Why your team can win the World Series: AL wild-card round edition

This year's postseason field is one of the most open in recent memory.

There's no 100-win team in the majors for the first time in a full season since 2014, after a stretch of six straight seasons in which there were at least three of them.

No team reached triple-digit wins even with the White Sox offering the competition what were the equivalent of 120 free bingo squares.

The last time MLB lacked a super team, the 88-win Giants beat the 89-win Royals to win the World Series.

This October, every team in the field owns a path to the title. So, how can your team win it all?

We begin our postseason preview series with a look at the AL wild-card round teams. What can propel them through October?

No. 3 Houston Astros

While the Astros are still in a gentle descent from their mini-dynasty peak that included two World Series titles - one tainted, one fully legit - they remain a formidable team.

While they fell short of a bye, if one believes in rust factor for teams bypassing the play-in round, this isn't such a poor outcome for perhaps the playoffs' best non-bye team. (All three 100-win teams with byes lost in the Division Series last year.)

The Astros' great advantage: they have one of the deepest lineups in the field - and the deepest in the AL.

While the Yankees enjoy two superstars, the Astros feature six position players who accumulated at least 3 WAR, including nearly 5 WAR from Kyle Tucker, who missed half the season with a shin fracture. Tucker's showing no signs of rust, hitting .340 with four homers in September entering play Friday.

Only the Dodgers (seven) have more such contributors in the playoff field.

Historically, World Series winners typically feature deep lineups with an average of 4.1 position players recording at least 3 WAR. The Astros check that box. They can wear down opponents.

Houston will have to overcome some suspect middle relievers, but its rotation is in much better position after struggling early this season. Astros starters had MLB's seventh-worst ERA at 4.53 through June 19, but enjoy the fourth-best starting pitching ERA (3.36) and WAR (8.0) and in the second half.

Yusei Kikuchi is throwing as well as he ever has since coming over from Toronto and ought to receive a starting assignment in a rotation led by Framber Valdez.

It's an important October for these Astros. With an eroded farm system, front office brain drain, and the eventual loss of some on-field talent (Alex Bregman's a free agent after this season, Kyle Tucker after next), this group may not have many more postseason runs together. But right now, the Astros are as dangerous as any non-bye team in the field.

No. 4 Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles limp into the playoffs after an exceptional start to the season.

They had a losing record in the second half, which cost them their grip on top of the AL East.

A few weeks ago, they jettisoned closer Craig Kimbrel, their most expensive free-agent acquisition of the offseason. Catcher Adley Rutschman, one of the faces of the franchise, is in a dreadful slump, batting .202 with three home runs in the second half. The issue perhaps stems from a midseason hand injury, which coincides with declining bat speed.

Moreover, ace Corbin Burnes owns a 3.69 ERA in the second half after posting a 2.43 mark in the first half. The Orioles traded for Burnes to be a difference-maker, not merely good. His strikeout rate is in decline for a fourth straight season and his cutter's lost horizontal bite. One big key is whether Burnes can get back to being his best.

It's also possible they made too many changes at the trade deadline. Not only did one big addition fall flat (lefty pitcher Trevor Rogers struggled and was subsequently sent to the minors), the volume of change might have upset clubhouse chemistry.

Other than that, everything seems great, right?

The good news: Baltimore still has a seat at the wide-open postseason table.

If Burnes and Zach Eflin can pitch more like their 2023 selves, that would provide a big boost. And their lineup may be getting strong at the right time.

First-half breakout star Jordan Westburg just returned from the IL, a big lift for the club. Cedric Mullins, mired in a first-half slump, is starting to hit. Former No. 2 overall draft pick Heston Kjerstad finally found his way into a platoon role and owns an impact bat. Colton Cowser is warming again. All of a sudden, the lineup appears much deeper - especially against right-handed opponents.

This is still a young team on the ascent, despite the late summer turbulence.

Baseball's a sport of peaks and lulls, and if the Orioles are coming out of a lull - if some of the supporting actors are getting hot at the right time around young superstar Gunnar Henderson - they can reach and win the World Series.

No. 5 Kansas City Royals

In another year, Bobby Witt Jr. would be an overwhelming MVP candidate. The breakout superstar's five tools impact a game in so many ways. Star power matters more in the postseason, too. There are fewer off days and less need to rest regulars. The best players play. If Witt Jr.'s at his best on the biggest stage, few other players in the field can match his production.

But the Royals' greatest edge this year is their rotation.

Cole Ragans emerged as perhaps the second-best lefty in the AL after Skubal, and free-agent signings Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha stabilized what was a shaky rotation with 370 quality innings. They all rank in the top 10 among qualified ERA leaders. They produced quality volume all year and can be relied upon even more in the postseason.

They needed those innings to avoid a suspect bullpen, but closer Lucas Erceg, acquired at the trade deadline, was a considerable upgrade for the back end.

The Royals can win an arms race, which means they can win it all.

No. 6 Detroit Tigers

The Tigers held 0.5% playoff chances on Aug. 1, according to FanGraphs' odds. That rocketed to 81% on Sept. 25, and reached 100% Friday. (Javier Baez hasn't played since Aug. 22, when the surge began, which perhaps isn't a coincidence, a form of addition by subtraction.)

The greatest advantage the Tigers enjoy over the rest of field is the left arm of Tarik Skubal, perhaps the game's best pitcher.

Remember: true aces become even more valuable in October. The best arms take on an even greater share of innings because of added off days and urgency.

Consider the case of the 92-win Diamondbacks in 2001, who took full advantage of the playoffs' different nature. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling combined for 34.6% of Arizona's regular-season innings that year but 58.2% of its postseason innings. The D-Backs played a different game in October en route to winning the World Series.

More recently, when the Phillies made a surprising run to the World Series in 2022, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler combined to throw 40.9% of postseason innings after tossing 25.1% of their regular-season innings.

While Skubal may not be peak Randy Johnson, he's still a cheat code. With Skubal and other breakout arms like Tyler Holton, the Tigers posted the best second-half ERA (3.06) in the game. The league average is 4.11.

Detroit has the arms to play deep into October.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.