Will Oregon, Texas have easy transitions into new conferences?
A conference's style of play is woven into a school's fabric. Flip on a Big Ten showdown and there's a good chance you'll see consecutive punts in a gritty, defensive battle. Switch to a Big 12 matchup and it might seem like a completely different sport as offenses effortlessly drive down the field against lackluster defenses in high-scoring affairs.
With conference realignment in full effect, how will the newcomers fare in their leagues?
Let's start with the Big Ten, which snatched Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA from the mostly-defunct Pac-12.
2024 Big 10 champion odds | 2023 Pac-12 champion odds |
---|---|
Oregon +225 | Oregon +300 |
USC +2200 | USC +190 |
Washington +7500 | Washington +320 |
UCLA +20000 | UCLA +1100 |
Oregon is atop the oddsboard, trailing only Ohio State to win the conference. The Ducks replaced Heisman finalist Bo Nix with Heisman favorite Dillon Gabriel, so their offense shouldn't relapse a year removed from being one of the nation's best.
But Oregon's never played a taxing Big Ten schedule. The Pac-12 was sprinkled with cakewalk opponents, so the West Coast program must adjust to challenging matchups virtually every week. Oddsmakers don't think it'll be an issue - Oregon has a 10.5 win total - but the physicality and demanding schedule could eventually take a toll on the Ducks.
The rest of the Big Ten newcomers aren't expected to perform as well in the now coast-to-coast conference. USC has the fifth-best odds to win, but it's still a long shot. That has as much to do with Caleb Williams' departure as it does with the move. Trojan head coach Lincoln Riley breeds and develops quarterbacks like he's making a cup of coffee, but there's some mystery surrounding presumed starter Miller Moss.
Washington's quarterback went to the NFL and head coach Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama. It's unlikely the Huskies replicate the success they did last year with a challenging schedule in a new conference. Regression is imminent a year after winning the Pac-12 and earning a trip to the national championship.
UCLA finished 4-5 in the Pac-12 last season, prompting Chip Kelly to abandon his role as head coach to become the offensive coordinator at Ohio State. The Bruins are tied for the third-worst odds to win the Big Ten in what will likely turn into a forgetful year for them.
While the Big Ten created a mega conference with 18 teams, the Big 12 and SEC aren't far behind with 16 schools each. Texas and Oklahoma - two powerhouse programs - left the Big 12 for the SEC, which could shift the balance of power in college football's most daunting conference.
2024 SEC champion odds | 2023 Big 12 champion odds |
---|---|
Texas +325 | Texas +100 |
Oklahoma +3500 | Oklahoma +375 |
Texas, the eventual Big 12 champions, and Oklahoma were the favorites to win the Big 12 in 2023. That's no longer the case in a supremely talented conference ripe with NFL talent.
Texas remains atop the oddsboard to win the SEC, trailing only Georgia. The Longhorns have a loaded roster on both sides and return quarterback Quinn Ewers. And they got a sneak peek of SEC football last season when they went to Tuscaloosa and knocked off No. 5 Alabama.
The Longhorns' schedule isn't that challenging despite the move to the SEC. The national title contenders' toughest tests come against Georgia and in a nonconference matchup against Michigan.
Oklahoma's in for a rude awakening. The Sooners' typically prolific offensive attack was usually enough to contend for the Big 12, despite its porous defense. But that's about to change. Jackson Arnold, a highly regarded quarterback without much experience, will take over under center, leaving Oklahoma with the ninth-best odds to win the conference.
Can the Sooners reshape their identity to contend with the physicality that determines SEC success? Time will tell, but they won't be the only program facing an identity crisis and reminiscing on life in an easier conference.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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