Polar opposites: ALCS pitching plans couldn't be more different

A.J. Hinch is about as familiar as anyone with recent postseason play.

The Detroit Tigers manager previously piloted the Houston Astros to several playoff berths and a tainted World Series title. He knows firsthand how the game is evolving to become more bullpen-centric, a trend even more pronounced in the postseason. October is when added off days and urgency warp how the game is pitched.

But even having seen it all, Hinch said after his club's Game 5 loss Saturday that he'd never witnessed bullpen usage to the extreme - both in terms of quantity and quality - like he saw from the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS.

"I tell you what. I've been through a lot of playoff series where the bullpen gets used a lot," Hinch told reporters after the game. "But I'm not sure I've quite ever seen the Cade Smith, (Hunter) Gaddis, (Emmanuel) Clase pitch at that volume and stay at that level."

In beating the Tigers, the Guardians advanced to face the New York Yankees in the ALCS, which begins Monday evening.

The series will be a contrast in pitching philosophies - in addition to the stark star power and payroll differences. And a big question, perhaps the question, is whether the Guardians can replicate their ALDS pitching plan in a longer series.

While the Tigers enjoyed a big advantage in having ace Tarik Skubal start two of the club's five games, the Guardians largely neutralized that edge through their bullpen-heavy game scripts. Can they do the same against the Yankees?

Recall, by some measures like wins probability added, the Guardians had the best bullpen in recorded MLB history. Cleveland leaned into it.

In Game 5, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt used seven relievers - and mostly by design.

"We had a little bit of a script, it went pretty close," Vogt said. "There were a couple times that we had to kind of go off the script, but at the same time, it was watch the game, see what the game is telling us to do."

He added: "I think the best thing that we do is that we plan the game every night, and we've done this all year long. We plan the game. Obviously, there's nights where you have to rip it up, but we've talked through exactly what we want to do and when, and using (pitching coach) Carl (Willis), using the pitching staff, using the analytics, using everybody."

Smith, one of the Guardians' top relievers, relieved Matthew Boyd in the third inning Saturday and became the first bullpen arm in club history to appear in five games of an ALDS. (He also set an ALDS strikeout record.)

A few innings later, Tim Herrin joined him as the second such pitcher in club history to pitch in five ALDS games. And Clase, the top closer in baseball, appeared four times in the series. After blowing Game 2, he secured a six-out save to clinch the series Saturday.

The script ran contrary to the plan the Guardians employed the last time they were in an ALDS elimination game, back in 2022 against the Yankees. In that game, former manager Terry Francona employed a traditional approach. It didn't work, as starter Aaron Civale was shelled early, and their elite bullpen arms didn't enter the game until it was well out of hand at Yankee Stadium.

In this ALDS, Vogt and the Guardians were intent on having their best arms - their bullpen arms - enter games in at least neutral game-score situations.

Consider that the Guardians' starting pitchers combined for only 15 1/3 of the club's 44 innings pitched during the ALDS. In other words, the Guardians' bullpen absorbed 64% of the team's innings in the series.

We've documented how bullpen usage is generally increasing in the postseason - and in some recent postseasons, relievers have accounted for slightly more than half of the innings. But this approach from the Guardians was even more extreme.

The big question is just how sustainable it is for Cleveland.

While Smith told reporters he was feeling great physically after pitching in every game of the series, he and his bullpen mates won't have the same wealth of off days moving forward.

The Guardians had an unusual number of off days entering the ALDS and during it. Because they enjoyed a bye like the Yankees, they had a week between their last regular-season game and their first postseason contest.

The Guardians also had off days after the first, second, and fourth games of the series. There won't be as much opportunity for rest in the ALCS, as there are just two off days scheduled in a full seven-game series.

The Guardians will be hard-pressed to be this extreme. They'll have to get more innings out of starting pitchers like Boyd and journeyman Alex Cobb following ace Tanner Bibee.

Much of the Guardians' approach is rooted in necessity. They had only one starting pitcher that ranked in the top 100 of FanGraphs' WAR this season (Bibee).

After Shane Bieber injured his elbow in April, requiring Tommy John Surgery, and Triston McKenzie never got on track following his elbow injury last season, a team known for starting pitching development and talent was suddenly thin.

In a best-of-seven series, the Yankees can press an advantage they have with their starting pitchers. New York followed a much more traditional approach in the ALDS. The club's starting pitchers tossed 20 1/3 of 36 innings (56.4%).

This is in large part a financial advantage, as the Yankees signed free-agent starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon to nine-figure contracts in recent years. But not all the talent is imported, as 2017 first-round pick Clarke Schmidt was very good in his return from injury late this season and again in his ALDS start.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Schmidt will start Game 3 of the ALCS. Rodon will start Game 1, followed by Cole in Game 2. They also have Luis Gil, who won 15 games as a rookie, as another option. Could he be a high-leverage bullpen arm?

"You never know. You never know where a game takes you," Boone said.

"So, we'll just see. With the off days, I feel like we're still set up pretty good down there, but it is all hands on deck in these games, and you've got to be ready for any role."

Vogt has been focused on getting to his best arms as soon as possible, without being exposed late in games. Meanwhile, Boone is concerned with sticking with his best starters as long as possible, as he did with Cole for seven excellent innings in the Game 4 clincher against the Kansas City Royals.

These are two very different teams, and this series will feature two very different approaches.

The Yankees are a top-three payroll team - as are the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets in the LCS round - while the Guardians rank 25th.

New York can import stars seemingly at will, while the Guardians' sustained competitiveness is built upon draft and development, particularly on the pitching side.

Whichever team can better impose its pitching plan might be headed to the World Series.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.