. The club was coming off a strong season but one that ended in another disappointing wild-card sweep.

There was also the added urgency of the ticking clock on this roster, with the club's years of salary control over homegrown stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette now down to two. Starting pitcher Chris Bassitt is also a free agent in 2026; staff ace Kevin Gausman and George Springer follow the year after.

One can argue the Blue Jays and team ownership should have had the most urgency of any club this winter. There's also the farm system, which was ranked 25th by Baseball America at the close of the minor-league season.

The Jays were willing to give Ohtani a contract similar to the one he ultimately agreed to with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but Toronto's execution of Plan B has raised questions as to whether the current roster can compete for an AL East title and play deep into October. As the calendar turns to February - pitchers and catchers report to spring training Feb. 15 - the Blue Jays' winter of work has been rather unremarkable. Most major offensive improvements will have to come internally.

It's still possible the Blue Jays can make a splash before the season begins, but the one-year, $13-million deal the club agreed to with Justin Turner on Tuesday figures to put a cap on external moves.

The winter's focus, understandably, was centered around the position-player group. The approach again targeted defense and versatility, a philosophy the Blue Jays pivoted to last offseason.

They re-signed Kevin Kiermaier, ostensibly to be the primary center fielder. He'll again be paired in the outfield with another elite defender, Daulton Varsho, who had a tough first season in Toronto offensively.

The Blue Jays also added versatile and sure-handed but power-challenged Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who could fill a variety of roles, including spending time at third base, where he grades well defensively (Matt Chapman filled the position the last two years before entering free agency).

Turner looks to be Toronto's first - and perhaps last - bat-first external offseason addition.

Could he play third base? It's possible. He was a longtime third baseman with the Dodgers, but Turner played only 57 innings there last year with Boston. (He also played 289 innings at first base and 49 at second.) While he might have played more third if the Red Sox didn't have Rafael Devers there, Turner's defensive metrics have been in decline.

As the Jays are presently constructed, the 39-year-old figures to spend a lot of time as the designated hitter. And to be a difference-maker as a DH, a player must really hit.

Turner remained a quality hitter last season (.276/.345/.455 with 23 homers) but projections are rather muted regarding the coming season, at an age when talent erosion is generally expected to accelerate.

Aggregating the four projection systems (ZiPS/ATC/BATX/Steamer) published at FanGraphs, Turner's forecasted to post a .263/.337/.421 slash line in addition to 15 home runs over 524 plate appearances for a wRC+ mark of 107.

His projection isn't so much different from the Jays' other DH options - like catchers Alejandro Kirk (113 wRC+) and Danny Jansen (114 wRC+) - who project to be even more proficient per plate appearance.

That raises the question whether the playing time and relatively modest dollars being awarded to Turner could be better allocated elsewhere.

If we've learned anything about the postseason in the wild-card era, it's that power takes on even greater importance. It helps explain why the slug-first Philadelphia Phillies exceeded expectations in two straight postseasons.

In October, it's harder to manufacture runs. It's more difficult to string hits together given the postseason's increased strikeout environment. Assuming Turner will primarily serve as Toronto's DH, there's an argument to be made that power should have been prioritized there.

Consider the aggregate projections for similar power-hitting free agents Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez:

Joc Pederson's left-handed bat was likely an ideal fit for Toronto's right-handed-heavy lineup but he preferred to play close to his native California and signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Left-handed hitting Cody Bellinger seems to only be a consideration if his demands come down substantially.

Toronto entered the offseason needing more offensive punch, and it's fair to wonder if it'll have enough.

The Blue Jays had one of the greatest home-run declines between 2022 and 2023 (minus-12), trailing only the Brewers and Yankees.

In 2021, the Jays hit an MLB-leading 262 home runs but regressed to 16th in the majors last season with 188. (The Blue Jays did spend much of their 2021 season playing home games at hitter-friendly minor-league parks.)

Only the Yankees, White Sox, and Mets had greater declines in offensive efficiency from 2022 than the Blue Jays (minus-11 wRC+, a measure that adjusts for ballpark environment).

They did become the game's best defensive team with 85 defensive runs saved, but overall, the Jays' pivot to defense resulted in a similar but slightly worse outcome last season.

The Blue Jays do expect internal run-scoring improvement.

Guerrero and Bichette can be better than they were in 2023. Davis Schneider was one of the best player-development stories of last season and now embarks on a full major-league season. Guerrero and Bichette could learn something from Schneider in accessing their pull-side power.

There is one X-factor with Turner: he's regarded as an excellent teammate, something of a player-coach, who helped guys like Bellinger when they were teammates with the Dodgers. If Turner can help Guerrero better unlock his power - as Turner did to transform himself from utility man to star halfway through his career - he'll afford the club meaningful, hidden value.

The Blue Jays are also becoming a bit riskier due to age, which increases the chance of injury and performance decline. Turner's 39. Springer and Kiermaier are both 34.

Toronto was the fifth-oldest team among position players last year, and it figures to be even older this year.

As Bichette said during an appearance on local radio last week: "We're not a young team anymore. The whole excuses of growing and learning and all that, it's out the window, it's time to be grown."

The Blue Jays have played four playoff games in the last two years, losing all four and being shut out three times. Toronto scored one run in its series against the Minnesota Twins last year. While much was made of the decision to pull José Berríos early from his Game 2 start, a team has to score runs to win.

As the offseason draws closer to its end, there are major questions about how much punch these Blue Jays will have, and whether they've shown enough urgency to capitalize on their closing window of opportunity.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.