5 riskiest signings of the 2021 NBA offseason

Another hectic NBA offseason is almost in the rearview mirror.

Teams once again spent big during free agency to shore up weaknesses, but not all the moves will pan out.

Here are the five riskiest signings from this past summer.

Devonte' Graham, New Orleans Pelicans

Contract: 4 years, $47.3 million

New Orleans swung for the fences during free agency, clearing salary-cap space to reportedly pursue Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry. The Pelicans missed out on both and settled on Graham instead of matching the Chicago Bulls' offer sheet for Lonzo Ball.

Graham's contract isn't bad at face value. New Orleans needed to surround budding star Zion Williamson with more perimeter shooting, and Graham has connected on 37.4% of his triples over the last two seasons, including a 42.3% clip on catch-and-shoot threes in 2020-21. Additionally, the Kansas product can create out of the pick-and-roll and finished eighth in the Association in assists just two seasons ago.

However, the Pelicans gave up a lottery-protected 2022 first-round pick to acquire Graham through a sign-and-trade. He's also a downgrade defensively from Ball, and Graham joins a unit that surrendered the seventh-most points per contest last season.

Ball's chemistry with Williamson was evident during their time together, so moving on from that partnership is a risk, especially with rumors about the latter's long-term future in the Big Easy already swirling.

Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers

Contract: 5 years, $100 million

Cleveland didn't waste any time locking up Allen, but it's possible he could've been brought back at a lower price if the team was more patient. The Cavs held the right to match any offer for the young center after extending him a qualifying offer. While Allen reportedly attracted interest from multiple teams, it's unknown if any of those suitors were willing to table a nine-figure contract.

The Cavaliers' investment also came days after they selected USC standout Evan Mobley third overall in this year's draft. Like Allen, Mobley's natural position is at the five-spot, but his passing skills, ball-handling, and perimeter defensive ability may allow the pair to co-exist.

Still, the Cavs are rolling the dice without seeing Allen and Mobley play a single minute together. Neither is a proven outside threat, which could further complicate the club's floor-spacing issues. The Cavs will probably move forward with Mobley if their jumbo experiment fails, though finding a taker for Allen's $20-million annual salary will be difficult.

Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat

Contract: 3 years, $85 million

It was a big offseason for a pair of veteran floor generals. Paul received a four-year, $120-million deal from the Phoenix Suns, while Lowry will earn an average of $28.3 million throughout his contract. However, Paul's salary is only partially guaranteed for 2023-24 and isn't guaranteed over the final year, whereas Lowry and the Heat are locked in for the next three seasons.

Lowry is still performing at a high level into his mid-30s, and he's a stellar fit for the Heat on paper. He averaged 17.2 points, finished 17th in assist percentage, and shot nearly 40% from deep last season. The six-time All-Star makes Miami a legitimate contender in the East. But he made only 46 appearances in 2020-21 and exceeded 65 games played just once over the previous five campaigns.

Handing Lowry a fully guaranteed deal at nearly $30 million annually is a gamble, especially with his durability issues. Lowry's physical brand of basketball is part of what's endeared him to fans, though that style of play might not suit him well at this stage of his career.

Lauri Markkanen, Cleveland Cavaliers

Contract: 4 years, $67 million

The Cavs raised eyebrows again when they landed restricted free-agent forward Markkanen in a three-team sign-and-trade deal. Chicago didn't offer the 7-footer a rookie extension before the 2020-21 season, and Markkanen went on to endure another injury-plagued campaign, averaging career lows in scoring (13.6 points per game) and rebounding (5.3).

The native of Finland is a career 36.6% shooter from downtown, and he should provide some floor-spacing alongside Allen or Mobley. However, Markkanen's presence could slow the development of Mobley, as the young prospect has fewer avenues to playing time in the club's crowded frontcourt.

Cleveland also lost Larry Nance's defensive versatility as part of the acquisition, and the team sits only $4.7 million under the luxury tax, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks.

The Cavs will surely surpass their 22 wins from 2020-21, but they're nowhere close to title contention and won't have much wiggle room under the salary cap.

DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls

Contract: 3 years, $85 million

DeRozan has been a dependable scorer over the past eight seasons, averaging 22.8 points on 46.3% shooting. The four-time All-Star has built his career on an effective mid-range game while developing into a solid passer during his recent stint with the San Antonio Spurs. But although his shot creation and playmaking will inject some much-needed life into the Bulls' offense, he isn't a perfect fit with their current roster.

DeRozan will often share the court with co-stars Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. The three have been defensive liabilities throughout their careers, and sharing the rock may be an issue because all of them ranked among the NBA's top 50 in usage percentage last season. Additionally, Chicago paid a hefty price for DeRozan by including arguably their top defender Thaddeus Young, a first-round pick, and two second-rounders in the sign-and-trade deal.

There are more concerns next offseason when LaVine's contract expires. The 6-foot-5 guard will likely eat up most of Chicago's cap space while probably commanding a max deal. With LaVine's and DeRozan's salaries potentially on the books, the club won't hold much financial flexibility to improve on a core that hasn't established itself as a contender.