3 questions for Ohio State-Penn State blockbuster
New year, same old James Franklin versus top opponents.
Ohio State needs to move on from Ryan Day.
By late afternoon Saturday, one of these two things is going to be said by a large portion of the losing team's fan base following the contest between No. 3 Penn State and the fourth-ranked Buckeyes.
On one side is Franklin - by almost any measure an incredibly successful coach with Penn State who's 27-4 in his last 31 regular-season games. The issue? Those four losses have come to Michigan and Ohio State. In fact, Franklin is 0-6 against Day since the latter took the Buckeyes' job and 1-9 all time in the rivalry.
The other combatant is Day, a man who's compiled an outrageous 62-9 record in his tenure at Ohio State, with all nine losses coming to top-12 competition. That type of production would be welcomed with a parade at virtually any program in the country, but Ohio State is different. The program expects national title contention and to beat Michigan every year. Neither has happened recently, with the Buckeyes losing three straight to the Wolverines and making the playoff just once in the last three years.
So Franklin returns home trying to shed the label that he can't beat the big-time opponent. A win would all but lock up a spot in both the Big Ten title game and College Football Playoff for Penn State. The pressure on Day might be even stronger, as a second loss on the season would effectively end Ohio State's hopes for a Big Ten title. The Buckeyes would still make the playoff if they win out, but the program going four years without a conference title has only happened once in the last 30 years.
Now that the stakes are set, let's look at the three biggest questions for the most important game of the weekend.
Can Penn State finish?
With a combined 97-67 scoreline, Ohio State has handily won the last three meetings against Penn State, right? Insert Lee Corso's trademark "Not so fast, my friend," because a closer look tells a different story. The biggest lead the Buckeyes have taken into the fourth quarter in those three matches is four points. The other two matchups have been within three points entering the final frame, but that's where Ohio State has separated itself.
Day's program has outscored Penn State 44-23 in the fourth quarter of the last three matchups. Take away a garbage-time touchdown with 29 seconds left in last year's contest, and that number looks even worse for Franklin's Nittany Lions. Simply put, Penn State's inability to close games has been arguably the biggest issue in keeping the Nittany Lions winless against Day. The early game plan has clearly been working versus the Buckeyes, but the in-game adjustments just haven't been good enough.
However, there's reason for optimism this year, with new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki bringing his in-game expertise to the table. Penn State outscored USC 27-10 in the second half and overtime to storm back and win earlier this year. And just last week, the Nittany Lions outscored Wisconsin 21-3 in the second half despite being down to backup quarterback Beau Pribula.
If Kotelnicki can bring those results to the field on Saturday, we could see a much different outcome than we're used to in the closing stretches of this rivalry game.
Can Ohio State run the ball?
The best way to get a road win is to run the ball and play good defense. That's especially true in the outrageous environment of Beaver Stadium and its more than 100,000 screaming fans.
The Buckeyes' defense has largely proven up to the task this year, but the run game has taken a midseason vacation. This comes despite Chip Kelly calling plays for standout running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, plus mobile quarterback Will Howard. Outside of Henderson's 53-yard run versus Oregon, the Ohio State rushing attack has run the ball 63 times for a total of just 174 yards in the past two games. That's 2.7 yards per attempt - a number that would rank ahead of only three of 134 FBS teams.
So what's the issue? The loss of starting left tackle Josh Simmons in that Oregon game seems to be the most significant reason for the drop in production. It certainly doesn't help that his replacement, Zen Michalski, was beaten for two sacks last week before leaving with an injury. Down two tackles against a defense led by the dominant Abdul Carter playing at home usually isn't a recipe for success.
Who's playing QB for Penn State?
We saved this biggest question for last: Who's going to play quarterback for the Nittany Lions? It's not a stretch to say a healthy Drew Allar would be the best quarterback on the field Saturday, but his status is up in the air after being sidelined at halftime in the win over Wisconsin. After a couple of shaky drives, Pribula settled down nicely and led the Nittany Lions' offense with a solid mix of running and passing. It appears the decision will be made right before the game, but Allar looked strong in the public portions of Penn State practice this week.
Pribula is a huge threat with his legs, but the Ohio State secondary and pass rush are a different beast than what Wisconsin presented last week. While he could break a few plays on the ground, it's tough to see the backup getting the offense cooking at the same level Allar has done this year. The second-year starter ranks fourth nationally at 10 yards per attempt, slightly ahead of Ohio State's Howard despite the huge drop-off in receiver talent.
Expect Kotelnicki to use Pribula for his running ability whether Allar plays or not. But Penn State will likely need its star to play - and perform well - if Franklin is going to finally get that elusive win against Day and Ohio State.