1 key for each team in CFP's opening round
The bracket chatter is over, the field is set, and, finally, the initial 12-team College Football Playoff has arrived.
Each of the better seeds is hosting this weekend and, while every home team is favored, this season's proven that anybody - except maybe Oregon - is capable of an upset.
Here's one key for each team in action in the first round.
Texas: Run the dang ball
One can choose their own adventure when trying to dissect Texas' first season in the SEC. The good is a 10-2 record, a berth in the conference title game, and the No. 5 seed in the CFP. The bad comes when you look for the best win over a currently-ranked opponent on the schedule - there isn't one.
Texas' pair of losses to Georgia also represent the only two matchups with a ranked team on the schedule. One of the common denominators in the defeats is quarterback Quinn Ewers' struggles. The Bulldogs held Ewers to just 6.39 yards per attempt through the air over two games, intercepting him three times. Ewers averaged 8 yards per pass in the other nine games on the schedule.
The game plan against Clemson is simple: Feed Quintrevion Wisner, Jaydon Blue, and whoever else wants carries, keep Ewers' workload to a minimum, and punch a ticket to the quarterfinals.
Penn State: Outside weapon steps up
The best run defense on the Beaver Stadium field on Saturday won't belong to the home team. The Nittany Lions boast a very solid defense that receives plenty of attention, but SMU ranks third nationally in stopping the run. If the Mustangs slow the dynamic duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, can the receivers move the offense?
Yes, the nation's top tight end, Tyler Warren, plays for Penn State and is the focal point of the passing attack. But a bulk of the game plan will certainly be based on limiting Warren's impact and forcing signal-caller Drew Allar to look elsewhere.
Penn State hasn't had a receiver gain more than 60 yards since Nov. 9th, and Warren has led the team in the last four outings. Harrison Wallace III or Omari Evans will likely need to contribute in a big way if the team is going to make a CFP run.
Notre Dame: Keep Indiana down early
Notre Dame needs to fly out of the gates on Friday in the CFP opener against Indiana, and it's vital the stadium is rocking from the jump. The Hoosiers have made a living dominating teams in the opening frame: They rank first nationally among Power Conference teams in first-quarter defense and 13th in offense. Even in Indiana's toughest tests of the season, against both Michigan and Ohio State, the team scored opening-quarter touchdowns.
If Notre Dame can avoid the early score, the Irish can look to contests against the Wolverines and Buckeyes for inspiration. The Hoosiers dominated every other opponent with a whopping 3.97 points per possession, but Ohio State and Michigan held them to just 1.52. Things will be significantly less stressful for coach Marcus Freeman if the Irish can come out flying.
Ohio State: Get that swagger back
The last time we saw Ohio State take the field, the Buckeyes:
- Lost at home to Michigan as 23-point favorites, failing to score in the second half or get a first down in the 4th quarter
- Fought after the game when the Wolverines planted a flag on the field
- Saw an Ohio state representative propose a bill to make it a felony for opposition to plant a flag in the middle of Ohio Stadium
It's been a long couple of weeks for Ohio State and Ryan Day - and that'll turn into a torturous offseason if they can't beat Tennessee on Saturday at home. Day, Chip Kelly and the offense seemed more determined to establish the Buckeyes as the more physically dominant team versus Michigan instead of exploiting the clear mismatch in the passing game. If they try that again versus the Volunteers' fourth-ranked rush defense, it's going to be a long night in front of 100,000 angry fans.
Ohio State is blessed with a wide receiver group that features Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss. Despite that core, Day and Kelly opted to repeatedly run between the tackles on Michigan's dominant defensive interior in the loss. The Buckeyes need to look themselves in the mirror, release the embarrassment of riches they have at wide receiver, and put the pedal to the metal against the Vols.
Tennessee: Muck it up at Ohio State
Plenty of jokes were made about a southern team traveling north to play in freezing temperatures, but Tennessee's makeup is essentially perfect for cold-weather football. The Volunteers feature one of the sport's top running backs, Dylan Sampson, and an outstanding defense that ranks fourth in the nation. Head coach Josh Heupel doesn't need to look far to see how that tracks at Ohio Stadium - that's essentially the blueprint Michigan followed in its stunning upset to end the campaign.
The Volunteers need to make this a rock fight of sorts - the outside weapons on offense don't stack up with the fleet of thoroughbreds the Buckeyes trot out. Nico Iamaleava has shown flashes at times, but the young quarterback will be in tough against the nation's eighth-best defense in terms of pressure.
Indiana: Make Notre Dame play its best
The Hoosiers cannot gift the Irish points as they did at Ohio State earlier this season.
Indiana hung around pretty well against the Buckeyes in the Week 13 matchup. Then a blocked punt led to an easy score, and a 79-yard punt return resulted in an Ohio State touchdown, flipping a close game into a blowout.
The talent gap between the two teams leans heavily toward Notre Dame and, if both play their best, the Irish will emerge victorious. However, if the Hoosiers can capitalize on any and all mistakes from Freeman's outfit, an upset could be in the cards.
SMU: Hit on explosive plays
SMU probably isn't built to go blow-for-blow with Penn State and sustain long drives in the cold of Beaver Stadium and its 100,000 screaming fans. It'll likely take the Mustangs some explosive plays to pull off a shocking upset - something they are built for, thanks to electric quarterback Kevin Jennings.
SMU ranks seventh in the nation in plays over 20 yards and 10th in plays over 30. Jenning's dual-threat capabilities should keep the Nittany Lions' defense guessing - he can choose to be either a runner or a passer each play. While Penn State's defense is undoubtedly one of the top units in the country, it is prone to a letdown or two, ranking outside the top 50 nationally in explosive plays allowed.
Clemson: Force turnovers
It's going to be incredibly difficult for Clemson to put up many points against the incredible Texas defense, arguably the best unit of all the playoff teams. It also isn't overly encouraging that the Tigers' offense scored just 17 combined points in two games against SEC competition this year. That's going to put the onus on the defense to flip the game with a coach's best friend: turnovers.
The Tigers rank inside the top 15 nationally in both fumbles forced and interceptions on the campaign. The Longhorns' offense isn't shy about turning the ball over, either - only seven teams have lost more fumbles than Texas this season, and Quinn Ewers has carded nine interceptions. Clemson needs to force turnovers and take advantage of short fields to put points on the board in Austin on Saturday.
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