Alabama's championship odds longest in 16 years after Saban's departure
When Nick Saban retired last winter as the most iconic and revered figure in Alabama history, so did the Crimson Tide's perennial spot as a preseason favorite.
With Saban's successor Kalen DeBoer, Alabama is still considered a top-10 team and has the fifth-best odds to win the national title. However, at +1500, the Tide have their longest odds of hoisting the trophy since 2008, Saban's second year at the helm.
DeBoer led Washington to the title game last season, and his success in the Pac-12 landed him the Alabama gig. However, the mostly defunct Pac-12 isn't the SEC, and the expectations and scrutiny at Washington don't compare to Alabama.
Saban isn't far from the sport as an Alabama adviser and ESPN analyst. Still, he's not strutting the sidelines with his mean grin and fierce personality that led Alabama to six national championships. That has oddsmakers and pundits skeptical of Alabama's outlook, regardless of the Crimson Tide's talent on their 2024 roster.
Oddsmakers have assigned Alabama its lowest preseason win total - set at 9.5 - since 2015. The Crimson Tide have won at least 10 regular-season games every season since 2010. Saban failed to reach double-digit regular-season wins only twice in his 17-year Alabama run. Implied probability suggests Alabama has a 50% chance of winning 10 games in DeBoer's debut season.
The good news for DeBoer is he successfully convinced key players and a decent portion of Alabama's roster to stay. Significant roster turnover is normal for Alabama - as it is for most teams - with the transfer portal and NFL talent in Tuscaloosa. The portal allowed DeBoer to reload his roster immediately without entering a post-Saban rebuild.
While the staff added from the portal, Alabama will rely on plenty of young players to assume significant roles in 2024. That's a risky proposition in today's game as the average age of starters in college football increases. Though depending primarily on freshmen and sophomores, Alabama won't have a talent shortage with the No. 1 and No. 2 recruiting classes in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
The Tide returned quarterback Jalen Milroe, who had a rocky start to the 2023 season but ultimately led Alabama to the College Football Playoff. He won't play alongside many of the players he did last year, but Alabama's stockpile of talent should seamlessly replace last year's starters.
There's no such thing as an easy schedule in the now-expanded SEC. Alabama begins its season against nonconference opponents Western Kentucky and South Florida before it travels to Wisconsin for a sneakily challenging matchup.
The Crimson Tide's conference schedule features two road games against SEC elites LSU and Tennessee and a home bout against Georgia, the co-favorite to win the national championship. Alabama defeated Georgia in the SEC championship game last season to earn a trip to the playoff, ending the Bulldogs' perfect season and opportunity for a three-peat. The SEC foes haven't played in the regular season since 2020.
Alabama also plays Oklahoma on the road in the Sooners' debut SEC season and faces rival Auburn in the season finale in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are +700 to win the SEC behind Georgia and Texas.
The uncertainty of a new coach, a talented but young roster, and a brutal schedule in an insanely deep and competitive SEC have created questions about Alabama's upcoming season. The unusually long odds and lower win total means Alabama fans may have to temper expectations (perhaps an impossible ask) when the Crimson Tide begin fall camp on Wednesday.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.