5 pressing questions ahead of the 2015 NBA Draft
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Get an in-depth look at the top prospects in this year's class, what each team needs to do with their picks, mock drafts, and more leading up to the 2015 NBA Draft, which takes place June 25 in Brooklyn.
The draft is almost upon us, and as with most years, there are far more questions than answers a few days out.
Smoke screens, misinformation, bluffs, and downright lies are far more prevalent than leaked or earnest truths, serving to make this week the most confusing - and exciting - of the year. What follows is our best effort at making heads or tails of some of the biggest questions out there, 72 hours away.
Will the Lakers or Knicks mess this up?
Two of the league's marquee franchises have bottomed out, though hardly on purpose. The New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers both posted the worst records in franchise history, and they flipped positions at the draft lottery, so the Lakers will select second and the Knicks fourth.
With poor roster management a staple of the past two-plus years and the incentive to win now strong for each, it's more than fair to question whether fans are in for disappointment or drama on draft night.
For the Lakers, juggling the need to build for the post-Kobe Bryant era with the desire to give him one last playoff run in 2015-16 must be difficult. General manager Mitch Kupchak has said Bryant won't have input and that the team will take the best player available - the correct move - but they've also shown a willingness to deal the pick if a quality veteran becomes available.
With little chance of adding to the young core of Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson in 2016 - they lose their pick unless it lands in the top three - keeping the pick is the prudent move. It sounds as if Jahlil Okafor is the guy in that case, which is tough to fault.
The Knicks, meanwhile, have been linked to absolutely everyone but are still open to trading the pick. They shouldn't. Even with Carmelo Anthony in his later prime years, and the advantage of playing in the weaker Eastern Conference, the Knicks aren't close to championship contention.
If that's the ultimate goal, then the move is to take the best player available, whether he fits the triangle, shoots too many threes, or whatever else Phil Jackson may be concerned about. Ultimate upside should rule for a 17-win team with exactly one above-average player under guaranteed contract.
Will teams fear the unknown, and should they?
Three of the top-10 picks in the draft will likely be international players. That signals that teams aren't necessarily afraid of foreign players they know less intimately, but given the talent at hand, it's possible teams could still be underrating this year's mysterious triumvirate.
- Kristaps Porzingis, likely to land in the top five, is an enticing scorer looking to break the skinny European archetype. Some executives question if he's actually the best player in the draft.
- Mario Hezonja, who probably won't slide past No. 8, is an insanely confident wing who is getting better as his season progresses, playing big minutes in the finals of the second-best league in the world.
- Emmanuel Mudiay, a sure top-10 pick, was a more highly regarded point guard than D'Angelo Russell before getting NBA-ready in China.
It's strange to think, but even these three going in the five-to-10 range may undersell the imported talent in the 2015 class.
Can the 76ers and Celtics realistically use all these picks?
The Atlantic Division is going to be busy Thursday, with the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers making up 16.7 percent of the draft's 60 selections.
| 76ers | Celtics |
|---|---|
| 3 | 16 |
| 35 | 28 |
| 37 | 33 |
| 47 | 45 |
| 58 | |
| 60 |
A perpetual roster shuffle has the Celtics and 76ers sitting on an embarrassment of draft riches, both this year and in the future. But there's little chance these picks all manifest as 2015-16 contributors, with both teams likely to deal or make longer-term plays, especially in the second round.
The Celtics will probably use one first-round pick on a flier, someone with a higher upside and a longer path, like the injured Chris McCullough or the red-flag-laden Robert Upshaw.
The 76ers will likely use at least two of their second-rounders on international players who can be stashed overseas for a year or more with their draft rights retained, even though that pool of players is quite thin. Michael Qualls, an intriguing second-round pick before he tore his ACL, is a possibility.
Which picks are most likely to be traded?
Boston and Philly will be among the teams active in making deals, with the Celtics looking to move up and the Sixers likely to trade a pick or two for future considerations rather than make six selections.
The six-to-10 range of the draft is particularly interesting, as the Sacramento Kings (No. 6), Detroit Pistons (No. 8), and Miami Heat (No. 10) all want to win soon; the Denver Nuggets (No. 7) want to move up or acquire another pick; and the Charlotte Hornets (No. 9) could safely trade down and land the shooter they need.
There could be plenty of movement in the 20s - the Knicks want to add a second pick, the Nets want to move up, and the Cleveland Cavaliers (Nos. 24, 53) can be considered a likely candidate to trade. Given everything up in the air with the Cavs' roster, they may be the team to keep an eye on again this year, either at or shortly after the draft.
Teams trading away first-round picks should be careful - the extreme salary-cap jumps expected over the next several seasons will make players on rookie-scale contracts even more valuable. Here's a look based on current estimates:
| 2015 Pick | 2015-16 Salary ($M) | 2017-18 Salary ($M) | % of 2015-16 Cap | % of 2017-18 Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.70 | 6.22 | 8.5% | 5.8% |
| 5 | 3.74 | 4.08 | 5.6% | 3.8% |
| 10 | 2.48 | 2.71 | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| 20 | 1.51 | 1.65 | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| 30 | 1.13 | 1.23 | 1.7% | 1.1% |
Will league trends impact draft decision-making?
Positional ambiguity is becoming more and more important for defenses, making multi-position defenders like Willie Cauley-Stein and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson intriguing pieces. Being labeled a "tweener" is no longer a death knell, and combo-guards and combo-forwards, especially those with passing or shooting ability in the latter case, are actually en vogue.
But the Golden State Warriors - and several other successful teams - leaning heavily on outside shooting hurts a player like Hollis-Jefferson, and the increasing need for bigs to be able to either shoot or make plays has worked to limit the stock of the offensively limited Cauley-Stein.
The way the modern NBA game is moving has made positional versatility incredibly important and put an onus on those same players to develop skill versatility, too. There remains a place for single-skill specialists, particularly shooters like Devin Booker, but today's non-star rotation players need to be able to provide a little bit of everything.