How 2 deals designed to extend Blackhawks' window may have closed it
Chicago Blackhawks general manager Stan Bowman got a little ahead of himself this offseason, and it's a major reason why his team has lost seven straight games - including an embarrassing 6-1 loss Monday to the last-place Arizona Coyotes - and is now 10 points out of a playoff spot.
Following back-to-back first-round playoff exits, Bowman pulled off two stunning blockbuster trades on June 23, 2017:
Blackhawks receive | Coyotes receive |
---|---|
D Connor Murphy | D Niklas Hjalmarsson |
C Laurent Dauphin |
Dauphin has since been traded back to Arizona, while Hjalmarsson, 30, has a $4.1-million cap hit through next season and Murphy, 24, is signed through 2021-22 with a $3.85-million cap hit.
The trade that broke shortly after the Hjalmarsson deal was even more shocking:
Blackhawks receive | Blue Jackets receive |
---|---|
LW Brandon Saad | LW Artemi Panarin |
G Anton Forsberg | LW Tyler Motte |
2018 5th-round pick | 2017 6th-round pick |
Forsberg is a backup goalie, Motte is a depth piece, and the draft picks are so late that it's essentially a one-for-one deal.
However, Saad is just one year younger than Panarin, and they both have $6-million cap hits. The difference? Panarin is a free agent after next season, while Saad is signed through 2020-21.
It's clear that in both trades, Bowman was willing to trade a key member of his team for someone who is, frankly, considerably worse, in the hopes of prolonging his team's winning window.
Here's how Panarin and Saad stacked up in the two seasons prior to the trade:
Panarin | Stat | Saad |
---|---|---|
162 | GP | 160 |
61 | G | 55 |
90 | A | 51 |
151 | P | 106 |
86 | Takeaways | 76 |
54.0 | CF% | 52.6 |
This season, the comparison has been just as one-sided, even though Columbus has the league's fourth-worst offense, and Panarin is the one player opponents have to game plan around:
Panarin | Stat | Saad |
---|---|---|
57 | GP | 57 |
15 | G | 13 |
31 | A | 11 |
46 | P | 24 |
55 | Takeaways | 35 |
57.9 | CF% | 58.7 |
Panarin is also on pace to shatter his career high in takeaways, indicating that he's improved defensively in his third season. Had he remained in Chicago - and on a line with Patrick Kane, with whom he developed great chemistry - his numbers would probably be drastically improved, as would Kane's.
As for the Hjalmarsson vs. Murphy comparison, it can be broken down in a much simpler fashion. Head coach Joel Quenneville would rely on Hjalmarsson for anywhere from 21-23 minutes a night, and the Swede would do so in steady, reliable, shutdown fashion.
Murphy, however, has failed to gain Quenneville's trust, as he's averaging 15:50 per night. Having a player make nearly $4 million per season playing sixth defenseman minutes isn't conducive to success when you have two players (Kane and Jonathan Toews) making a combined $21 million per year.
Murphy's lack of reliability has forced Quenneville to give more minutes to young, inexperienced defenseman, such as Jordan Oesterle, Jan Rutta, and Gustav Forsling. Furthermore, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook still have to log huge minutes even though they're getting up there in age. Hjalmarsson would've been able to shoulder some of those tough minutes.
Down years from the Blackhawks' core - Toews, Kane, Keith, and Seabrook - have played a large part in the team's poor season. So, too, has the fact that goaltender Corey Crawford has played only 28 out of a possible 57 games this season due to injury. The absence of veteran Marian Hossa can't be overlooked as well.
If Panarin and Hjalmarsson are back in the fold, are the Blackhawks suddenly a Presidents' Trophy-caliber team? Most likely no, but they definitely could've been a playoff team. Even though hockey is a team game, both Panarin and Hjalmarsson are impactful enough that their presence would create a positive rippling effect throughout the lineup, making everyone around them better.
What Bowman should've done was held onto Panarin and Hjalmarsson, give Toews, Kane, Keith, and Seabrook the best possible supporting cast, and take one more kick at the can before the core became untenable.
The Blackhawks' undoing was inevitable, but Bowman just simply sped up the process.
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