NFL win totals: Comparing our 2019 NFC predictions to Vegas openers
We got a head start last month on predicting NFL win totals for every team in 2019. Earlier this week, CG Technology in Las Vegas unveiled the first list of totals.
Beginning with the NFC, here's how our projections stack up to the opening numbers.
Arizona Cardinals
Our pick: 5 (Over +100, Under -130)
Opening total: 5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Shut it down. We are masterminds.
In all seriousness, Arizona wasn't especially tough to project. Whether the Cardinals opt to keep Josh Rosen under center or draft Kyler Murray to take the reins, Kliff Kingsbury and Co. are undergoing a full rebuild.
Atlanta Falcons
Our pick: 8.5 (Over +105, Under -125)
Opening total: 8.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Right on point, except the over is the chalk. The Falcons fell off the map with five straight losses late in the 2018 season but quietly finished just one game below .500.
Carolina Panthers
Our pick: 7 (Over -125, Under -105)
Opening total: 8 (Over +100, Under -120)
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments last season, as it closed the year on a 1-7 skid after starting 6-2. It's easy to remember only a team's late-season slump, but we believe the second half of 2018 depicts the Panthers more accurately than the first half.
Chicago Bears
Our pick: 10 (Over -120, Under +100)
Opening total: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
With the Bears taking the leap from 5-11 in 2017 to 12-4 last season, we expected them to drop back just a little.
Apparently, we aren't alone in that thought process.
Chicago will bring back virtually every key piece from last year's club, but as we mentioned in our predictions piece, it'll go from the hunter to the hunted in 2019.
Dallas Cowboys
Our pick: 8.5 (Over -135, Under +105)
Opening total: 8.5 (Over -135, Under +115)
Bingo.
Are the Cowboys the most 8-8 team of all time with this roster? It should be an annual tradition going forward to open Dallas up at eight wins with -110 on both sides.
Detroit Lions
Our pick: 6 (Over +105, Under -125)
Opening total: 7 (Over -110, Under -110)
We were calling for back-to-back six-win seasons for the Lions, but perhaps a rebound is in store for a franchise that's been relatively active in free agency. Year 1 under head coach Matt Patricia didn't inspire much confidence for our projections, though.
Green Bay Packers
Our pick: 8 (Over -130, Under +110)
Opening total: 9 (Over -125, Under +105)
We thought maybe - just maybe - the market would overreact to the Packers going 6-9-1 last season. But, inevitably, Green Bay will always attract a ton of over money as long as Aaron Rodgers is under center. It's not all that surprising to see the Packers open at nine wins, but where that number goes from here will be intriguing.
Los Angeles Rams
Our pick: 11.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
Opening total: 10.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
OK, maybe we were a bit too bullish on the Rams for the 2019 season. They also burned our under bet in 2018, so perhaps this is the year they show some signs of weakness during the regular season.
Minnesota Vikings
Our pick: 9 (Over -110, Under -110)
Opening total: 9 (Over -110, Under -110)
Calling for a Vikings rebound isn't necessarily the most unique opinion, as almost everyone expects it. Minnesota floundered last year under lofty expectations but will get a shot at redemption in 2019.
New Orleans Saints
Our pick: 10.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Opening total: 10.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
The Saints are that prototypical solid team that's tough to beat on both sides of the ball. And leading that projected 10.5-win club will once again be Drew Brees, who's expected to continue his elite play in what will be his age-40 season.
New York Giants
Our pick: 7.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Opening total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
There's a reason oddsmakers wait until the free-agent market slows down a bit. We marked the Giants down for 7.5 wins, but that was before they traded away Odell Beckham Jr. and let Landon Collins walk to a division rival.
Philadelphia Eagles
Our pick: 9 (Over -125, Under +105)
Opening total: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
The Eagles benefit from playing in a division with two of the worst teams in the conference, but even among all that mediocrity, they will need Carson Wentz to stay healthy in 2019.
San Francisco 49ers
Our pick: 8 (Over -115, Under -105)
Opening total: 8 (Over -105, Under -115)
Not to puff out our chests too much, but eight wins felt like a good number for the 49ers until we get a better idea of how the team plays with Jimmy Garoppolo under center for a full season.
Seattle Seahawks
Our pick: 9 (Over +110, Under -130)
Opening total: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Seattle silenced the doubters last year with a 10-6 season. There's nothing wrong with the 8.5-win opener, but we went with an even nine - the Seahawks have won nine or more games in seven straight seasons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Our pick: 6.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Opening total: 6 (Over -120, Under +100)
It feels like just yesterday when the Buccaneers were the sleepers in the conference after being featured on "Hard Knocks." Now, they're projected to finish last in the NFC South for the third straight season.
Washington Redskins
Our pick: 5.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Opening total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
We gave the Redskins the second-lowest projection in our totals at 5.5, but CG Technology is giving them a bit more credit. Washington is in the market for a first-round quarterback - which would undoubtedly make it more exciting - but it's expected to be another difficult year in D.C.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.