CFB bowl season (Part 2): Festive plays before the holidays

In Part 1 of our college football bowl season best bets, we discussed the unusual circumstances of this time of year and whether you should follow or fade the line moves created by roster uncertainty (opt-outs, transfers, etc.) and theoretical motivational mismatches. While we managed to be profitable at 4-2, something instructive happened Saturday.

Ohio showed it was just fine without Kurtis Rourke. Jacksonville State could have won easier than in overtime but allowed three shocking defensive touchdowns. Appalachian State should have been -4, opened -4.5, and won by four, but the Mountaineers were bet to -6.5, making Miami (OH) the right side in a rain-soaked fumble-fest.

We followed the big move on New Mexico State. Whoops. It turned out that Fresno State was content with going down to Albuquerque and, as the better team, opening a can on the Aggies.

The same could be said for UCLA, but its bettors might have accidentally caught a break when Chase Garbers came in for an injured Collin Schlee and turned a Boise State lead into a Bruin blowout. Strictly following the projections would have made for a clean 6-0 sweep.

On the other hand, you may have noticed we passed on betting on the Famous Toastery Bowl and the sweat of a lifetime on Monday afternoon. We skipped the game because we couldn't bet on it after a drastic line move from where we projected. Western Kentucky had so many opt-outs that it wasn't a viable option. And Old Dominion got bet out to such a heavy favorite that it was impossible to recommend, especially with how Saturday went for teams seeing a similar line move.

Before another big Saturday slate, let's look at a trio of prime-time bowl games on the oddsboard this week.

Marshall vs. UTSA (-12, 51.5)

Analysis was provided before USTA's QB Frank Harris was ruled out.

We start with a tricky one from a market perspective. UTSA -8.5 was too low of an opening line, and bettors saw that and reacted accordingly, betting it up through our projection of -10.5 to Roadrunners -12.

UTSA finished the season with a loss at Tulane, keeping it out of the AAC championship game. However, head coach Jeff Traylor is staying with the program he's built, and star quarterback Frank Harris and a group of seniors are motivated to do the one thing they haven't done during this come up - win a bowl game.

After missing their quarterback for a month due to injury, Harris returned, and the Roadrunners won seven straight games, six by two touchdowns or more. The -10.5 projection assumed that Marshall would be close to full strength, but starting quarterback Cam Fancher left for the transfer portal. Instead, the Thundering Herd will go with Cole Pennington, who played in three contests this season, throwing six interceptions and no touchdowns for an 11.9 QBR.

Pick: UTSA -12

Boca Raton Bowl

South Florida vs. Syracuse (-2.5, 56.5)

Speaking of transfer portal news, Syracuse picked up quarterback Kyle McCord from Ohio State, which is cool for next year but doesn't help their trip to Florida. Incumbent starter Garrett Shrader succumbed to having his season-long shoulder injury addressed with surgery.

The quarterback position was largely a disaster when Shrader missed time this campaign. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson threw four interceptions against Boston College, so the Orange started using tight end Dan Villari as a wildcat-style signal-caller. Given those options, there's a good reason the line has crossed the key number of -3.

Syracuse's offensive challenges likely mean it won't be able to take advantage of South Florida's weak defense. With Cuse having built the bowl qualifications on early season wins - with Shrader - against non-bowl participants Colgate, Western Michigan, Army, and Purdue, the Bulls are excited about the future with dual-threat freshman Byrum Brown to outpace the Orange in their home state.

Pick: South Florida (+2.5)

Gasparilla Bowl

Georgia Tech vs. Central Florida (-4.5, 67.5)

Georgia Tech showed it could upset just about anyone and get upset by just about anyone. Wins over Miami (undefeated at the time) and North Carolina (recently undefeated at the time) might be making the market think the Yellow Jackets are more live here than they should be, even though those teams finished the campaign with nine losses.

Georgia Tech's 122nd-ranked defense by EPA/play and bottom-10 unit by standard down success rate has seen a pair of depth players enter the transfer portal. UCF was a more dangerous squad once John Rhys Plumlee returned to lead it to a bowl bid in the season's second half. Look for the quasi-home team to score at will and cover a short number, a mere two hours from campus.

Pick: Central Florida (-4.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.