NASCAR Championship: Breaking down the final 4 contenders

The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season has had more than its fair share of storylines, excitement, scares, and wild finishes. And now it all comes to this.

For the first time since 2018, a quartet of teams are represented in the Championship 4: Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott, Team Penske's Joey Logano, Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell, and Trackhouse Racing Team's Ross Chastain.

Here's a breakdown of the four contenders and why they could come out on top Sunday in Phoenix.

Chase Elliott

It's no surprise Elliott is the favorite to win the title. He's making his third straight Championship 4 appearance and is the most recent champion of the four contenders, having won in 2020.

After winning the regular-season championship with relative ease, the playoffs have been a struggle for the No. 9 team. Elliott has just three top-10 finishes in the playoffs, with the third only coming this past weekend at Martinsville after Brad Keselowski was disqualified for failing post-race inspection.

Elliott has been the fastest in the Cup Series on short tracks, leading in median lap speed.

Given his speed on short ovals, a long green-flag run to the finish would help Elliott's chances of capturing his second championship. On the flip side, a late caution could spell disaster. Elliott is a mere 22nd in the Cup Series in restart retention rate and has gained the fewest positions on restarts among championship contenders.

Joey Logano

Logano has flown under the radar en route to his fourth Championship 4 appearance. He's quietly racked up three wins and has consistently done what he's needed to do to pick up points.

Logano is by far the most experienced of the championship contenders. His 504 Cup Series starts are double Elliott's 252 and dwarf Chastain's 135 races and Bell's 94. In a pressure-filled, winner-takes-all event Sunday, Logano's experience may be a major advantage.

Phoenix Raceway shapes up as one of Logano's best tracks. His 425 laps led at this track since 2019 are the most in the Cup Series. His 6.3 average finishing position over these seven races at Phoenix ranks second, only behind Kevin Harvick.

Logano's 2022 campaign has been up and down at short tracks. He's recorded two wins at this track type (Darlington and Gateway) but also ranks lowest among the championship contenders in median lap speed. The No. 22 team's significant improvement from the spring's Richmond race (one lap led, 17th-place finish) to the summer's Richmond race (222 laps led, sixth-place finish) bodes well for a quality showing this weekend. Logano led four laps and finished eighth in the spring's Phoenix race.

Christopher Bell

Can Christopher "Clutch" Bell do it again? The driver of the No. 20 car captured the checkered flag in back-to-back must-win scenarios to keep his championship hopes alive, first at the Charlotte Roval in the Round of 12 and then Sunday at Martinsville.

Short tracks have been Bell's strong suit all season. He's finished in the top 10 at all but two of the 12 races at paved ovals shorter than 1.5 miles, picking up wins at New Hampshire and Martinsville in addition to a near victory at Richmond. Bell ranks fourth in median lap speed on this track type, just behind Elliott among the championship contenders. On raw speed, these are the two to beat at Phoenix.

Bell is in unfamiliar territory as he races for the Cup Series championship for the first time, but he has plenty of experience around him. His crew chief, Adam Stevens, won two championships with Kyle Busch and is making his sixth appearance in the Championship 4. Joe Gibbs Racing has had a representative in the championship race every season.

The No. 20 team's mix of speed, clutch performances, and experience atop the pit box may just prove to be the winning combination Sunday afternoon.

Ross Chastain

Ross Chastain is the biggest wild card this weekend. We saw just how much a shot at the championship means to him with his last-lap "video game move" around the wall at Martinsville. What is he willing to do to secure the actual championship at Phoenix?

As impressive as their season has been, Trackhouse have yet to find victory lane at a non-superspeedway oval. That will almost certainly have to change if Chastain is going to win the title; the championship winner has won the final race every season since the Championship 4 format was introduced.

While Elliott will be hoping for a green-flag run to the finish, a late-race caution could swing the race in Chastain's favor. He leads the Cup Series in positions gained on restarts and in retention rate. His aggression has made him plenty of enemies on the track, but it's also made him the best restarter in the Cup Series in 2022.

Chastain finished second at Phoenix in March following a restart with three laps to go. If the same scenario presents itself, you can rest assured Chastain will do everything possible to come out on top.

(Statistics source: Auto Racing Analytics)