Casciaro: With or without 'Melo, things as murky as ever for Knicks

With Carmelo Anthony telling the New York Observer that he wants to test free agency, Knicks fans are surely fearing another doomsday scenario for their beloved team. The truth, though, is that New York's future is as murky as ever, with or without Anthony.

The Knicks, boasting one of the oldest rosters in the NBA, are well into the luxury tax heading into the 2013-14 season despite the fact that they aren't as close to contention as they'd like to believe. Sure, the main components of a 54-win second round team are still in place, but with the Heat still the class of the East, the Bulls re-adding Derrick Rose, the Pacers continuing to evolve and the crosstown Nets loading up, it's tough to envision New York even winning a playoff round, let alone competing for a championship this year.

And between lucrative player options (Early Termination Options) for Amar'e Stoudemire ($23,410,988) and Andrea Bargnani ($11,500,000), plus the $14,596,888 that will be owed Tyson Chandler by then, not to mention guaranteed money for J.R. Smith, Raymond Felton and Pablo Prigioni, the Knicks would basically be a capped out team heading into the 2014-15 season as well, and that's without Anthony either re-signing or opting into a $23,333,405 option for that season. If he does stay, they'll be well into the tax again.

The hope in New York right now would have to be that Carmelo is extended, the Knicks can remain at least a playoff team for the next two years and then can add another potential max salary player in 2015, when players like Kevin Love and Rajon Rondo, to name just a couple, could be free agents.

Until then, it will be virtually impossible for the Knicks to get much better with little to no financial wiggle room, few desirable young players and a laughable lack of upcoming draft picks (The Knicks have just two picks - a 2015 1st rounder and a 2017 1st rounder - over the next four years after trading the majority of them, with the potential to keep a third - their 2016 second rounder - if it falls between 31-37).

In other words, barring significant injuries to the Eastern Conference's elite and barring a major free agency splash a full 21 months from now, the Knicks seem likely to be an expensive first or second round playoff team in the immediate future, with the prospects of being a pick-less lottery team in the seasons to follow.

The other scenario, of course, is that the Knicks sign-and-trade Anthony in the event the 2013 scoring champion elects to leave The Big Apple, potentially netting the franchise some desperately needed assets like young players and draft picks. In that scenario, the Knicks' reward for wasted seasons and clearing cap space would end up being a lone division title, a few playoff trips and another long rebuild, though you can make the argument the same is inevitable even with Anthony in the fold.

Perhaps Dan Le Batard was on to something in his post-Decision Big Three rant when he welcomed New York "to another decade of irrelevance."

All salary figures courtesy of shamsports.com