Where are the upsets? Favorites dominate March Madness' opening rounds

The appeal of March Madness is the unpredictability, upsets, and possibility of an unknown school embarking on a magical run. That hasn't been the case this year. There isn't a single mid-major school in this year's Sweet 16, which instead features teams from only four major conferences (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC) for the first time in NCAA Tournament history.

Entering the postseason, at least one top-four seed had lost in the opening round in 15 of the past 16 tournaments. All 16 top-four seeds advanced to the Round of 32 this year. St. John's was the only 2-seed to lose in the second round when No. 10 Arkansas ended the Johnnies' season. Arkansas is the only team lower than a 6-seed in the Sweet 16, meaning there's a good chance the Final Four doesn't feature a 7-seed or higher for just the second time in 12 years.

Bettors hoping for underdog upsets have been left disappointed. Had a bettor made a wager to win $100 on every favorite's moneyline in the first two rounds, you would have profited roughly $930. If you had used the same strategy last year, you would have lost roughly $250 (even though 40 favorites covered the spread last season, tied for the most in a tournament since at least 1985, according to ESPN).

St. John's, a 6.5-point favorite over Arkansas, was the largest moneyline upset from the weekend. Favorites went 37-11 straight up in the first two rounds and 27-21 against the spread.

NIL has led to college basketball's rich becoming richer and shrunk the sport's high-level talent distribution. The best players have no incentive to attend, or stay at, a mid-major if high-major programs can pay them substantially more. The results have led to a different kind of tournament, where upsets and Cinderella runs are even more improbable and the top teams create thrilling matchups later on.

While upsets are popular during March Madness, bettors still tend to side with favorites. This created a successful weekend for bettors, particularly on Sunday, and a disappointing one for sportsbooks.

"The first three days were somewhat a split decision, with some results good for the public while some were in our favor," said Adrian Horton, head of North American trading at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. "Sunday was a different story with favorites holding serve across the board. With a lot of favorites covering and almost all winning outright, it was a good day for bettors, especially those with moneyline parlays."

Although the national title favorites shortened their odds as the field was cut from 64 to 16 over the last four days, the schools atop the oddsboard remain unchanged.

National title odds

Duke has won 29 of its last 30 contests and dominated its first two tournament games, winning by an average margin of 33.5. The Blue Devils remain the favorites to cut down the nets and are the most considerable favorite to advance to the Elite Eight - 8.5 points over Arizona on Thursday.

Florida has the second-best odds after a resilient Round of 32 win over two-time defending champion UConn. However, the Gators have the longest odds to advance to the Elite Eight among 1-seeds as 6.5-point favorites over Maryland. The four 1-seeds have the best odds to win the title, with a drastic drop-off from 1-seed Auburn (+550) to 2-seed Alabama (+1600). Auburn and Houston are huge favorites over Michigan and Purdue, respectively.

Thirteen of the past 17 champions were 1-seeds, so oddsmakers are rightfully assuming one of those four teams will celebrate in San Antonio.

Sportsbooks are rooting against Duke, which is a widespread choice among bettors. The Blue Devils have garnered 27% of the money wagered and 22% of the bets to win the title. Florida is the second-most popular team with 21% of the money and 18% of the bets.

As the tournament landscape changes and favorites reign supreme early, everyone might have to recalibrate how to approach the first few rounds. But the one thing that shouldn't change: One of the top seeds will eventually cut down the nets in April.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.