Which playoff team is most in danger of not returning to the postseason?
The NFL's mission for parity doesn't often reach teams who make it to - and win - the Super Bowl, but you can't fault the league for ensuring a radically different playoff field year in and year out.
From 1991-2017, the average number of returning teams is under 6.4 per season - and last season saw even greater turnover. Out of the 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2016, only four - the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, and Kansas City Chiefs - were able to repeat the feat the following year.
Here's a ranking of the 12 teams who made the 2017 postseason, from the least in danger of watching from home in January to the most:
12. New England Patriots
Notable moves: Retained OC Josh McDaniels; traded WR Brandin Cooks to Rams; drafted RB Sony Michel; signed DE Adrian Clayborn in FA, lost LT Nate Solder, WR Danny Amendola, RB Dion Lewis
They're the Patriots. Done. Moving on. Oh, you need more? Well, the last non-Tom Brady-led New England team to miss the playoffs was an NFL-record 15 seasons ago. Death, taxes, and a first-round bye for The Empire.
And if we were to imagine a scenario in which the Patriots regressed back toward the rest of the division, who in the AFC East is ready to step up and finally slay the beast? The Buffalo Bills will be led by either Nathan Peterman, AJ McCarron, or Josh Allen; the New York Jets are in the midst of yet another rebuild, and the Miami Dolphins are arguably less talented than they were a year ago. So, yeah, book the Patriots in for a 16th straight year.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
Notable moves: franchise tagged RB Le'Veon Bell; drafted S Terrell Edmunds, QB Mason Rudolph; signed S Morgan Burnett, LB Jon Bostic in FA, lost OT Chris Hubbard
The Steelers aren't anywhere near the Patriots in terms of year-to-year consistency, but Mike Tomlin's team has made the playoffs in each of the last four seasons, producing double-digit wins in all. And with Ben Roethlisberger's retirement conveniently now on hold after the addition of rookie passer Rudolph, Pittsburgh can remain all-in for winning right now.
The rest of the AFC North isn't bad, but it's far from the top-tier division it was several years ago. The Baltimore Ravens, as ever, will be the Steelers' biggest threat and could take advantage if Pittsburgh's defense falters without Ryan Shazier. But the rest of the AFC is so weak that it's hard to see a team as talented and experienced as Pittsburgh missing out on at least a wild-card spot.
10. Philadelphia Eagles
Notable moves: lost OC Frank Reich; traded for DE Michael Bennett; revised QB Nick Foles' 2018 contract; signed WR Mike Wallace in FA, lost CB Patrick Robinson
The reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles are arguably more talented than their two AFC counterparts above, but face far stiffer competition - both within their division and the NFC as a whole. Furthermore, no NFC East team has won back-to-back divisional crowns since Philadelphia won four straight from 2001-04.
Still, by retaining Nick Foles instead of trading him, the Eagles safeguarded themselves against another Carson Wentz injury, or if the young quarterback is unable to go by Week 1. Expecting Foles to guide Philly to another Super Bowl win is unrealistic, but the veteran can keep Doug Pederson's lauded offensive system rolling enough to ensure another postseason appearance. If the Eagles can continue to maximize their talent, it might be a long time before we see an NFC playoff field without them.
9. New Orleans Saints
Notable moves: re-signed QB Drew Brees; RB Mark Ingram suspended 4 games; drafted DE Marcus Davenport; signed CB Patrick Robinson, TE Ben Watson in FA; OT Zach Strief retired
After three long seasons on the outside of the playoff picture, the Saints re-emerged as Super Bowl contenders in 2017, mostly thanks to the dynamic running back duo of Mark Ingram and then-rookie Alvin Kamara. The infusion of youth, on both sides of the ball, should ensure Drew Brees will have several more cracks at a second title run. The veteran certainly looks as good as ever.
