Why oddsmakers believe Michigan's due for regression post-Harbaugh

A national champion typically enters the following season as one of the favorites to return to glory. But when a group loses its coach and quarterback, there's less celebrating and more deliberating as the new season approaches. That's where Michigan finds itself after winning its first national championship this century.

Jim Harbaugh had Michigan as a perennial contender and a familiar face atop the oddsboard. However, Harbaugh returned to the NFL as the Chargers coach after finally scaling the mountain at his alma mater.

Although the Wolverines relied on their defense and running game to propel them to a championship, it's critical to note that quarterback J.J. McCarthy left for the NFL.

Michigan is expected to regress significantly after a perfect 15-0 season in 2023. It has the 11th-best odds to win the national championship and the fourth-best odds to win the Big Ten - a conference the Wolverines won the last three years - behind rival Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State. Their regular-season win total is 9.5 with a 69% implied probability of Michigan winning fewer than 10 games.

Sherrone Moore, previously Michigan's offensive coordinator, replaced Harbaugh as head coach. He was 4-0 as interim head coach during Harbaugh's suspension last season, including two wins over top-10 ranked opponents Penn State and Ohio State. Harbaugh is an irreplaceable figure at Michigan as a terrific recruiter and brilliant motivator. However, hiring an in-house Harbaugh disciple in Moore could lead to a more seamless transition in the post-Harbaugh era.

The Wolverines aren't expected to fall into irrelevancy - a place it existed before Harbaugh's 2015 arrival - but it'll be an uphill battle and a monumental upset if they win the expanded Big Ten.

Beyond McCarthy, Michigan lost running back Blake Corum and a host of offensive linemen. Alex Orji is expected to take over under center after serving as McCarthy's backup for the last two seasons. He's an unproven prospect with little collegiate experience, and his play could determine the offense's trajectory. However, the Wolverines will trust their ground game with explosive running back Donovan Edwards returning to the backfield. Moore replenished the defense through the transfer portal, which should be one of the nation's best.

Michigan has one of the country's hardest schedules in the first year of Big Ten expansion. It usually only had to worry about Ohio State and Penn State as two formidable threats when divisions existed and the conference didn't span from coast to coast. But the 2024 Wolverines face three of the top-four national title favorites: Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State. Texas is an SEC foe, but it'll play a Week 2 nonconference matchup in Ann Arbor.

Oregon and Ohio State are the Big Ten favorites. The Wolverines have defeated the Buckeyes the last three years, so Ohio State is coming for vengeance in Columbus. Michigan will be an underdog against Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State. If it fails to upset any of the three, it would sink below its 9.5 win total and likely not qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Michigan fans have been riding high since Harbaugh restored the program's dominance. However, they could be in for a rude awakening in Year 1 of the post-Harbaugh period.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.