Can Keegan Murray push Kings beyond respectability?

With the 2024-25 campaign approaching, we're diving deep into some of the players we're most interested in watching. Next up: a young wing whose development can help a rejuvenated franchise dream bigger.

Previous entries: Damian Lillard, Darius Garland, Christian Braun, Jalen Green, Devin Vassell, Memphis Grizzlies, Jonathan Kuminga

After a joyous, galvanizing, drought-busting 2022-23 campaign, the Sacramento Kings were splashed with a bit of cold reality last season. That wasn't entirely unexpected, considering they were trying to build on their breakthrough under the weight of heftier expectations, with invariably worse injury luck, in a much more daunting Western Conference, against opponents better prepared for their breakneck pace and DHO-centric motion offense.

Even so, they were able to win 46 games, return to the postseason (if not the playoffs proper), and largely validate the successful blueprint Mike Brown and Co. established the year prior. In an era when teams are generally expected to fall into one of two buckets - trying to contend or trying to tank - it's all too easy for teams like the Kings to be derided or dismissed. But there's a lot to be said for rolling out an entertaining squad capable of consistently winning 45-50 games. And if any organization can attest to that, it's the one that recently spent 16 straight years in the lottery.

That's not to say the Kings are satisfied with where they settled in last season. They made one of the biggest moves of the summer by acquiring DeMar DeRozan in a sign-and-trade that also shipped out longtime starting power forward Harrison Barnes. And while there are loads of questions and possibilities regarding DeRozan's fit with this roster, the most interesting consideration regarding that splashy trade may be what it means for Keegan Murray.

The third-year wing is poised to slide up a position into that starting four spot vacated by Barnes, with the Kings likely to downsize by promoting defense-minded off-guard Keon Ellis (a point-of-attack pest who looks a lot more viable offensively than Davion Mitchell) to fill out the starting five around DeRozan, De'Aaron Fox, and Domantas Sabonis. In that alignment, Murray would have some absolutely essential responsibilities - things he's capable of that no one else in that projected lineup can replicate.

After a promising rookie season, Murray made a fairly unconventional second-year leap. His offensive counting stats nudged up only slightly, his 3-point shooting (his standout skill as a rookie) sharply declined (from 41% down to 36%), and his touch time and usage rate remained firmly in role-player territory. Most of Murray's strides came at the defensive end, where his newfound impact was probably the biggest reason the Kings catapulted from 24th to 14th in points allowed per possession.

He proved to be one of the league's better young perimeter stoppers: a great screen navigator for his size (6-foot-8 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan), with nimble feet and the ability to fluidly change direction and stay on balance when defending in isolation. After mostly being assigned to like-sized wings as a rookie, the Kings took to sticking Murray on primary creators of all stripes last year, shifty guards included. Though the late-season emergence of Ellis largely freed him of that responsibility, the fact Murray excelled in those matchups bodes very well for his ability to switch across three or four positions.

Murray's improvements also manifested in superb secondary rim-protection. He went from contesting 2.9 shots per game at the rim and allowing opponents to shoot 67.4% from there to challenging 3.6 per game and holding opponents to 59.5%, according to NBA Advanced Stats. That was a particularly important development given the Kings' base pick-and-roll coverage brings center Sabonis up to the level of the screen, relying on precise weak-side rotations and diligent low-man work behind him.

Now the Kings need Murray to build on that defensive foundation, while also leveling up at the other end to bolster an offense that slipped from first to 13th.

There's going to be even more pressure on his defense this year given the roster changes. Barnes wasn't a great defender, but he's both bigger and more proactive as a low man than DeRozan. As such, he represented a kind of buffer for Murray - an additional layer of paint protection that's been peeled away. It'll now fall almost entirely on Murray to provide that safety blanket for Sabonis in back-side help.

Murray still needs to add some strength to better deal with the jumbo wing creators of the world, and he could also stand to amp up his defensive playmaking, perhaps exchanging some of his sound conservatism for more aggression and ball pressure. For a team like Sacramento that thrives in the open floor, forcing live-ball turnovers has a multiplier effect, a way of turning defense into ultra-efficient offense.

When they're forced to operate in the narrower half court, the Kings are going to be extremely reliant on Murray's shooting, especially as a roving threat who can pull the trigger off of Sabonis handoffs. As a DHO recipient last season, Murray averaged more points per game than any other player in the league (just ahead of teammate Kevin Huerter) and scored more efficiently out of those plays than all but five guys who shot at least 100 times off of handoffs, per NBA Advanced Stats. Even given the dip in his 3-point accuracy from rookie to sophomore, he's going to be by far the most dangerous and highest-volume movement shooter in that starting group, now that Huerter looks bound for a bench role.

DeRozan's a much better overall offensive player than Barnes, but the exchange means swapping a guy who shot 39% on 4.7 3-point attempts per game last season for a guy who shot 33.3% on 2.8 attempts (and is at 29.6% on 1.8 per game for his career). Coupled with Sabonis, that means Sacramento's starters will feature two virtual non-threats from outside. Fox made a hugely consequential leap as a 3-point shooter last season, but that still leaves him with just one campaign as an above-average long-range marskman. Ellis has to prove he can convert last year's small-sample success (42% on 168 total attempts) to higher volume. So, it'll be super helpful if Murray can get closer to his elite rookie conversion rate than last year's middling mark.

Then there's the question whether he can do a bit more with the ball in his hands. To this point, he's shown next to nothing as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. He finished just 47 possessions out of the pick-and-roll last season, converting those possessions into only 29 points (shooting 13-for-42 with five turnovers). Over 84% of his field goals were assisted.

You can argue there's little functional difference between pick-and-rolls and the DHOs on which Murray's been so successful, and you can also argue the latter play type is more important for a team that features multiple on-ball creators and prefers to run its offense through Sabonis in the high post anyway. Still, the extent to which Murray has leaned into off-ball play is notable. You'd have hoped to see a bit more growth from him as a creator in year two.

That deficiency was felt most acutely when switching defenses were able to flatten out Sacramento's whir of cuts, screens, and handoffs last season. It exposed their lack of real dribble-drive threats outside of Fox and Malik Monk, and their lack of north-south wing athleticism. One of the main reasons the Kings regressed offensively is that they plummeted from 15th to 27th in rim frequency, and Murray (who had a 19th-percentile at-rim attempt rate) was a big part of the problem. He'll probably never have a ton of downhill juice, but he can certainly be more of a threat attacking closeouts. He can work to find more profitable passing avenues when he draws two to the ball on handoffs and pindowns. And he'll ideally develop the ability to dribble his way into the teeth of the defense more consistently.

Murray can still be a valuable role player even if he doesn't develop those skills; he showed as much in the Kings' thumping of the Warriors in their first play-in game last season, when he banged eight threes en route to a game-high 32 points. But that'll put a lot of pressure on his jumper, make his production subject to greater variance, and make him (and the Kings) more scheme-able in the playoffs.

Whatever happens, Murray feels like the swing piece who can potentially propel the Kings to greater heights than they reached the last two years.