Analysis: Is Lane Kiffin taking a risk jumping to FAU?

Lane Kiffin will leave the Alabama sidelines after the college football playoffs to become head coach at Florida Atlantic University.

Kiffin, who's restored his reputation as the Crimson Tide’s offensive coordinator, is now eager to take over a program that hasn’t won more than three games in the last three seasons and hasn’t been bowl eligible since 2008.

Is the risk worth it for Kiffin?

On one hand, taking over a struggling program means he gets to build it from scratch. Since Florida Atlantic doesn’t have a foundation of recent success, Kiffin has the opportunity to put his imprint on the program by instilling his principles and vision.

For a coach looking for a challenge and a way to prove himself, this is a unique opportunity. The program is newer, as the Owls didn’t have a football team until 2001. Since then, and especially as of late, it’s been more "Charlie Brown trying to kick the football" moments for the program, which in some regards draws parallels to Kiffin’s career.

After all, Kiffin had it all going for him. He coached the Oakland Raiders at 32, then moved on to head coaching stints at Tennessee before ditching them after one season to go back to USC where he was fired in 2013. He arrived in Tuscaloosa knowing he needed to prove himself. Therefore, after rejuvenating the Crimson Tide offense over the past three seasons, this move seems unusual to some.

At the same time, it wasn’t as if he didn’t try to land positions elsewhere. He interviewed with Houston, but the administration tabbed offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to take over the head coaching duties instead. In the past, Kiffin was rumored for the Maryland job, but he didn’t receive the offer there either.

Therefore, it’s easy for some to come to the conclusion this is all there is for Kiffin. That he must start at the bottom and prove himself again. In many ways, this sets up a redemption story for him, if he can build the program.

However, that won’t be easy. Even though he'll take over a struggling program and his name recognition should help attract talent, he'll have plenty of competition particularly in acquiring in-state recruits. He'll be going against the likes of Charlie Strong, who just took over at USF. Then, there’s Butch Davis at FIU and Scott Frost at UCF.

Of course, there are elite teams like Ohio State, Alabama, and Clemson who all come to the state to attract talent. Though the recruiting grounds are fertile, it’s no sure thing Kiffin will be able to attract the talent he wants given the competition he faces.

Which leads to the next question: is this gamble worth the risk for Kiffin?

While no one is expecting him to work the magic P.J. Fleck did at Western Michigan, this is Kiffin’s chance to turn around a program and, in the process, help him earn respect at some of the biggest football programs.

However, there’s another side to this. What if Kiffin is unable to turn the Owls around?

If he's unsuccessful in Boca Raton, how will he recover? The chances of him landing another head coaching job in the foreseeable future will be in jeopardy. While it’s unlikely it would hurt him receiving another offensive coordinator stint at a big school given his success at Alabama, it’s clear Kiffin wants to run a program.

Therefore, he weighed his opportunities and now has the chance to turn around a program that's struggling to find its identity. It’s a risky gamble that could result in his last head coaching opportunity. At the same time, if he's able to have success there, it could lead to him becoming one of the bigger coaching commodities, bringing him back to where his career was heading six years ago.