Working against the Saints, however, is a division that's routinely three teams deep each year. The Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers aren't going anywhere, and New Orleans bet big on rookie pass-rusher Marcus Davenport by trading next year's first-rounder to move up and get him. Nevertheless, it's unlikely Brees and Sean Payton let any more seasons go to waste.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
Notable moves: drafted DT Taven Bryan; signed G Andrew Norwell, WR Donte Moncrief in FA, lost WR Allen Robinson
What a difference a year makes. Prior to 2017, the Jaguars had missed the playoffs in nine straight seasons, with six years of double-digit losses since 2011. Jacksonville had previously seemed on the precipice of becoming a solid team, which is likely why some people still don't believe this team is as good as advertised.
We aren't "some people," however. The Jaguars' ridiculous, NFL-best pass-rush isn't going anywhere, and the upgraded offensive line should give Leonard Fournette more room to dominate. Regression back to the mean is possible, but in a conference stocked with teams still finding their feet, the Jaguars are too well-rounded to fall below .500 - even with a much healthier AFC South looking threatening.
7. Minnesota Vikings
Notable moves: hired OC John DeFilippo; drafted CB Mike Hughes; re-signed CB Terence Newman; signed QB Kirk Cousins, DT Sheldon Richardson in FA, lost DT Tom Johnson
Kirk Cousins finally has his contract, and the Vikings finally - hopefully? - have their franchise quarterback. On paper, Minnesota is arguably the closest team to the Eagles in terms of sheer talent. Cousins won't be asked to carry the offense, not with Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and the returning Dalvin Cook to lean on, and the top-ranked defense has stayed intact.
But the Vikings don't have everything going for them. Firstly, the aforementioned defense looked nothing like the regular-season iteration during the playoffs, giving up 62 points in just two games after averaging 15.8 during the prior 16 games. Was it a blip, or it the defense not as talented as once thought? Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, is the return of a certain Green Bay Packers quarterback. A healthy Aaron Rodgers ensures elite competition for the division, and the strength of the NFC means a potential wild-card fight will be brutal.
6. Atlanta Falcons
Notable moves: drafted WR Calvin Ridley; re-signed K Matt Bryant; lost DE Adrian Clayborn, DT Dontari Poe in FA
The Falcons have regained their consistency under head coach Dann Quinn over the last two years, winning the division in 2016 and earning a wild-card spot last year. Atlanta made the postseason in four of the first five seasons of the Matt Ryan era, before hitting a slump from 2013-2015. So, while the Falcons are one of the stronger NFC teams, it's fair to question what version of the team will show itself in 2018.
Furthermore, the issues on offense, primarily coordinator Steve Sarkisian's bland play-calling, remain following a relatively quiet offseason. Rookie Calvin Ridley should help, but he alone can't help make up the 11.8 points per game lost between 2016 and 2017. While the up-and-coming, athletically gifted defense should ease the pressure off Ryan's shoulders somewhat, the NFC South is always a gauntlet; the Falcons can't afford even the slightest regression.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Notable moves: lost OC Matt Nagy; traded QB Alex Smith to Redskins, CB Marcus Peters to Rams; acquired CB Kendall Fuller; signed WR Sammy Watkins, LB Anthony Hitchens in FA, lost WR Albert Wilson
The Chiefs have made the postseason in all but one of head coach Andy Reid's five seasons in charge and still won nine games in the single year they missed out. However, that was with a seasoned veteran under center, not a gunslinger who, while talented, has 35 regular-season attempts to his name.
Patrick Mahomes is set to take over from Alex Smith, and he's arguably the biggest wild card in the league. If he hits the ground running, the Chiefs have enough talent on offense to fight for a first-round bye. But if he struggles, and running back Kareem Hunt is unable to carry the offense with defenses zeroing in on him, Kansas City could be the surprise team to drop out of the AFC playoff field. The 28th-ranked defense certainly isn't strong enough to power a postseason push. The Chiefs' chances could come down to whether any other AFC West team is ready to step up.
