CFP picks: Predictions for how the bracket unfolds

Picking a bracket in a four-team College Football Playoff was a very quick exercise, but the advent of the 12-team field has lent itself to a much more intriguing process for the postseason.

The importance of seeding will be on display immediately with a legitimate argument to be made that No. 6 Penn State has an easier path to the title game than No. 1 Oregon.

That factored immensely into our bracket picks with a highly entertaining title game awaiting at the end of the line.

First round

No. 5 Texas over No. 12 Clemson

Clemson actually has something on its resume that Texas doesn't heading into Saturday - a win over a team currently ranked in the top 25. However, the Tigers have faced SEC competition twice this year and lost both times by a 51-17 margin. It's tough to see that changing unless the Longhorns gift the visitors a number of turnovers.

No. 6 Penn State over No. 11 SMU

SMU is the 11-seed but found itself ranked No. 10 in the final CFP rankings. That means you are going to hear the stat that James Franklin is 3-19 against top-10 teams in his time at Penn State repeatedly on Saturday. There's never been a better time - or situation - for Franklin to get win No. 4 with the Nittany Lions sitting as 8.5-point favorites. Drew Allar feasts on the SMU defense after Cade Klubnik threw for 262 yards and four touchdowns in the ACC title game.

No. 7 Notre Dame over No. 10 Indiana

Indiana is the Cinderella team in the opening round and is rewarded with an in-state matchup against Notre Dame. The Hoosiers looked to be a tier below Ohio State in the penultimate week of the season and will face a similar talent discrepancy against the Irish. Expect Curt Cignetti to make some adjustments and keep things interesting for much longer than Notre Dame wants in this one. However, the Irish's depth eventually pays off in the home win.

No. 9 Tennessee over No. 8 Ohio State

Any good tournament sees some early upsets, and this one comes in the final game of the opening round in Columbus. The horrific vibes around the Ohio State program remain as Tennessee uses the Michigan blueprint to run the ball, play great defense, and hand the Buckeyes a second consecutive loss.

Quarterfinals

No. 7 Notre Dame over No. 2 Georgia

The last update on Carson Beck had the senior quarterback seeking a second opinion on his arm injury. That usually doesn't happen just to confirm good news, so it's likely Gunner Stockton will be the Georgia quarterback versus Notre Dame. An untested passer against the Irish is not a fair fight as the defense tops the nation with five pick-6s on the season. It seems crazy that a team with a home loss to Northern Illinois would be in the CFP semis, but that's how the world will look as we ring in 2025.

No. 1 Oregon over No. 9 Tennessee

Oregon's multitude of weapons eventually breaks down the Tennessee defense, and the Vols can't keep up with the nation's only undefeated team. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel shines in his 64th collegiate game with the man who coached him in his first - Josh Heupel - on the other sideline.

No. 5 Texas over No. 4 Arizona State

Texas is a team with a couple of flaws but the borderline impenetrable defense isn't one of them. The Longhorns slow down Cam Skattebo and Arizona State can't come up with a Plan B on offense. Steve Sarkisian's outfit returns to the CFP semis for the second straight year with another victory.

No. 6 Penn State over No. 3 Boise State

Boise State's Ashton Jeanty needs just 131 yards to break Barry Sanders' all-time single-season rushing record. The Nittany Lions allowed just one 100-yard rusher this season with Woody Marks hitting 111 for USC. Something has to give in this one with a CFP semifinal spot on the line. Our money is on the defense standing tall once again and forcing someone other than Jeanty to win it for the Broncos. Spoiler alert: They won't.

Semifinals

No. 1 Oregon over No. 5 Texas

After a comfortable two-game stretch versus Clemson and Arizona State, Texas gets shocked back to life by the mighty Ducks. The Longhorns' defense has thrived all season but has yet to face an offense with Oregon's weapons. Gabriel spreads it around to hand Texas a semifinal loss for the second season in a row.

No. 6 Penn State over No. 7 Notre Dame

Many will paint this as a matchup of a coach who struggles against top opponents versus one with some shocking losses as a heavy favorite. It's probably more important that Penn State's top-20 run game gets a favorable matchup in Notre Dame's 51st-ranked rush defense. That mismatch keeps the chains moving and puts the Nittany Lions in the championship game.

National title game

No. 6 Penn State over No. 1 Oregon

If the rematch is anything like the Big Ten title game, we are in for a banger of a national championship tilt. Oregon took the first battle largely thanks to Tez Johnson's incredible 11-catch performance for 181 yards. Penn State may have lost, but the Nittany Lions exposed a weakness by gashing the Ducks for an eye-popping 8.3 yards per rush. The rushing attack putting up those numbers again seems more sustainable than Johnson having another career-best game. Freed from the gauntlet of the former Big Ten East, Penn State wins its first national title since 1986.