If you're a college football fan, which you probably are if you're reading this, then you've likely been itching for bowl season to begin. Well, here it is!
As we unwrap our first Christmas presents, we find a pair of double-digit point spreads to kick off the unofficial holiday betting season.
Bahamas Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo (-10.5, 50)
Line history
Even though the games aren't until mid-to-late December or early January, it can be crucial to bet bowl game openers on the Sunday that games are announced. It also informs us about what sharp bettors think of the matchups.
This game opened under 10 on Sunday and was available to the public at Toledo -9. Recognizing value on the Rockets, bettors took the favorite, pushing the line over double digits within a couple of days.
The total has come down from 54.5 points to 50 in a game that is historically affected by wind.
On the field
Middle Tennesee is the big winner of bowl season before any game is even played. A 17-point fourth quarter against Florida Atlantic gave the Blue Raiders a comeback win, bowl eligibility, and a trip to the Bahamas. How's that for a reward after a season that featured wins over the likes of Monmouth (FCS), UConn (1-11), Southern Miss (3-9), and FIU (1-11)?
Middle Tennessee brings the 91st-ranked offense (per ESPN's SP+) into a game where they're just happy to be there against Toledo and its 20th-ranked defense. The Rockets are probably disappointed in a season that didn't have them playing for the MAC title in Detroit, but they certainly have reason to be engaged in this game.
Freshman quarterback Dequan Finn took over midway through the season, and the Rockets could be on a seven-game winning streak since he became the full-time starter if not for a rough 10-minute stretch against Eastern Michigan and an overtime loss at Central Michigan. Finn's 16-1 TD-INT ratio tells me to expect an offense that is better than its seasonlong metrics indicate, and there should be excitement within the program for next year.
The Blue Raiders are on their third and fourth quarterbacks, and the trip to Nassau feels more like a season-ending vacation rather than the start of something promising. I have Toledo -9 and see no reason why I should consider buyback on Middle Tennessee.
Pick: Toledo -10.5
Cure Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina (-10.5, 63)
Line history
Strangely, the line movement for the past two weeks has mirrored that of the Bahamas Bowl, with Coastal Carolina starting as favorites of just over a touchdown before being pushed through -10.
The total has barely moved, opening at 64 and dropping just a point over 12 days.
On the field
Despite rumors that Grayson McCall could transfer after the season, it appears the star quarterback will be at the helm for this game, meaning Northern Illinois' 115th-ranked defense (according to SP+) is tasked with slowing down an explosive Chanticleers unit that ranked 12th.
It's heartening for Chants' backers that Coastal wants to avenge their Cure Bowl loss against Liberty last season, as NFL prospect tight end Isaiah Likely appears willing to play as well.
Many of the advanced metric-based projections make this line a bit bigger. So while I like my bet of Chanticleers -9, there's reason to back the Huskies at the bigger number if you think they can use their run game to hang around and find some points via turnovers and special teams plays.
As discussed in my ATS confidence rankings, there's no reason to go wild on the first day of bowl season, as there are better bets to make.
Pick: Pass, unless CC -9.5 reappears, use NIU +10.5 for contrarian pool play
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
