CFP predictions: SMU over Bama, Texas falls to No. 7
The games are finished, the data points have been counted, and all that's left is Sunday's official unveiling of the first 12-team College Football Playoff field.
The committee made things fairly clear with their rankings and explanations Tuesday, so seeding was mostly what was at stake on the field Saturday.
There are 12 hours before the picks are announced on ESPN, but we don't have to wait to drop our predictions on how the playoff will break down.
First-round byes
Top 4: No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State, No. 4 Arizona St.
Oregon capped an unbeaten first season in the Big Ten with an impressive win over Penn State in the title game. That keeps the Ducks as the clear No. 1 heading into the playoffs. Georgia's second win over Texas this season sees the former leap to No. 2 and grab the second bye - a significant development that gives Carson Beck an extra week to get healthy. Things get interesting at No. 3, where it's a choice between Boise State, Arizona State, and Clemson for the two final first-round byes. The guess is that the committee keeps the same order it had prior to Saturday's games and gives the nod to the Broncos and Sun Devils at Nos. 3 and 4.
First-round matchups
Game 1: No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Penn State
Game 2: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Notre Dame
Game 3: No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Texas
Game 4: No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
A playoff spot looked unlikely when Clemson walked off the field after last weekend's home loss to South Carolina. However, a shocking road loss by Miami saw the Tigers back their way into the ACC title game versus SMU, and they took full advantage of that second chance with a dramatic win over the Mustangs to snag an automatic spot. Their reward is a first-round matchup against a Penn State team that gave Oregon a solid fight in the Big Ten title game. The atmosphere at a sold-out Beaver Stadium could be the best in the opening round of the playoff.
The 6-11 matchup features SMU traveling to South Bend to face Notre Dame. The Mustangs' ferocious comeback in the ACC title game may have fallen just short, but it was enough to convince the committee they deserved a spot over Alabama. There's no hotter team in the country than their opponent, as the Fighting Irish have overcome a Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois with a 10-game winning streak.
The 7-10 contest features the school with the fourth-most wins in college football history and the team with the most losses ever. Texas is no stranger to the playoff, but Indiana on the other side of the field is a shocker. Both teams enter with questions surrounding their resumes - the Longhorns and Hooisers have a combined 0-3 record against top-25 opposition this season.
All four first-round matchups have the potential to be bangers, but the 8-9 game between Tennessee and Ohio State is our pick of the bunch. Both teams sport top-five defensive units in the country with offensive talent that has somehow underwhelmed at times. If you think the heat on Ryan Day is serious now, watch what happens if the Buckeyes lose a home playoff game.