MLB trade deadline winners and losers
In the flurry of activity leading up to Tuesday's 6 p.m. ET trade deadline, there was one key number among all the deals made: Zero.
Not a single top-100 prospect was traded, according to Baseball America's updated rankings. Not one. What's going on?
Part of the issue is two of the biggest potential trade chips weren't moved. Garrett Crochet remains with the White Sox, and Mason Miller with the A's.
But the trade deadline is also more complicated in the expanded playoff era. While there was a lot of activity, there were few blockbusters.
As I wrote over the weekend, there are an average of three more contenders per year with the extra wild card.
On average, more than half of MLB teams (16.7 teams since 2022) own at least a puncher's chance (25% or better FanGraphs playoff chances) of making the postseason a week before the trade deadline.
The added volume throws more chaos into the deadline dynamic. While there are more contenders, not everyone's buying into their chances. And teams know selling is usually the better long-term play.
While there are some clear buyers and sellers, there are more teams willing to try and play both markets, in part because the play-in round waters down the value of capturing the wild card. There are fringe contenders that'll sell (Rays), unlikely contenders that'll buy (Cubs), and a bunch of clubs willing to invest in smaller deals but not agree to significant trades.
Still, some teams ought to have tried to improve their postseason chances, and some did. Did sellers maximize their returns? Let's evaluate this year's deadline winners and losers:
Strong winners
Rays
Yes, some of their returns are mixed.
The Rays perhaps didn't get enough back for starting pitcher Zach Eflin, as the Orioles didn't surrender a top-10 prospect. The Rays did enjoy a haul for reliever Jason Adam, though, and their player development team can perhaps get more out of prospects Dylan Lesko and Homer Bush Jr. than the Padres did.
What the club did do is choose a direction, act early and decisively, and it picked a path that's usually more beneficial at the deadline: sell.
Selling wasn't an obvious choice; the Rays owned 21% playoff chances when they traded Aaron Civale on July 3, and 18% chances when they moved Randy Arozarena last week and Eflin the following day.
The club wasn't done.
I really like the acquisition of Christopher Morel's electric but flawed bat along with prospect arm Hunter Bigge from the Cubs for a good player in Isaac Paredes, but one whose potential is already fully realized.
If anyone can make Morel a star, it's the Rays.
The Rays are opportunistic - as they always are, as they must be to compete. Selling isn't generally a popular strategy in the short term for clubs with a postseason shot, but perhaps the club's aided by a fan base that doesn't appear to be the most demanding, vocal, or invested. Regardless, the Rays executed. And their turnaround may not require much time.
Even after trading away two-fifths of their starting rotation, it features Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot (when healthy), Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz, and Zack Littell.
Top hitting prospect Junior Caminero is on the doorstep in Triple-A.
The Rays are having a down year but they won't be down for long.
Marlins
The Marlins acquired the No. 1 and No. 2 prospects traded at the deadline, according to Baseball America's updated rankings. The best prospect moved was Yankees catcher Agustin Ramirez, "a top 100 candidate at this point thanks to plus power that he marries to better-than-average contact skills," BA wrote. Ramirez was acquired in the Jazz Chisholm deal. Orioles infield prospect Connor Norby, added in the Trevor Rogers trade, was the second-best prospect traded.
In a busy Tuesday, the Marlins flipped reliever Tanner Scott for three of the Padres top remaining prospects: No. 3 (Robby Snelling), No. 4 (Adam Mazur), and No. 6 (Graham Pauley).
They added seven total prospects ranked in Baseball America's top 16 moved at the deadline, the most in MLB.
Whether the Marlins can develop them effectively and build a contender remains to be seen.
Blue Jays
The Blue Jays had to sell to some degree.
One of baseball's most disappointing teams had to at the very least jettison players on expiring and short-term deals in hopes of improving their future prospects.
They did that in moving seven players - Yimi García, Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Nate Pearson, Trevor Richards, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Danny Jansen - for a combined 13 prospects.
Thirteen!
(The club also traded Kevin Kiermaier to the Dodgers for Ryan Yarbrough in a minor deal.)
These are the kind of deals that can yield outsized return; none of those big-league players were going to be long-term fixtures for the Jays. They had to improve a weak farm system and help a flawed MLB roster.
They did particularly well in moving Kikuchi, an impending free agent, to Houston.
They received the third- and 10th-best prospects to be moved at the deadline in pitcher Jake Bloss (who could soon join the rotation) and outfielder Joey Loperfido, according to Baseball America's rankings. The return was widely regarded as one of the best of the deadline period.
The only critique here is that Toronto generally went for older prospects. I believe teams ought to target at least some extreme upside, which generally means adding teenagers.
Bloss, Loperfido, and Jonatan Clase have already debuted in the majors. Will Wagner just turned 26. Eddinson Paulino is 22 and in Triple-A. Charles McAdoo and Yohendrick Pinango are 22 and in Double-A.
Those are the top seven prospects the Blue Jays returned, according to Baseball America. They're all at least 22 and have all reached Double-A, meaning they likely have limited upside and higher floors.
The best long-term returns of recent years have featured then-teenage prospects like Yordan Alvarez, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Oneil Cruz. But teenage prospects require time, and how much time Toronto's front office will be afforded is unknown.
Dodgers
Somehow the Dodgers acquired the top rental starter available in Jack Flaherty without giving up a significant prospect. Los Angeles was in desperate need of starting pitching help, and they got it.
Mid-level winners
Orioles
There were only four teams with greater than 30% but less than 80% chances of securing a playoff bye a week prior to the deadline.
