Which AFC teams will beat Vegas' win-total projections?

Now that sports betting will be legalized in several U.S. states, it's a good time to look at the team win-total projections coming out of Las Vegas.

Using the totals set by Westgate Las Vegas Resort and Casino, let's break down the projections for all NFC teams and forecast which are most likely to exceed or fall short of expectations.

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Baltimore Ravens (Total: 8)

Only three times in the 10-year John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era have the Ravens failed to exceed eight wins. One of those seasons, a 5-11 mark in 2015, was hampered by Flacco's ACL injury. After a slow start in 2017, Baltimore won five of its last seven but lost to the Bengals in the season finale to miss the playoffs at 9-7. Flacco rebounded from a rocky first half and some back problems to catch fire down the stretch, as the Ravens averaged 31.8 points per game over their last five games. With Lamar Jackson hot on his heels, look for Flacco to be motivated this season.

Projection: Over

Buffalo Bills (Total: 6 1/2)

The Bills have some elements to withstand the natural learning curve that'll come with starting rookie quarterback Josh Allen - a powerful running game led by LeSean McCoy, some playmakers in Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones and decent enough talent on defense. It seems unlikely they'll win nine games again and return to the playoffs behind a rookie quarterback, but they're talented enough to win at least seven.

Projection: Over

Cincinnati Bengals (Total: 7)

So much needs to go right for the Bengals to eclipse this mark. Andy Dalton must return to 2015 form, Marv Lewis has to get his defense back to top-10 level, and second-year wideout John Ross - last year's ninth overall pick - needs to catch his first professional pass. Even with that, the AFC North should be ultra-competitive, especially with the Browns on the rise. This team needs too many things to go right to reach this number.

Projection: Under

Cleveland Browns (Total: 5 1/2)

You heard it here first: The Browns are legit - or at least, legit enough to win at least six games. Baker Mayfield will be Offensive Rookie of the Year and have his transition eased by the presence of Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry, Carlos Hyde, and a strong offensive line. The defense has some good, young talent. Postseason? Not likely. At least six wins? Put it in the books.

Projection: Over

Denver Broncos (Total: 7)

The Broncos, a top-five defense for the past four years, opted against drafting a quarterback with the fifth overall pick. Count me among those skeptical of Case Keenum replicating the magic of his 2017 season with an entirely new coaching staff and in new surroundings. The Broncos lack playmakers around him. Perhaps they chose Bradley Chubb fifth overall with the expectation of picking their QB in 2018, after another rough season.

Projection: Under

Houston Texans (Total: 8 1/2)

The Texans are one of the toughest teams to handicap. If J.J. Watt and DeShaun Watson return healthy and to pre-injury form, the Texans could blow this number to pieces. If not, they might not be much better than last year's four-win team. The Texans have a good core - Jadeveon Clowney, DeAndre Hopkins, and Whitney Mercilus - and the Tyrann Mathieu signing could be one of the most impactful of free agency. Right now, they look more like a 9- or 10-win team than not.

Projection: Over

Indianapolis Colts (Total: 6 1/2)

Even if Andrew Luck is healthy enough return by the season opener, which isn't certain at the moment, that doesn't guarantee a good season. The Colts were 8-8 with Luck pulling the trigger in 2015 and 2016, and the roster doesn't appear significantly better in 2018. Quenton Nelson, the sixth overall pick, should improve the O-line, but the defense lacks pass-rushers and depth. Could be another long season for the horses.

Projection: Under

Jacksonville Jaguars (Total: 9)

Even with a defense that should be top five, at worst, color me skeptical that Jacksonville can duplicate last year's run to the AFC Championship, or even repeat as AFC South champs. They'll play a first-place schedule this season and lost three of their top five receivers from last year, which won't help Blake Bortles' development. They only won 10 last year so it's not hard to see the Jags struggling to reach nine in 2018.

Projection: Under

Kansas City Chiefs (Total: 8 1/2)

The Chiefs haven't won fewer than nine games since Andy Reid became head coach in 2013 and haven't won fewer than 10 in their past three seasons, so this number seems criminally low. Sure, the Chiefs are moving on from Alex Smith to the unproven Pat Mahomes, but Mahomes inherits an offense with playmakers everywhere. Forget winning at least nine games, the Chiefs should be shoo-in for double-digit wins and should be considered the favorite to win the AFC West for third straight season.

Projection: Over

Los Angeles Chargers (Total: 9)

Thanks to wins in six of their last seven games in 2017, the Chargers are a popular pick to win the AFC West and make the postseason for the first time since 2013. They've assembled a nice defense, led by pass-rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and corner Casey Hayward, but the Bolts have plenty to prove before they should be considered locks to win 10 or more games. Nine seems right for them.

Projection: Push

Miami Dolphins (Total: 6)

Head coach Adam Gase is changing the culture in South Beach, starting with last year's trade of Jay Ajayi. The roster purge continued this offseason with the exits of Ndamukong Suh, Jarvis Landry, Mike Pouncey, and Lawrence Timmons. Nobody really believes Ryan Tannehill is Gase's quarterback for the future. The Fins won six games last year but from a talent perspective don't appear better going into 2018.

Projection: Under

New England Patriots (Total: 11)

These are tumultuous times for the reigning AFC champs. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski have skipped the first round of OTAs, and Bill Belichick's "Patriot Way" has come under question. It seems to signal turbulence ahead, but as long as Brady is in the huddle, the Pats should be considered favorites to win the AFC East. They'll win at least 10. More than 11? I have some doubts.

Projection: Push

New York Jets (Total: 6)

The Jets were fortunate to have QB Sam Darnold fall into their lap at No. 3 (thanks, Giants), but Darnold doesn't have much support for his rookie season, especially at receiver and running back. Ask Carson Wentz about those perils. This is a total rebuild, and while there's reason for optimism (finally) for Gang Green, eclipsing six wins for a team that won five last year doesn't seem feasible. However, the Jets shouldn't be an abject failure, either.

Projection: Push

Oakland Raiders (Total: 8)

I'm not buying into Jon Gruden resurrecting the Raiders, especially after a nine-year coaching absence. Derek Carr lost his favorite target in Michael Crabtree. Amari Cooper has been inconsistent, Jordy Nelson is 33, Kolton Miller was a questionable pick at 15th overall, and too many of their defensive players are long in the tooth (Reggie Nelson, Leon Hall, Derrick Johnson). Are the Raiders three games better than last year's six-win team? I don't see it.

Projection: Under

Pittsburgh Steelers (Total: 10 1/2)

It's worth wondering how the loss of offensive coordinator Todd Haley will impact an offense that's placed in the top 10 in each of the past four seasons, top three in three of the last four. But the Steelers have won at least 11 games in three of the past four years and bring back most of their personnel from last year's 13-win team. It's possible they take a small step back, but doubtful they regress by three or more losses.

Projection: Over

Tennessee Titans (Total: 8)

The Titans can go either way. They made the playoffs last year with nine wins and upset the Chiefs in the wild-card round but fired the head coach following a 21-point loss and hired unproven Mike Vrabel. Marcus Mariota threw more picks than TDs last year and the Titans have some question marks on offense and defense. But, the team may also have improved with the additions of cornerback Malcolm Butler, defensive lineman Bennie Logan, and rookie linebacker Rashaan Evans. The hunch here is Vegas is right on the money.

Projection: Push

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Geoff Mosher is an award-winning sports reporter, radio host, and TV personality with more than 20 years of experience covering all major sports and leagues. He also hosts regularly on 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia and is co-host of "The Sports Shop" on Facebook.

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