3 things we learned from release of 1st CFP rankings
The most important voting results in the United States were released on Tuesday and are sure to rile up a number of people in various areas in the country.
We are, of course, talking about the first College Football Playoff rankings for the 2024 season. Tuesday's release marked the inaugural list for this year and was the first in the era of the 12-team playoff.
First, a quick reminder about the new format. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and receive a first-round bye. Those teams will likely be the four champions from the Power 4 conferences, although Boise State could take the Big 12's slot with a string of favorable results down the stretch.
You can argue over the order, but it makes sense to see Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia, and Miami as the top four teams in the initial ranking. Texas coming in at No. 5 is where things get interesting - and controversial.
Here are three things we learned from the committee's rankings.
Committee blinded by big names
Texas, Penn State and Tennessee have two things in common - all three teams have one loss on the season, and all three teams are among the biggest brands in college football.
It seems the committee values the second point much more than the first. If it placed more importance on a team's record, No. 8 Indiana would be ahead of the aforementioned trio.
Texas actually hit the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll earlier this season, but let's address the elephant in the room. What's the Longhorns' best win? At the time of the poll, we thought a road victory at Michigan was a seismic result. However, the Wolverines are now 5-4 on the year. In terms of record, the best Power 4 win on the Longhorns' schedule is a three-point triumph on the road at Vanderbilt. Then there's the loss - a 15-point home defeat to Georgia. The Bulldogs are one of college football's best teams, and Texas couldn't hang with them.
Penn State, who comes in at No. 6, represents the most questionable decision made by the committee. The Nittany Lions are somehow ahead of the Hoosiers despite having one loss and despite both teams playing in the same conference. The best win on Penn State's schedule is a home triumph over Illinois. The combined record of the Power conference competition that the Nittany Lions have defeated is 22-21, with an average scoring margin of plus-14. Meanwhile, Indiana has a record of 25-27 against Power conference competition, with an outrageous average scoring margin of plus-26. Oh, and the Hoosiers haven't lost.
Tennessee, at No. 7, at least has a marquee win on which to hang its hat - something neither Texas or Penn State has. The Volunteers' home victory over Alabama clearly resonated with the committee and was enough to outweigh an ugly road loss to Arkansas. Still, the Volunteers haven't won a conference game this year by more than 10 points. Indiana, meanwhile, has won every single conference game by at least two touchdowns.
It seems the committee needs Indiana to play Michigan and Ohio State - two of the most storied programs in the country - before giving it a fair shake as a top-four team.
Northern Illinois loss really didn't hurt Notre Dame
No program should be happier with the move to a 12-team playoff than Notre Dame. A stunning home loss to Northern Illinois, who celebrated its first top-10 win ever - would have essentially eliminated the Fighting Irish from the playoff in a four-team system. Instead, the defeat against the ninth-place team in the MAC was a minor blip. Marcus Freeman's Irish are firmly in a playoff spot at No. 10 with four weeks to play.
Notre Dame's win over Louisville is aging like fine wine after the Cardinals went into Clemson and dominated the Tigers. However, the season-opening victory at Texas A&M lost plenty of shine after the Aggies got smoked last week at South Carolina. Home games against a dreadful Florida State and Virginia are next on the slate, with a neutral-site battle against unbeaten Army looming in the penultimate week of the season. The finale at USC looked like a blockbuster at the start of the year, but the Trojans are imploding and already have five Big Ten losses.
The loss to Northern Illinois may end up costing Notre Dame a home playoff game, but the committee showed us Tuesday that it's comfortable with the rest of the Irish's resume.
Big 12, ACC look like 1-team leagues
As expected, the top 12 was dominated by the Big Ten and the SEC. Expand it to the top 16, and there are only five teams that aren't from those two conferences.
Let's live dangerously and assume No. 4 Miami wins out and heads to the ACC title game. While the Hurricanes' history of blowing winnable games in shocking fashion comes to mind, this year's explosive offense looks like it will be able to handle the rest of the regular season. That likely means a date with SMU in the title game - a contest the Mustangs will probably have to win to nab a second bid for the ACC. The committee clearly wasn't moved by SMU's 7-1 record and a lone loss to undefeated BYU, ranking it outside the top 12, even though the Mustangs' resume features wins over top-25 opponents Pitt and Louisville.
Miami, listed at the No. 4 slot, will essentially provide SMU with a parachute into the playoff if it finishes undefeated but then loses in the ACC title game.
Speaking of BYU, the Cougars found themselves ranked ninth, trailing five teams who already have a loss on the season. That essentially tells us that the winner of the Big 12 will be the only member of that conference to make the playoff. No. 17 Iowa State, No. 19 Kansas State, and No. 20 Colorado are also in the rankings and very much in play for the conference title game, but they won't make the field without a win.