In other words: There were four teams that ought to be aggressive buyers before the deadline; teams with plausible but uncertain first-round bye chances.
The Orioles were one of those four teams, along with the Yankees, Guardians, and Twins.
The Orioles were most aggressive in adding among that group.
The big add was getting Eflin without surrendering a top-10 prospect - one of the deadline's best buys. Eflin's one of the best command arms in the game and is coming off a 5-WAR season in 2023. While his stuff ticked down a bit this year, his called-plus-swinging strike percentage (28%) is still well above average.
The Eflin deal was a clear win for the club and one of the best in an expensive pitching market.
The second big addition was a bit more puzzling, in Marlins left-handed starter Rogers. The Orioles sent Norby (their No. 7 prospect) and outfielder Kyle Stowers (who's blocked due to Baltimore's depth) to Miami. Many viewed it as an overpay, but not all.
While the club owns another year of control over Rogers (through 2026) compared to Eflin (2025), that Rogers was more expensive given his erratic performance in recent seasons is surprising.
Baltimore appears to have overpaid for Rogers. But on the other hand, the Orioles own one of the sharper analytical and player development groups in baseball, so they must see something in Rogers. Perhaps they can get his slider and changeup back on track. Remember that Camden Yards is also now one of the best places for lefties to pitch.
While the Orioles may have traded away too much for Rogers, Eflin is talented enough to be a postseason difference-maker and it's tough to place a value on that.
Yankees
The Yankees were too top heavy in their lineup and added arguably the top impact position player available in Chisholm, whose potential could be unlocked in New York. He joins a contender with one of the shortest right-field porches at home in baseball.
The early returns are favorable.
The Yankees didn't have to surrender a top-100 prospect for a well-rounded player who can't hit free agency until after 2026 - that's a win.
Mid-level losers
Astros
Houston's accelerating its decline.
Already in possession of an eroded farm system, the Astros traded three prospects, including two of their top five (Bloss and Loperfido) for a rental arm in Kikuchi. The lefty's hardly a sure thing; he's been volatile throughout his career.
The Astros still have star power in Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Kyle Tucker. But Tucker's a free agent after next season, Bregman after this season, and they have fewer and fewer promising young players to fit around them.
Guardians
The Guardians have been known for their pitching factory for much of the last decade, but the assembly line paused this year as the team struggled to replace arms lost to injury (Shane Bieber) and poor performance (Triston McKenzie).
The Guardians find themselves in contention because of a strong bullpen and hitters bouncing back (Steven Kwan) or beating expectations (David Fry).
But now that they've begun to cool after an excellent first half, it's fair to wonder whether a rotation that includes Ben Lively, Carlos Carrasco, and Joey Cantillo can actually get to October and do damage there.
The Guardians added one potential starter in Alex Cobb on Tuesday from the Giants, but he's been injured all season and is a question mark. Their big splash was acquiring outfielder Lane Thomas.
While Thomas is a fine player, he's much better against left-handed pitching (career 142 wRC+ versus lefties, 88 versus righties), which makes him best served as a short-side platoon player. The Guardians surrendered three of their top 30 prospects - left-handed pitcher Alex Clemmey, shortstop Rafael Ramirez Jr., and shortstop José Tena - for Thomas. That's a high price.
Looking ahead, the Guardians appear to be an arm or two short.
Twins
The Twins were another of those four teams in position to benefit most from adding at the deadline, but they only traded for reliever Trevor Richards from Toronto. Minnesota should have been more aggressive.
Cubs
The Cubs are mostly out of the race, owners of only 5% playoff chances entering play Tuesday, and elected to buy and sell. But their biggest move was as a buyer in adding Paredes.
Chicago actually traded Paredes and Jeimer Candelario for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson at the 2017 trade deadline. Cubs president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer was then the club's GM.
Paredes is now older and more expensive and the Cubs are bringing him back.
While the Cubs will point to the fact that he's under club control for three more seasons, the issue is Paredes is fully tapped out as a player. In possession of weak exit velocities, he gets the most out of his ability by being a master at pulling the ball in the air down the line (at least a small issue at Wrigley Field, where the wall juts out deeper down the lines). A club like the Cubs ought to be targeting players with more upside. Chicago's paying peak price for Paredes and selling low on Morel in addition to the prospects they included.
This is how not to trade at the deadline.
Top losers
Athletics
It makes little sense for the A's - seemingly years away from contention at an unknown location - to hold on to players like Miller (great in talent and in injury risk), Brent Rooker, and JJ Bleday, but they did.
Miller could have returned an incredible prospect package, but he'll remain in Oakland where he's at risk of losing all trade value.
Padres
It seems like San Diego GM A.J. Preller makes a blockbuster deadline deal every year, and the Padres were again active, this time paying heavy prices for relievers Scott and Adam.
They surrendered seven prospects including their No. 3 (Snelling), No. 4 (Mazur), No. 5. (Lesko), No. 6 (Pauley), No. 8. (J.D. Gonzalez), and No. 12. (Bush), mainly for those two relievers.
The Padres have traded 12 of their top 15 prospects this year in deals for Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Adam, and Scott.
San Diego owns solid playoff chances but is unlikely to grab a playoff bye. This isn't the type of position most GMs would buy in, but Preller isn't like most GMs, for better or worse.
It's a gamble unlikely to pay off.
White Sox
Yes, Crochet made unusual contract extension demands, but the White Sox - so many years from contention - had to move the top arm available. They perhaps mismanaged his innings count (111, more than double his previous career high of 54), which might have scared off potential buyers, and now they carry the risk that he'll suffer another severe injury and lose all value.
Crochet simply had more value - a lot more value - to another team.
Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.