It took until the 13th game of bowl season for the first bad beat. Ahead of the Independence Bowl, Louisiana was a seven-point underdog to Houston when we recommended a bet on the Ragin' Cajuns in this space last week.
The first step to being profitable is getting the best line possible. The mission for closing line value was accomplished when Louisiana was bet down off of a touchdown to +5.5 on game day. Despite Louisiana leading 16-6 at halftime, it was tied late. Instead of running down the clock and kicking, the Cougars threw for a touchdown, pushing a ticket with the best of the number - a lesson that price matters but doesn't guarantee anything.
Camellia Bowl: Buffalo vs. Georgia Southern (-4, 66.5)
It was a rough finishing stretch for Georgia Southern. After getting one win away from bowl eligibility, the Eagles lost three straight. Part of that had to do with a tough portion of the schedule, where each loss came to a bowl-quality Sun Belt team.
Kyle Vantrease almost threw for 4000 yards, regularly facing teams in arguably the best Group of 5 conference. His best game (389 yards, 3 TD) might have come in a double-overtime win over Appalachian State in the Eagles' last chance to qualify for the postseason.
Buffalo had a similar path, but a 6-6 record in the MAC is considerably less impressive. Unlike Georgia Southern, two of the Bulls' late losses came against the bottom of the conference, and needing a comeback win over Akron isn't inspiring.
Don't get fooled by the MAC's two wins this bowl season; the Bulls' defense is ranked 99th in Football Outsiders' efficiency rating. Meanwhile, the Eagles are nestled between Oregon State and Notre Dame in the top 50 and should score at will.
Pick: Georgia Southern -4
Birmingham Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina (-7, 64.5)
If you're the type to bet totals, the over might be the play in a game where each team's offense is rated much higher than its defense.
The spread has had some wild movement with Grayson McCall's availability. Even though he's transferring, he'll play his last game for Coastal Carolina. In classic college football hypocrisy, McCall will be doing so without his head coach, as Jamey Chadwell has already fled for Liberty. A bigger absence might be Josaiah Stewart - the best player on a bad Chanticleers defense.
East Carolina is similar, except its longtime quarterback and coach combo isn't going anywhere. Holton Ahlers and Mike Houston are looking to notch the Pirates' first bowl game victory in nine years. With offensive continuity on their side, they won't have a problem cutting up the Chanticleers, with a banged-up McCall unable to keep up.
Pick: East Carolina -7
Liberty Bowl: Kansas vs. Arkansas (-3, 68.5)
We've had the same mindset since the game opened with Kansas getting close to a touchdown. Even with the line dropping to a flat field goal, our position remains the same: What is Arkansas playing for here?
The reason this line hasn't fully flipped is that KJ Jefferson is playing but without his top targets - which he could use given the Razorbacks' defense is in shambles. Arkansas' star quarterback is coming back for next season, so it's not like this is his swan song in Fayetteville.
Excitement for this game is much higher in Lawrence. Despite playing quarterback for a team lined at 2.5 wins before the season, Jalon Daniels told his family a year ago that he'd be busy this holiday season preparing for a bowl game. The Jayhawks cap a transformative season with a small upset.
Pick: Kansas +3
Holiday Bowl: North Carolina vs. No. 15 Oregon (-14, 74.5)
With a total this high, the assumption is that both teams should aggressively contribute to the scoring in San Diego. Attempts to poach Drake Maye away from Chapel Hill helped send this spread up over 14 points, only to see a little buy-back days before the Holiday Bowl.
With Maye playing, I have this game projected closer to Oregon -10. So with this game still available at a full two touchdowns, I'll take North Carolina to at least stay in touch with the Ducks. Oregon's already shaky defense has two of its best players - Noah Sewell and Christian Gonzalez - heading for the NFL draft.
Pick: North Carolina +14
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss (-3.5, 70.5)
In its first three losses this season, Texas Tech outgained North Carolina State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State - three teams good enough to be in this week's bowl games. Throw in a fourth-quarter lead at TCU, and the Red Raiders' record could look a lot better. Meanwhile, Ole Miss was found fraudulent when its schedule got harder in the latter half of the season, finishing 1-4.
After a carousel of quarterback starters, the Red Raiders are going with veteran Tyler Shough, an indication they're going all-out to win the Texas Bowl, while Lane Kiffin is looking for just his third-ever bowl victory.
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