4. Los Angeles Rams
Notable moves: acquired CB Marcus Peters, WR Brandin Cooks, CB Aqib Talib; signed DT Ndamukong Suh in FA, lost WR Sammy Watkins
No team has made more noise this offseason than the Rams, who came out of nowhere last season to win the NFC West in spectacular fashion. Los Angeles is clearly, and smartly, taking advantage of having Jared Goff and Todd Gurley on rookie deals by loading up on talented vets who can help the team win now. But, as history has proven, "winning" the offseason doesn't necessarily translate into real Ws.
Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters, and Aqib Talib all improve the Rams' defense, but they're strong personalities for a second-year head coach to deal with, though Sean McVay does have defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to rely on. Moreover, the Falcons' offensive regression after leading the league in scoring - just as the Rams did in 2017 - shows how hard it is to remain at such a high level on that side of the ball. The Rams are rightfully the NFC West favorites, but the San Francisco 49ers look dangerous and counting out the Seattle Seahawks has proven to be foolish in the past.
3. Tennessee Titans
Notable moves: fired HC Mike Mularkey, hired Mike Vrabel; drafted LB Rashaan Evans, LB Harold Landry; signed RB Dion Lewis, CB Malcolm Butler in FA
The Titans squeezed into the playoffs on the final day of the season and managed to win their first postseason game since 2008 campaign. It wasn't enough to save Mike Mularkey's job, however, as he was replaced by Mike Vrabel, who should help boost the team by simply moving away from the offense's archaic scheme.
Still, the Titans finished just above .500 for a reason. They're a young team still finding its groove, especially the middle-of-the-road defense. And while the change of scheme should unleash Marcus Mariota, the rest of the AFC South should be much improved, meaning Tennessee needs significant leaps on both sides of the ball to be in contention for the divisional title.
2. Carolina Panthers
Notable moves: hired OC Norv Turner; drafted WR D.J. Moore; acquired WR Torrey Smith; re-signed DE Julius Peppers; signed DT Dontari Poe in FA, lost RB Jonathan Stewart, G Andrew Norwell, DT Star Lotulelei
Carolina has seemingly been one the NFC's most consistent teams since 2013, making the playoffs four times and winning three NFC South titles. But when you dig a little deeper, the cracks appear in their recent success. Last year's 11-win season was proceeded by a highly disappointing 6-10 finish following the loss in Super Bowl 50. The Panthers won 15 regular-season games on their way to the big show during the 2015 campaign but took the division the year prior with only seven victories.
In short, the Panthers are a top-heavy team who rely on their stars too much, leading to down years like 2016. It doesn't help that after years of watching the offense stagnate around Cam Newton, Carolina opted to make offensive coordinator Norv Turner the team's savior. How he fits with the former NFL MVP is a huge question mark. The unit should be more explosive, though, with D.J. Moore aboard and no Jonathan Stewart to take touches away from Christian McCaffrey - but the historical volatility of this team, along with a stacked NFC South, means it's the NFC squad most feeling the heat.
1. Buffalo Bills
Notable moves: drafted QB Josh Allen; traded QB Tyrod Taylor to Browns, LT Cordy Glenn to Bengals; signed DT Star Lotulelei, QB AJ McCarron in FA; G Richie Incognito retired
The Bills fan base doesn't deserve this, but the football gods care not for the feelings of mere mortals. After finally snapping their 17-year streak without a playoff appearance, the Bills are easily the team most in danger of being booted from postseason contention.
As mentioned previously, the AFC East isn't exactly stacked with talent, but the Patriots' presence means everyone else is automatically playing for second. Moreover, the Bills' offense is not only lacking established talent all over the field, it will be led by either an underwhelming veteran (McCarron), a second-year passer with five interceptions in one half (Peterman), or a raw rookie who's definitely not ready for primetime (Allen).
A new drought begins.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)