March Madness bubble watch: Who needs conference tourney magic?

The NCAA Tournament is the main event, but the major conference tourneys the week leading into Selection Sunday can often be just as dramatic.

While many teams are battling for seeding, the automatic bid for each major conference tournament winner offers many underwhelming programs a last-chance lifeline to make March Madness.

Here's how each major conference tournament looks heading into the start of action Tuesday.

SEC

Locks: Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Missouri

The SEC's depth this season is basically unmatched, with nine teams entering the conference tournament as virtual locks for March Madness. Still, there's plenty to play for, as Auburn, Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee are all eyeing No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

Don't lose early: Georgia, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma

The opening-round game between Georgia and Oklahoma will be one of the most anticipated across the major conference tournaments. The winner is essentially set for the NCAA tourney, while the loser faces a nervy Selection Sunday. Vanderbilt needs to avoid getting upset by Texas in the opening round to book a contest with Texas A&M, a matchup the Commodores won a couple of weeks ago.

Need a run: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas

John Calipari could miss the NCAA Tournament in his first season with Arkansas unless the Razorbacks get hot this week. The program takes on last-place South Carolina in the first round, but the Gamecocks throttled Arkansas by 19 points two weeks ago. A win for the Razorbacks would book a second-round contest with Ole Miss, and a victory there would undoubtedly have Calipari breathing easier on Selection Sunday.

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Oregon, UCLA, Illinois, Maryland

The Big Ten doesn't quite have the SEC's firepower this season, but eight teams should feel confident with their spot as they enter the conference tournament. Michigan State has plenty of motivation for this week's action as it has an outside shot at nabbing a No. 1 seed. And Michigan is still a lock despite a collapse down the stretch. The Wolverines finished the campaign with a 14-6 conference record but somehow have a negative point differential in those games.

Don't lose early: Indiana, Ohio State

Saturday's bubble contest between Indiana and Ohio State essentially flipped the teams in Joe Lunardi's ESPN bracket. The Hoosiers leapfrogged the Buckeyes with the victory and now sit ahead on the list of the final eight teams in the field. That puts plenty of pressure on both squads to deliver in the Big Ten Tournament. Indiana gets a bye to the second round before a date with Oregon, while Ohio State opens with Iowa.

Have to win tourney: Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, USC, Iowa

Big 12

Locks: Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, BYU, Kansas

Houston is undoubtedly one of the best teams in the country and should be a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. Along with the Cougars, Iowa State, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona, and Kansas are firmly in the field.

Don't lose early: West Virginia, Baylor

If the NCAA tourney started today, it's probably a safe bet that West Virginia and Baylor would both be in. However, an early loss in the Big 12 Tournament could be enough to convince the committee to look elsewhere. The Mountaineers face the winner of TCU and Colorado, while the Bears get Arizona State or Kansas State.

Have to win tourney: Cincinnati, TCU, Kansas State, UCF, Utah, Arizona State

Big East

Locks: St. John's, Marquette, UConn, Creighton

St. John's can make a final seeding impression on the committee with a strong showing in the Big East Tournament. Three other teams from the conference should feel comfortable with their place, including two-time defending champion UConn.

Need a run: Xavier, Villanova

Xavier probably needs one or two wins to feel safe, as Lunardi currently has the Musketeers in a slot to make the NCAA Tournament. However, Villanova doesn't have that luxury and will need a deep run to catch the committee's attention. That begins with last-place Seton Hall in Round 1 before a potential quarterfinal date with UConn.

Have to win tourney: Butler, Providence, DePaul, Seton Hall, Georgetown

ACC

Locks: Duke, Clemson, Louisville

It feels unfathomable the ACC would only have three locks entering the conference tournament, but that's the world we live in this season. All three will be playing for seeding only, with Duke looking to cement its place as one of the four No. 1 seeds.

Need a run: North Carolina, SMU, Wake Forest

Unless one of these three teams makes a run in the ACC tourney, the conference will send just three representatives to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000. Given that the conference now has 18 members instead of the nine held then, it's safe to say 2025 has been a disaster for the league. That can be slightly salvaged by one of this trio making noise in the conference tourney and nabbing one of the final at-large bids.

Have to win tourney: Stanford, Cal, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Florida State