NCAA tourney bubble betting: Who's in, who's out from major conferences
Is there a better postseason in sports than college basketball's? Probably not. With the regular season in the rearview, it's time for the madness. Before the NCAA Tournament begins next week, the major conference tournaments serve as an appetizer.
A few teams on the bubble must prove their worth to the selection committee over the next week if they want to join the Big Dance. Let's look at a few bubble teams' odds of earning a bid on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet and how to bet on the number of teams from each conference that will go dancing.
To make the NCAA Tournament odds
| Team | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | +500 | -1000 |
| Ohio State | +250 | -350 |
| Xavier | -240 | +180 |
North Carolina had a prime opportunity to punch its ticket last Saturday when it hosted Duke. A win would've bolstered the Tar Heels' resume enough to put them on the right side of the bubble. North Carolina only trailed by one at halftime, a promising sign. However, Duke outscored North Carolina by 12 in the second half to pull away with a comfortable road win. The Tar Heels have work to do in the ACC Tournament. Of course, they'll earn an automatic bid if they win the tourney - they have the fourth-best odds at +2500 behind Duke, Louisville, and Clemson, the only three ACC teams guaranteed bids.
UNC finished 13-7 in an incredibly weak conference. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has the Tar Heels as his second team out as of Monday. If they win the first two ACC Tournament games against inferior opponents, they'll likely match up with the Blue Devils in the semifinals. North Carolina's only chance of getting in the tournament would be to defeat the nation's No. 2 team in the rivals' third meeting this season.
Lunardi projects Ohio State as one of the last four teams in, but oddsmakers are surprisingly doubting its chances. The Buckeyes finished 10th in the Big Ten and will play Iowa in their first Big Ten Tournament game. With a win, Ohio State will take on Illinois, a prime opportunity to boost its resume. Although Ohio State has three Quad 2 losses, it has six Quad 1 wins. It also competes in a more difficult conference than North Carolina and Xavier. The Buckeyes have favorable metrics compared to other bubble teams, ranking 34th on KenPom and 36th in the NET. There's a greater chance of hearing their name called on Sunday than the odds suggest, which could make them worth a bet.
Xavier is the last team in the dance, according to Lunardi's projections. The Musketeers finished 13-7 in the Big East but must make some noise in their conference tournament to help their chances, especially with bid stealers lurking. There will inevitably be at least one team with no chance of earning an at-large bid that improbably wins its conference tournament and earns an automatic bid - like last year's NC State squad, which rode that momentum to the Final Four.
When that happens, certain teams' bubbles will burst. Xavier could be in that group.
Over/Under teams from each conference in the field
| Conference | # of teams | Over/Under odds |
|---|---|---|
| SEC | 12.5 | -200/+160 |
| Big Ten | 9.5 | +150/-190 |
| Big 12 | 7.5 | -350/+250 |
The SEC will likely make history on Selection Sunday by breaking the Big East's 2011 record for the most teams from a single conference to earn an NCAA Tournament bid. The current record is 11 teams, but the SEC should have at least 12 teams selected - six of which may be 3-seeds or better. Here are the locks:
- Auburn
- Florida
- Alabama
- Tennessee
- Kentucky
- Texas A&M
- Ole Miss
- Missouri
- Mississippi State
- Vanderbilt
- Georgia
Arkansas isn't considered a lock because it's technically on the bubble as one of Lunardi's last four byes. However, Arkansas' one-point win over Mississippi State on Saturday should be enough for the Razorbacks to earn a spot. Oklahoma is on the right side of the bubble as one of Lunardi's last four in, but a bid stealer could knock out the Sooners. The odds are heavily priced toward over 12.5 teams for the SEC, so oddsmakers think Oklahoma is safe for now. The only other SEC team with a chance is Texas, but it's on the first-four-out line. The Longhorns need an epic SEC Tournament run to propel them into the picture.
Nine teams is the most the Big Ten has ever sent to the tournament. The coast-to-coast conference could eclipse that mark in its first season as an expanded, 18-team group. Here are the Big Ten locks:
Indiana is technically on the bubble, but it would be shocking if the Hoosiers didn't make it after winning four of their final five games.
Ohio State would be the 10th Big Ten program. Oddsmakers don't believe in the Buckeyes' chances, so the under 9.5 teams is offered at shorter odds. As previously discussed, the Buckeyes have a solid case based on their metrics and resume. However, things could down to bid stealers playing spoiler. Nebraska was in the field of 68 a few weeks ago but lost its final five games of the season, killing its chances. While the Cornhuskers are still listed as a next-four-out team, they have no shot after failing to qualify for the Big Ten Tournament.
Now on to the Big 12, a typically top-heavy conference. However, its depth should produce eight tournament bids. The seven locks are as follows:
Baylor is the only questionable team, but it's currently listed as one of the last four byes. The Bears' nonconference wins over Arkansas and St. John's are enough to gift the Big 12 its eighth team in the dance.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.