Early trends emerging for Blue Jays amid up-and-down start

The 2025 season is in full swing and we're back with another season of Blue Jays takeaways. Here, we'll look at some notable storylines around the team and how they might impact things moving forward.

What's next after Guerrero extension?

The Blue Jays have their franchise pillar after inking Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a 14-year, $500-million contract extension. The team hopes Guerrero's presence will serve as an effective selling point to free agents.

With Guerrero's deal done, the focus shifts to how the front office can surround him with a competitive roster every year and the future of Bo Bichette. The shortstop is a free agent at the end of the season and recently mentioned he wants to continue playing alongside Guerrero. The Blue Jays and Bichette have yet to hold any contract talks, so he'll likely test free agency.

Even if Bichette walks, Toronto's biggest priority has to be finding ways to add younger and cheaper talent so the team isn't forced to rely on external routes to improving the roster. Consistently spending big in free agency isn't a realistic way to build a sustainable contender.

Blue Jays staying afloat without the long ball

Small ball has been the name of the Blue Jays' game through the first few weeks. The lineup's found different ways to plate runs as homers prove elusive.

The Blue Jays are tied for the fewest home runs in MLB (eight), and neither Guerrero nor Bichette has gone deep. Anthony Santander hit his first home run as a Blue Jay over the weekend in his return to Baltimore.

It hasn't been pretty, but the Blue Jays have done a nice job of routinely advancing a runner to third base and then putting the ball in play. Those runs are especially important when you have a pitching staff that's been as good as the Blue Jays' arms.

Toronto hitters have done an excellent job avoiding strikeouts this season: They are tied for the fourth-fewest strikeouts (113) and third-lowest K% at 18.3%.

Wins will eventually be harder to come by unless the team taps into more power. The home run is the great equalizer, freeing clubs from painstakingly stringing together hits in order to scratch runs across. It's at least somewhat encouraging that the Blue Jays are finding different methods of manufacturing runs, keeping them competitive until the long ball shows up.

Who is Easton Lucas?

Through his first two starts of the season, the answer looks like "a godsend." Lucas stepped into the rotation after Max Scherzer landed on the IL with a nagging thumb injury. Now Lucas is 2-0 with a 9.58 K/9, a 0.00 ERA, and a 1.81 FIP across 10 1/3 innings. Most were hesitant to buy in based on his first outing against the Washington Nationals. However, his stuff jumped off the screen in his tremendous start at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox. Lucas racked up eight strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings and induced multiple swinging strikes with his fastball, slider, sweeper, and changeup.

Lucas' emergence is all the more surprising after he struggled during spring, posting a 8.64 ERA with a .313 opponents' batting average in four appearances. Scherzer remains without a timetable to return, so the Jays will continue counting on Lucas to start. All of a sudden, the 28-year-old appears to be a very intriguing pitcher.

What's gotten into Springer?

George Springer entered the 2025 campaign in a state of uncertainty. The veteran outfielder's OPS declined from .907 in his first season with the Blue Jays in 2021 to .674 last season, capping off a four-year slide. His hard-hit rate bottomed out to a career-worst 30.3% in 2024. It was fair to question how much Springer had left in the tank entering his age-35 campaign. Would his spot in the lineup be in jeopardy at some point?

He's silenced his detractors in a big way to start the season, emerging as the Blue Jays' best offensive player. The complexion of the whole lineup changes if Springer can be a consistent contributor.

Springer's found a way to put the barrel on the baseball more frequently in 2025, producing much more hard contact. He entered play Sunday with an 18.2% barrel rate, an average exit velocity of 93.8 mph, and a hard-hit rate well over 50%. All of those numbers are in the 90th percentile or better among MLB hitters. Of course, this could be a case of small sample size - but Springer's had plenty of stretches throughout his career where he's scorched the ball. While he probably won't maintain these gaudy batted-ball numbers, they could still be a sign that he's made some tweaks and is in line to have a better campaign than many anticipated.

Suddenly, Springer's production has become something of a necessity in the lineup, and his status is worth monitoring after he left Sunday's game with a wrist issue. The Blue Jays deemed him day-to-day.

When should we start worrying about Kirk's bat?

The Blue Jays bet on Alejandro Kirk rediscovering his form as a hitter by inking him to a five-year, $58-million extension before the season began. Kirk came up as an offensively inclined catcher. However, since 2022, the script has flipped: Kirk's emerged as one of the league's better defensive backstops while his skills as a batter have declined. Kirk was a below-average offensive player in each of the past two seasons, and it's been more of the same to start 2025.

Kirk's swinging harder and making hard contact at the highest rate of his career when he connects. Unfortunately, the results aren't there yet; he's managed three extra-base hits in 46 at-bats. Kirk hit just 13 combined home runs across the 2023 and 2024 campaigns. It's become abundantly clear that the long ball is unlikely to be a major part of his toolkit.

The 26-year-old has also struggled to deliver in key spots, sporting a .200 average with runners in scoring position. It's too soon to panic - his approach at the plate and his contact skills are still strong - but there's mounting evidence that Kirk may not have much more than he showed over the last two seasons as a hitter.

Hoffman exactly as advertised

Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have relied on signing relievers to one-year deals with the Blue Jays. But they acted out of character in the offseason, giving a reliever a three-year contract for the first time since they took control of the team. The $33-million investment in veteran right-hander Jeff Hoffman looks incredible so far, as he's collected three saves and posted a 0.96 ERA over his first eight appearances.

He was particularly valuable in a recent win at Fenway Park, holding the Red Sox scoreless over two frames to help pull out a win in extra innings. The Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles both flagged Hoffman's shoulder during physicals, causing potential offseason agreements to collapse. Hoffman blew a kiss in the direction of the Orioles' dugout after shutting them out for two innings in a comeback win in Baltimore. The Jays took a calculated risk on Hoffman's shoulder, and it's paying early dividends in Toronto.