2016-17 NBA Season Preview: Miami Heat
Welcome to theScore's 2016-17 NBA preview, where you'll find comprehensive coverage of all 30 teams and storylines to watch this season.
Miami Heat
2015-16
| Record | Southeast | East | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48-34 | 1st | 3rd | Lost in Round 2 (4-3 TOR) |
Offseason Roundup
| Additions | Departures |
|---|---|
| Dion Waiters (2 yrs/$5.9M) | Dwyane Wade (CHI) |
| Wayne Ellington (2 yrs/$12M) | Luol Deng (LAL) |
| Derrick Williams (1 yrs/$5M) | Joe Johnson (UTA) |
| James Johnson (1 yrs/$4M) | Gerald Green (BOS) |
| Willie Reed (2 yrs) | Amar'e Stoudemire (retired) |
| Luke Babbitt (trade w/ NOP) |
*Re-signed Hassan Whiteside (4 yrs, $98M), Tyler Johnson (4 yrs, $50M), Udonis Haslem (1 yr), and Beno Udrih (1 yr)
*Status of Chris Bosh (blood clots) remains uncertain; expected to part ways
Projected Starting 5
- PG: Goran Dragic
- SG: Tyler Johnson
- SF: Justise Winslow
- PF: Derrick Williams
- C: Hassan Whiteside
Player to watch: Hassan Whiteside
Imagine if someone had told you when the Heat signed Hassan Whiteside a month into the 2014-15 season that the late-blooming big man would be the face of the franchise within two years.
That's the spot Whiteside and the Heat now find themselves in after an era-ending summer in Miami.
With Dwyane Wade's legendary Heat career coming to a contentious end, and Chris Bosh's coming to an unfortunate and unceremonious demise, the burdens of the organization now fall squarely on Whiteside's shoulders. That could be as frightening for Heat fans as it is for opposing bigs.
On one hand, Whiteside is an interior terror who's averaged 13 points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks over the last two seasons, posting a two-year Player Efficiency Rating of 25.8, finishing second to Kawhi Leonard in defensive plays made per foul committed, and holding opponents under 47 percent at the rim.
25+ PER & .200+ Win Shares per 48, last 2 seasons:
| Player | PER | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 29.7 | .303 |
| Kevin Durant | 28.0 | .265 |
| Chris Paul | 26.1 | .262 |
| Russell Westbrook | 28.3 | .235 |
| Anthony Davis | 28.1 | .221 |
| James Harden | 26.0 | .234 |
| LeBron James | 26.8 | .221 |
| Hassan Whiteside | 25.8 | .229 |
On the other hand, while basic numbers and some advanced metrics paint Whiteside a superstar, a deeper dive reveals that perhaps his gaudy production merely amounts to empty calories.
Whiteside finished 81st in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus measurement last year, the Heat were barely better with him on the court compared to on the bench in each of the last two seasons (+0.8 per 100 possessions), the team's defense sometimes suffered as a result of his deviating from defensive schemes, he's a historically notorious ball-stopper on offense, and he often found himself watching crunch time from the bench.
Remember, too, that Whiteside's focus and maturity were among the factors holding him back from breaking through earlier in his career.
He has the talent to be a perennial All-NBA star, but it's also fair to question what may become of him now that he's secured his first big-money contract for a team that figures to play some inconsequential basketball for the next while.
Season expectations
With Whiteside at his best, a bounce-back year from Dragic, schematic wizardry from Erik Spoelstra, and contributions from youngsters like Winslow, Tyler Johnson, and Josh Richardson, the Heat could piece together a scrappy playoff squad that scares some of the East's more ambitious teams.
That's the absolute best-case scenario for a team that lost roughly 48.9 percent of its 2015-16 minutes through various transactions, however, and now must lean heavily on a mishmash of unproven, inconsistent talent.
The more sensible expectation is something along the lines of a 35-win season.