UFC 314 predictions: Will Volkanovski retake featherweight throne?
theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the UFC 314 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in Miami.
Featherweight championship
Alexander Volkanovski (26-4)
vs.
Diego Lopes (26-6)
Former champion Alexander Volkanovski is looking to make history when he takes on Diego Lopes for the vacant UFC featherweight title in Saturday's main event.
Fighters 35 and older are 0-17 in UFC title fights at lightweight and below. Volkanovski, 36, was unable to buck the trend in his last fight against Ilia Topuria, but he has a second chance against Lopes.
If he gets his hand raised, Volkanovski will be the first fighter 35 or older to win a title fight in the lighter weight classes, and he'll also be the first fighter to claim an undisputed championship after back-to-back losses.
Statistically, Volkanovski's back is up against the wall. But if anyone can overcome adversity, return to full form, and begin a second reign as featherweight champion, it's probably "The Great."
This fight could come down to whether or not Volkanovski's chin is gone. If it is, don't be too surprised if Lopes lands big punches and puts him away within the first two rounds. Lopes is ferocious on the feet and won't let Volkanovski off the hook if he hurts him.
But if Volkanovski weathers the storm - and I ultimately think he will - I see the Australian taking over midway through the fight and using his edge in experience to reach another championship.
The pick: Volkanovski, unanimous decision
Lightweight bout
Michael Chandler (23-9)
vs.
Paddy Pimblett (22-3)
This is the moment of truth for Paddy Pimblett: Is he ready to be a contender in the stacked lightweight division?
I've gone back and forth on this one way too many times, but yeah, I think Pimblett's ready.
Admittedly, it feels weird to be picking Pimblett - a blond, floppy-haired Liverpool native who was never truly expected to be a top contender - over Chandler, a former Bellator champion and UFC title challenger who has fought the who's who of the division. But the more I think about it, the more it seems like Pimblett has a better chance of outworking Chandler, and that'll be crucial if the fight goes to the scorecards.
Pimblett is undoubtedly a skilled grappler, but he's also become a competent striker as well. If Saturday's co-main event is on the ground, he'll almost certainly be winning, and if it's on the feet, it could be competitive. Chandler's best path to victory is a knockout, but Pimblett can take a punch - he's never been knocked out in 25 career fights.
Let's go with Paddy "The Baddy" to mix the martial arts and score his biggest win to date.
The pick: Pimblett, unanimous decision
Featherweight bout
Yair Rodriguez (19-5, 1 NC)
vs.
Patricio Freire (36-7)
Former Bellator two-division champion Patricio "Pitbull" Freire is getting a tough test in his long-awaited UFC debut.
And he's going to pass it.
On paper, Yair Rodriguez should probably win. He's five years younger than Freire and has a significant height and reach advantage. And this fight is almost surely going to play out on the feet. But something tells me Freire isn't going to let this big opportunity slip away. If he beats Rodriguez, he's suddenly in the top five of the featherweight division and either in line for the next title shot or one win away.
Freire is no stranger to having to beat people bigger than him, and he'll stay committed with his jab and low kick to secure a 1-0 start to his Octagon career.
The pick: Freire, unanimous decision
Featherweight bout
Bryce Mitchell (17-2)
vs.
Jean Silva (15-2)
This fight is either going to be really fun or really bad.
Bryce Mitchell is by far the biggest test of Jean Silva's young UFC career, and his grueling - but effective - wrestling style could grind Silva's momentum to a halt.
Or Silva could take a move out of Josh Emmett's playbook and score his fifth straight knockout victory.
It would be a shame if this fight turns out to be a stinker, given the anticipation surrounding it. Mitchell could play spoiler, but I'll side with Silva to land something big.
The pick: Silva, first-round TKO
Light heavyweight bout
Nikita Krylov (30-9)
vs.
Dominick Reyes (14-4)
Are we witnessing the resurgence of Dominick Reyes?
The former light heavyweight title challenger, just 17 months removed from a catastrophic four-fight losing streak, is now seeking his third consecutive victory against Nikita Krylov. And if Reyes does indeed beat Krylov and re-enter the top 10, he'll be approaching the title picture again - something that seemed impossible not long ago.
Krylov hasn't fought since a submission win over Ryan Spann in March 2023, but he remains a tough out for most at 205 pounds, including Reyes. But I think Reyes can stay just sharp enough on the feet to eventually find a finish late in the fight.
The pick: Reyes, third-round TKO
