James van Riemsdyk is set for quite the raise in free agency
James van Riemsdyk's 2017-18 season was always going to be under the microscope.
Entering the final year of an incredibly team-friendly deal that carries a $4.25-million cap hit, the Toronto Maple Leafs faced a tough decision. They could've used him as an offseason trade chip while he still had term, presumably to fetch reinforcements for a blue line everybody knew needed some work.
They opted to hold off, then did so again at the trade deadline, keeping the 28-year-old winger in-house for their playoff push, while taking the risk he could walk away in the offseason for nothing.
For the moment, at least, it's a gamble that's provided quality returns.
Van Riemsdyk is fresh off back-to-back three-point games - including five goals in less than four periods - to propel the Leafs to two wins while passing the sidelined Auston Matthews for the team lead in goals with 31, a new career-high despite averaging just 14:48 of ice-time (10th among Leafs forwards).
His value to the Leafs has never been more apparent than it is right now, and while there's surely more to squeeze out of Van Riemsdyk down the stretch and into the postseason, he's likely played himself out of the slim possibility of re-signing with the club in July.
Van Riemsdyk is one of three Maple Leafs forwards bound for unrestricted free agency, joining longtime linemate Tyler Bozak as well as Leo Komarov. There's no question JVR is the most difficult of the trio to replace, yet as is general manager Lou Lamoriello's wont, no indications of any contract talks between the two parties have seeped through the impenetrable walls of Toronto's front office.
Even if some sort of information were to leak to the public, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where the Leafs and Van Riemsdyk reach an agreement.
Plain and simple, Van Riemsdyk is going to be one of the hottest commodities in this summer's free-agent class. Behind John Tavares, who's scored the same number of goals and might not end up hitting the market at all, JVR is the top player available.
Since arriving in Toronto via a one-for-one deal in exchange for Luke Schenn (we'll call that trade a win for the Leafs), Van Riemsdyk has been one of the league's premier goal scorers. His 149 tallies - 43 on the power play - in Leafs colors since 2013 ranks 18th in the NHL. Narrowed down to left wingers, JVR sits third among his peers, tied with Jeff Skinner and James Neal, while trailing Max Pacioretty, Brad Marchand, and Jamie Benn (173 each), and the incomparable Alex Ovechkin (261).
The Maple Leafs have one more season before Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner are all off their entry-level contracts, and the negotiations of those three will be the ultimate priority for Toronto management. Unless Van Riemsdyk takes significantly less term and salary, the Leafs won't be able to match offers from around the league, and will likely end up filling his void with internal options.
Glancing at some recent deals, it's easy to infer Van Riemsdyk is bound for a considerable raise. Here's a look at a few examples of contracts signed by free agent wingers over the past two offseasons, which could serve as the basis of JVR's asking price.
Player (Team) | Years | AAV | Career P/GP |
---|---|---|---|
T.J. Oshie (WSH) | 8 | $5.75M | 0.69 |
Kyle Okposo (BUF) | 7 | $6M | 0.68 |
Patrick Marleau (TOR) | 3 | $6.25M | 0.71 |
Based on those deals alone, and the quality of the players in comparison to Van Riemsdyk (0.64 points per game), it's fair to assume he'll have his fair share of suitors willing to commit at least $6 million - $7 million per season, with notable term included.
Should he put pen to paper on a deal similar to those above, he'll also be in the same ballpark as the NHL's best wingers. Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Taylor Hall, Filip Forsberg, Johnny Gaudreau, and Artemi Panarin all fall within that range.
Van Riemsdyk may not bring as much to the table as those players in terms of all-around play, but he's established himself as one of the NHL's most consistent goal scorers.
Now he's about to get paid like one.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)