Orange Bowl preview: Penn State vs. Notre Dame

Two coaches with excellent resumes that lack significant standout wins meet in the Orange Bowl with James Franklin's Penn State against Marcus Freeman's Notre Dame.

Franklin and the Nittany Lions took care of business as heavy favorites against SMU and Boise State to reach the College Football Playoff semifinal. Notre Dame comfortably overwhelmed Indiana before dusting off backup quarterback Gunner Stockton and Georgia last week.

However, the path traveled won't matter to whoever gets the win Thursday in Miami, and their reputation will be changed forever with the victory.

Here's how the Orange Bowl breaks down.

Penn State

When they have the ball

Many teams have complicated playbooks featuring intricate systems that must be drilled to perfection. All Penn State's offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has to do is walk into the locker room and write, "Run the ball, throw it to Tyler Warren," on the wipe-off board before leaving.

Drew Allar is a projected first-round NFL draft pick whenever he decides to make that move, but the best thing the star quarterback is doing right now is turning around and handing the ball to Nicholas Singleton or Kaytron Allen. That dynamic rushing duo has been running wild in the playoffs with an outrageous 7 yards per carry for Penn State. Allar has also flashed plenty of ability using his legs, giving the defense something to think about on read-option plays.

When the defense stacks the box to stop the run, Allar picks them apart with his favorite target in Warren. The nation's top tight end flexed his talent with six catches for 66 yards and two massive touchdowns against Boise State in the quarterfinals. The Nittany Lions' other top pass-catching options include Harrison Wallace and Omari Evans, but this is essentially a run-first, find-Warren-second offensive attack.

When they don't

There seems to be one goal for Penn State when the offense doesn't have the ball: get it back immediately. The Nittany Lions have been turnover-forcing machines in the playoff, recording three interceptions against both SMU and Boise State. Pass-rushing maestro Abdul Carter absolutely pops off the screen, constantly causing havoc for the opposition. He missed the second half of the quarterfinal win, but his recent social media activity suggests he'll play Thursday.

While the opportunistic secondary and Carter get the headlines, the Nittany Lions really are a stout defense at every level that thrives on putting teams in long passing downs. Penn State ranks 17th nationally in rushing defense, an important statistic considering Notre Dame's run-heavy attack.

Why they will win

Notre Dame's closest games this season have come when the opposition slows the running attack. Riley Leonard is an exceptional runner at the quarterback position, but he's had issues in clear passing situations. If you take away Jeremiyah Love's 98-yard touchdown run against Indiana, the Irish have rushed for just 3.5 yards per carry in the playoffs. If they can hold them to that number, the Nittany Lions will force Leonard to beat them through the air. That bodes well for Penn State.

Why they won't

Have you seen Franklin's record against top opposition? The longtime Penn State coach is 1-14 versus top-five teams in his time with the program - essentially the only bone of contention the fan base has with him. Franklin's offensive units tend to shrink in the big moments, with production grinding to a halt and the defense forced to stand up.

One sign that should bring hope on that front is the offensive explosion in the Big Ten title game loss to Oregon. That showed the potential for the offense to thrive against a top team that we hadn't seen often in recent years. However, the Ducks were just shredded by Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, so perhaps that defensive unit wasn't as dominant as we thought. The stout Notre Dame defense stands tall, the offense goes back into its shell, and Franklin again can't get the team to rise to the occasion in a big game.

Notre Dame

When they have the ball

Only three teams in the country ripped off more running plays of at least 30 yards this season. While the approach is a physical style, the Notre Dame offense actually lives off explosive plays. Love has game-breaking speed every time he touches the ball - just ask Indiana - and Leonard is elite at avoiding pressure and finding space to run.

Love's health is a question heading into Thursday's game, but all signs point to him playing against the Nittany Lions. Whether he's 100% or the Irish need a healthy dose of Jadarian Price, you can be sure that Penn State will stack the box like it did against Ashton Jeanty and Boise State. That'll put the onus on Leonard to be effective through the air when called upon.

There's no superstar receiver on the Irish, but the wideout group is probably rated higher than Penn State's. Jordan Faison is the chain-moving possession receiver, while Clemson transfer Beaux Collins is an excellent red-zone threat for Leonard.

When they don't

The video sessions in the buildup to the game for both teams will certainly feel like looking in the mirror. We already talked about Penn State's ability on defense to get in the backfield and force turnovers, and that's exactly where Notre Dame thrives as well.

The Irish lead the nation with 31 takeaways this season, a total featuring a healthy split of 18 interceptions and 13 fumbles. Notre Dame isn't just content with a turnover either, as the team immediately has eyes for the end zone once it gains control. Freeman's defense has scored an incredible five pick-6s on the campaign, including three over 75 yards.

There's plenty of talent across the board for Notre Dame, but Xavier Watts is the most dangerous man in the back end for the Irish. Watts has six interceptions this season after leading the nation with seven in 2023.

Why they will win

Knowing how to stop Penn State and being able to do it are two very different things. However, there's no defense in the country better equipped to slow the running game and cover Warren than the Irish. If Notre Dame can plug up the running holes and make Allar look for his wideouts, that could lead to plenty of opportunities for the defense to grab a turnover or two.

Penn State will likely implement the same defense on Notre Dame as it did on Boise State - stack the box and force the quarterback to win through the air. Leonard isn't the best passer, but he's certainly more accomplished than the Broncos' Maddux Madsen. If Leonard rises to the occasion with a strong showing early, the defense will be forced to adjust, and the running lanes will open for the Irish.

Why they won't

Penn State's defense limits the running game, forcing Leonard to be a passer and deal with the Nittany Lions' ferocious pass rush. That gives the defensive backs license to gamble, and Leonard throws an interception for the fourth time in his last five starts against Power conference competition.

Allar shows why he's the apple of many NFL scouts' eye with a standout performance - significantly better than what Notre Dame has seen in the playoffs from Kurtis Rourke on a torn ACL and Stockton making his first career start. The Irish defense can only bend so much before breaking without turnovers to stop drives.