Luck on his side? Experts tab Irish War Cry to win Kentucky Derby
Saturday's running of the 143rd Kentucky Derby looks to be one of the most wide-open fields in a long time, with no one colt standing out above the rest.
Post positions and morning-line odds were announced Wednesday and the current favourite, Classic Empire, is listed at a juicy 4-1. Favorites have won the last four Derbys (Nyquist 2016, American Pharoah 2015, California Chrome 2014, and Orb 2013), and have triumphed 55 times in the race's history, but there was a favorite drought from 1980 to 1999.
In 2009, Mine that Bird strode to victory as the second-longest shot (50-1) ever to win the race. A $2 ticket returned $103.20.
Many factors come into play when handicapping the Derby. The 1 1/4-mile distance is the farthest any of these horses have run in their careers, so the question is which horses have the stamina. The forecast calls for rain, and that means a muddy track. Only a handful of the horses have raced in the slop, Classic Empire being one of them.
Post position is key. The one hole is considered the most dreaded because the horse is often squeezed between the rail to its left and the 19 other horses to its right. On the flip side, the horse starting from the 20 post may have to go the long route to the finish line.
theScore has asked five racing experts to weigh in on the field:
Marcus Hersh, Daily Racing Form
Pick to win: Irish War Cry (6-1)
"I came to Louisville leaning towards picking Irish War Cry to win the Kentucky Derby, and after seeing the horse in person starting Monday, my position hardened. His Fountain of Youth no-show lingers as a concern, but the colt has learned to rate off the pace, is in line for a clean outside stalking trip, and should stay the distance."
Longshot: Hence (15-1)
"A long(er) shot to consider. The Sunland Derby, which he won comfortably, already has yielded three horses that subsequently ran strong races. Hence has Churchill experience and, other than being a little keyed up, has appeared to train strongly for the Derby."
Ed DeRosa, twinspires.com
Pick to win: Classic Empire (4-1)
"In a so-called 'wide-open year' I'm going with the horse who has flashed the most talent in a singular performance, and a repeat of Classic Empire's Breeders' Cup Juvenile wins this race."
Longshot: Hence
Jeremy Balan, Bloodhorse
Pick to win: Irish War Cry
"As long as he gets a good post, he gets the tactical trip that wins the modern Derby (see Nyquist, Chrome, Pharoah). Draw a line through the Fountain of Youth and he has the look of a favorite."
Longshot: Battle of Midway (30-1)
"Did all the work on the front end in a three-way speed competition in the Santa Anita Derby. The overall quality of the Santa Anita Derby is a concern, but he shouldn't be on the lead Saturday. Flavien Prat is the best jockey on the West Coast to get a horse to relax early and pounce."
Richard Mauntah, Toronto Sun
Pick to win: Classic Empire
"Classic Empire may be the most talented horse in the field and can greatly improve off his win in the Arkansas Derby."
Longshot: Thunder Snow (20-1)
"Many have said Thunder Snow is the best horse Godolphin has sent and winning the Derby is long overdue for them.”
Christina Blacker, TVG
Pick to win: Irish War Cry
"I don't know what happened in the Fountain of Youth with him and neither does his trainer. I'm going to draw a line through that race and simply take his form off his other performances. As a son of Curlin, the distance and surface (if we get weather) will not be a problem. I think he gets a tactical trip free of traffic from the outside draw and visually looks like he gets stronger with each and every start."
Longshot: Practical Joke (20-1)
"The outside post hurts him but he has one of the best Thorograph patterns and numbers in the field. He has the speed to place himself near the pace and has overcome adversity before. His foundation at 2 years old was strong and he appears to be building off that this year."