Cy Young rankings: Can Skubal, Sale keep holding off deep field?

Welcome to the fourth edition of theScore's 2024 Cy Young rankings, where we look at the top five pitchers in each league. The list of contenders has narrowed as we enter the home stretch. The question now is who, if anyone, can make a push heading into September, or are these races already decided? Odds courtesy of theScore Bet.

American League

5. Tanner Houck, Red Sox

Though he's tumbled a bit after holding down a top-two spot for much of the season, Houck's still in this race. The Red Sox ace continues to tie hitters in knots as he's third in the AL in ERA and fourth in FIP and fWAR (3.7), while his nine home runs allowed are the fewest among qualified AL starters. Houck also ranks in the top 10 in innings pitched and has made 18 quality starts, tied for fourth in his league. Houck's been stung a bit by walks, surrendering almost 2.5 per nine innings, but he's making up for that by sitting in the 93rd percentile for ground-ball percentage. In many ways, he's single-handedly keeping Boston's pitching staff afloat these days.

4. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians

Don't scoff; Clase deserves to be here. The Guardians closer is on pace to finish this campaign with the third-lowest ERA and WHIP in the wild-card era (since 1995) for a reliever with at least 50 innings. Despite an unusually low K/9 rate (7.4) for a closer, Clase is proving to be a master at keeping the bases empty. He's allowed only 31 hits and one homer this year while sporting the lowest BB/9 rate (1.2) among qualified AL relievers. And, of course, his 37 saves lead the AL, putting him in position to top the league for a third straight campaign. It takes a special season to vault a reliever into the Cy Young conversation, and Clase is doing that right now.

3. Logan Gilbert, Mariners

Gilbert is standing out from the crowd in a stellar Mariners rotation. The 27-year-old owns the majors' lowest WHIP and the AL's second-lowest ERA. He ranks in the top five in his league in strikeouts, BB/9, fWAR (3.2), and opponent's average (.195). Gilbert has also turned into a workhorse, tossing the second-most innings in the AL and throwing an MLB-best 20 quality starts. He's quietly worked his way into the Cy Young race and should be able to cement a top-three finish if this performance continues down the stretch.

2. Cole Ragans, Royals

Bobby Witt Jr. might get most of the press, but Ragans is playing just as big of a role in the Royals' renaissance. The left-hander ranks second in the AL in strikeouts, FIP, and fWAR (4.1), and he's first in K/9 (10.8). This year marks the first time Ragans has thrown 100-plus innings as a pro, and he's doing fine with the increased workload, tallying 17 quality starts and one complete game. Ragans has all but assured himself a top-three Cy Young finish, something a Royals pitcher hasn't done since Zack Greinke won the award in 2009.

1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers

There are some great pitchers in the AL this year. Skubal's been better than all of them. The Tigers southpaw is flying toward winning the AL pitching Triple Crown (14 wins, 2.49 ERA, 185 Ks), which hasn't been done in a 162-game season since Justin Verlander's MVP campaign in 2011. Skubal tops the AL leaderboards in FIP, fWAR (4.5), and ERA+ (169). He also sits second in WHIP and K/9 (10.7), fourth in innings pitched, and top 10 in BB/9 (1.9) and K/BB rate (5.61). Skubal's tied with Ragans for the third-fewest homers allowed (13) among qualified pitchers. Barring something catastrophic, this race is over.

Apologies to: Corbin Burnes (BAL), Garrett Crochet (CWS), George Kirby (SEA), Seth Lugo (KC)

National League

5. Dylan Cease, Padres

Cease has pushed himself into the Cy Young race thanks to a dominant run since the start of July, which included a no-hitter. After an MLB-best 26 starts, the 28-year-old is suddenly sitting second in the NL in strikeouts and K/9 (11.3), third in opponent's average (.193), fifth in WHIP and FIP, and top 10 in ERA and fWAR (3.5). Although his 3.0 BB/9 rate is a personal best, walks remain the main issue for Cease as he's issued 50 free bases, just three back of the NL lead. Cease's high ERA, which hasn't been below 3.40 since mid-May, is also holding him back. Still, if Cease can finish strong, there's no reason to think he won't get some support from voters.

4. Logan Webb, Giants

Last year's NL Cy Young runner-up is again building a good case for himself. Webb's perhaps the premier workhorse in today's game, throwing a league-leading 164 2/3 innings while surrendering only seven home runs. He's also sitting second in the NL in FIP, fourth in fWAR (3.9), fifth in ERA, and 10th in strikeouts. A ground-ball master who seems made for spacious Oracle Park, Webb's one of only two NL hurlers with a ground-ball rate above 50%. His chances of winning this award will improve if he can lower his ERA even further and pitch the Giants into the playoffs. He's capable of doing both.

3. Hunter Greene, Reds

Greene was flying up these rankings on the back of a historic stretch before landing on the injured list with an elbow injury last week. Since June 30, Greene's allowed just six earned runs, held hitters to a woeful .140/.237/.192 slash line, and tallied 59 strikeouts. As a result of that run, which included a 24-inning shutout streak, he's now third in the NL in ERA, second in ERA+ (151), fourth in WHIP, seventh in strikeouts, and top 10 in FIP and K/9 (10.2). It's unfortunate that Greene got hurt when he did because he was in the middle of turning this race upside down. Even if he doesn't return to finish his breakout campaign, Greene deserves this recognition.

2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies

Another year, another brilliant run for Wheeler, who's hoping to finally break through and win his first Cy Young. The 34-year-old is doing some of his finest work anchoring the Phillies' dominant staff this year. Although Wheeler isn't leading the NL in any major categories, he ranks second in ERA and WHIP, third in strikeouts, and top 10 in fWAR (3.8), K/9 (9.9), and FIP (3.38). He's again among the most dependable arms in baseball, having crossed the 150-IP threshold for the sixth consecutive full season while throwing an NL-best 19 quality starts. If anyone else in the field is going to make a late charge for this award, it'll probably be Wheeler.

1. Chris Sale, Braves

Like Skubal in the AL, Sale's rapidly pulling away from the pack and turning in a season for the ages. He's in a position to win his league's Triple Crown (14 wins, 2.62 ERA, 187 Ks) and leads the majors in FIP (2.05) and fWAR (5.2). He tops the NL in ERA+ (160) and K/9 (11.9), sits third in WHIP, and is top five in opponent's average (.210). Sale has also given up only eight home runs over his 23 starts. He's clearly all the way back after losing several years to Tommy John surgery. His comeback season is one of the best stories of 2024, and it's likely to end with him holding the Cy Young Award that's eluded him for all these years.

Apologies to: Tyler Glasnow (LAD), Sonny Gray (STL), Shota Imanaga (CHC), Cristopher Sánchez (PHI), Paul Skenes (PIT)