NBA weekend best bets: Time to buy into the Mavericks' run?

After a 2-0 record Wednesday, we once again split our NBA picks Thursday, cashing on the favored Warriors but losing our total bet on the Mavericks and Jazz. We won't be making that mistake again (see below).

Here are our best bets heading into the weekend.

Heat (-1.5, 221.5) @ Hawks
April 22, 7 p.m. ET

I'm struggling to find reasons to back the Hawks aside from a potential Trae Young explosion. That's always a possibility, but is it enough to bet on?

Not with the way the Heat are playing. They outclassed Atlanta in a Game 1 blowout, leading by as many as 32 points before throttling down late. Miami also pulled away in the third quarter of Game 2 behind a master class from two-way star Jimmy Butler (45 points), who relentlessly attacked a Hawks team still missing defensive anchor Clint Capela.

The Heat are deep enough to take the scoring pressure off Butler in Game 3, but another so-so game from Young will doom Atlanta's chances of climbing back into this series. There's little evidence to suggest he's finding his stride: He scored eight points against this elite Miami defense in Game 1, then turned it over 10 times in a sloppy Game 2 loss.

We've already seen two examples of teams going up 2-0 in dominant fashion. Both won the third game outright and covered for good measure. Don't let the narrative of teams rallying from down 0-2 compel you to bet on a Hawks squad that doesn't deserve the backing.

Pick: Heat -1.5

Bucks (-2.5, 222.5) @ Bulls
April 22, 8:30 p.m.

We were skeptical of the Bulls entering the playoffs after a lousy end to the regular season, but a strong showing in Game 1 gave us enough confidence to back them as big underdogs in Game 2. Sure enough, Chicago went toe-to-toe with the Bucks and stole an outright victory on the road to even this series.

That's bad enough for the defending champions, who haven't looked right through two games. Now, they'll have to right the ship without secondary star Khris Middleton, who's already been ruled out for at least the rest of this series with a knee injury.

Milwaukee went 7-9 this season in Middleton's absence and is a pedestrian 46-49 without him since he joined the team in 2013-14, per StatMuse. That includes a 44-37 mark in games with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who's never been without his longtime running mate in the playoffs. That puts immense pressure on the two-time MVP to create his own shot, even with the Bulls' defense likely to swarm him without the threat of Middleton making Chicago pay.

It may feel unsustainable for DeMar DeRozan to lead this group in the way he did in Game 2 (41 points), but he showed during the regular season that he's capable of putting this team on his back with incredible scoring runs. Given the Bucks' uncertain outlook sans their best shot-creator and wing defender, I'd expect DeRozan and Co. to seize on the opportunity to take a series lead.

Mavericks @ Jazz (-5, 211.5)
April 23, 4:30 p.m.

I'm tired of making excuses for the Jazz, who've now looked ineffective in three straight contests and lost outright twice. Apparently, the betting market doesn't feel the same way, pricing Utah as a favorite of at least five points for the fourth consecutive game in this series.

At some point, it's time to recognize that the Mavericks might have their opponents' number in this series. After hitting a franchise-record 22 threes in Game 2, Dallas followed that up with another 18 triples Thursday en route to a 126-118 win. That's tied for the most points the Jazz have allowed in a losing effort since Dec. 17.

The catalyst for that win was once again breakout star Jalen Brunson, who followed up his 41-point masterpiece with 31 points, including 24 inside the arc. He's toyed with Utah defenders at the point of attack, forcing the Jazz to flex their defensive muscles without Rudy Gobert cleaning up their mistakes.

That's long been the recipe for success against this team in the postseason, and I don't expect things to get any easier with Luka Doncic expected to make his long-awaited debut in Game 4. Even if he can't suit up, the Mavericks have proven capable of cracking the code on this Jazz defense and should do so again Saturday.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].