We are down to the final four.
The Oklahoma City Thunder need to go through Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference finals if they want to retain their crown. Neither team has to worry about a potential matchup against the East's top seed, however, after the Cleveland Cavaliers bounced the No. 1 Detroit Pistons to set up a conference finals date with the New York Knicks.
We rank the four potential combinations of teams in the NBA Finals, which begin June 3.
4. Spurs vs. Cavaliers
Key matchup: Victor Wembanyama vs. Jarrett Allen
There's nothing inherently bad about a possible matchup between San Antonio and Cleveland, but one scenario has to rank last, and there aren't a ton of common threads between the two franchises.
It would be fascinating to see how the Spurs try to get the best out of Wembanyama against a swarming Cavs defense. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen would likely both attempt to prevent the 7-foot-4 star from getting comfortable inside. Cleveland won both regular-season meetings against San Antonio in December, but Wembanyama only played in the rematch; the Spurs star finished with 26 points but shot 7-of-16 in that Dec. 29 loss, while Mobley and Allen combined for 43 points on 18-of-34 shooting.
One very loose connection between the franchises adds an interesting - albeit trivial - layer to a possible Finals meeting. LeBron James' first trip to the Finals with the Cavaliers in 2007 ended in a sweep at the hands of an experienced Spurs dynasty led by Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and former head coach Gregg Popovich. A 2026 rematch would reverse their roles, with San Antonio boasting a generational star in his early 20s going up against a Cavs side with considerable playoff experience (though not as much as those classic Spurs squads).
3. Thunder vs. Cavaliers
Key matchup: Chet Holmgren vs. Evan Mobley
After years of falling short on the Utah Jazz, Donovan Mitchell would make his first NBA Finals appearance in his fourth season in Cleveland. James Harden would return to the championship stage for the first time since he lost in five games to the Miami Heat in 2012 - his last act as a member of the franchise that now stands between him and his first career title in this potential matchup.
The Thunder would be a daunting opponent for a Cleveland team that, until this year, hadn't escaped the second round since being swept in the 2018 Finals by the Golden State Warriors. There's arguably no better claim to legitimacy in sports than beating the defending champs to win it all, and the Cavs are ostensibly built with that goal in mind. Their two-big lineup of Allen and Mobley should help counter the Thunder going super big with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein - Oklahoma City's fifth-most used duo in these playoffs, which owns a plus-20 net rating in 156 minutes.
2. Spurs vs. Knicks
Key matchup: Victor Wembanyama vs. Karl-Anthony Towns
There's no simple way to stop Wembanyama, but it would be fascinating to see Knicks head coach Mike Brown try to throw him some curveballs. At various points in their two regular-season meetings, the Knicks had Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Mitchell Robinson defending the towering Frenchman. None of them bothered Wembanyama much: He averaged 28 points on 62.1% shooting.
The Spurs phenom can catch any lob that's in his vicinity. When Wembanyama puts the ball on the floor or is in motion off the ball, he's simply too quick for Towns or Robinson. Anunoby and Bridges have the mobility to chase Wembanyama around screens and the length to be somewhat disruptive, but the center can simply face up and shoot above either player.
Wembanyama presents all sorts of challenges on the defensive end, too, but Towns might be the key to mitigating his advantages. The Knicks star has developed into one of the Association's top 3-point shooting big men, and he can also drag Wembanyama away from the paint with his passing. Brown has leaned into using Towns as a playmaking hub during the Knicks' seven-game winning streak in the playoffs, with the center averaging eight assists during that span. His ability to facilitate in the high post has added a new wrinkle to New York's offense.
1. Thunder vs. Knicks
Key matchup: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. OG Anunoby
A Thunder-Knicks matchup could start a dynasty or end a 53-year championship drought. Both teams are led by All-NBA point guards who are likely the key to their respective club's championship hopes.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had his way with the Knicks in two regular-season meetings, averaging 28 points on 50% shooting to go along with six assists and three boards per game. The reigning Finals MVP consistently slithered to the rim, knocked down pull-up jumpers, created for others off the drive-and-kick, and got to the charity stripe. Anunoby is best suited to guard Gilgeous-Alexander, but the latter still managed to shoot 6-of-12 from the field this season when the Knicks forward served as his primary defender.
Brunson was similarly effective versus Oklahoma City, registering 24 points and 10 assists per game across two matchups. The three-time All-Star found success with floaters in the lane, hitting cutters, creating separation on step-backs, and setting up Anunoby for threes in pick-and-pop scenarios. Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace were tasked with keeping Brunson in check during the regular season and would likely split those duties again if the Thunder and Knicks meet in the Finals.
