What's next for the Twins and Rays after their ALDS losses?
Winning the World Series is hard. These teams couldn't do it. So, what's next for the casualties of the American League Division Series? Jonah Birenbaum, theScore's senior MLB writer, tries to suss it out.
Previous entries: NLDS - Braves and Dodgers | Wild-card round - Brewers and Athletics
Minnesota Twins
The Twins' efforts to thrust themselves back into contention following a regressive 2018 campaign proved successful. The offseason addition of Nelson Cruz - and, to a lesser degree, the signings of Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop - along with breakouts from multiple home-grown youngsters propelled Minnesota to its first division title in nearly a decade. The Twins finished with 101 wins, one shy of their franchise record set in 1965, while their unexpectedly potent offense established MLB's new high-water mark for homers in a single season with 307. In truth, the Twins couldn't have hoped for a more successful 2019.
However, a hapless three-game dismissal at the hands of the New York Yankees in the American League Division Series showed that the gap separating the Twins from the league's truly elite teams is not insignificant. And with a handful of integral players poised to depart via free agency, they'll have to do some work this offseason just to replicate their 2019 success, let alone advance further.
Most significantly, the Twins are set to lose three key arms this offseason: Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Kyle Gibson, who collectively accrued 9.5 WAR this year while starting more than half of the team's games. The loss of Odorizzi particularly stings, as the 29-year-old - armed with renewed velocity - enjoyed a quietly superb 2019, setting career bests in ERA+, FIP, and strikeout rate while amassing more WAR than Clayton Kershaw, James Paxton, and Trevor Bauer.
As such, unless they're content to hand those starts to low-ceiling depth pitchers like Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer, the Twins will have to be active either in free agency or on the trade market this winter to restock their rotation. Minnesota's most highly touted pitching prospects, Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran, are still far away from the big leagues, and the organization can't afford to wait for them with Cruz only under contract for one more season. (As expected, the club will exercise its $12-million option on the slugger for 2020, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.)
Considering, moreover, how good the rival teams at the top are right now, the Twins shouldn't be wary about spending big money or parting with their top prospects to acquire legitimate studs. Low-risk, low-impact additions will keep them in contention for a division crown, but the goal at this point has to be the World Series title. For the Twins to bridge that gap between themselves and the league's juggernauts - the Yankees, the Houston Astros, and the Los Angeles Dodgers - they'll need to add several good starters this winter.
The good news is that virtually every key position player will be back next year, including their seven most valuable contributors by WAR: Max Kepler, Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Luis Arraez. (The potential losses of Schoop and Jason Castro to free agency are largely immaterial.) Other than Cruz, each key contributor is on the enviable side of 30, and while it's premature to anoint them all as studs, this is a very talented group that may even have room to improve.
The same could be said of the bullpen, which is primed to lose only Sergio Romo this winter. Led by the triumvirate of Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May, Minnesota's relief unit inconspicuously led the majors in park-adjusted FIP while finishing third in WAR.
Ultimately, there's a lot to like about this club moving forward, even beyond 2020 (shoutout to Royce Lewis). But Cruz's age combined with his free agency after next season does put some pressure on the Twins to win, like, now, and they'll have to beef up their rotation in a big way to realistically vie for the World Series title.
Tampa Bay Rays
In the most cynical terms, the Rays navigated a dream season in 2019, locking down the wild-card spot that eluded them last year - and getting a nice slice of postseason revenue - while fielding the league's lowest payroll. Despite handing Charlie Morton the biggest free-agent deal in franchise history last winter (a two-year, $30-million contract), the Rays slashed their year-over-year outlay by more than $16 million, according to Cot's Contracts, and paid their typical starting lineup less combined money than Zack Greinke made in 2019.
Their financial machinations notwithstanding, the Rays made their first postseason appearance since 2013 and even managed to force a Game 5 against the dream-killing Houston Astros. That's no small feat, nor was it a fluke. The Rays are poised to do it all again next year - be cheap and compete, that is.
Thanks in no small part to the additions made at last year's trade deadline - Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and Tommy Pham - along with the Morton signing, the Rays quietly excelled on both sides of the ball in 2019, riding their almost exclusively pre-arb or arbitration-eligible roster to a top-10 offense while also allowing fewer runs per game than every other team except the Dodgers and Astros. In fact, their trio of elite starting pitchers combined with an exceptionally deep bullpen - which was creatively utilized by manager Kevin Cash, who helped normalize the "opener" strategy now regularly employed around the league - helped the Rays' staff accrue more WAR than any other in the majors.
Unlike the Twins, the Rays don't need to do much this offseason to maintain the gains made in 2019. They're only losing two key players to free agency, Avisail Garcia and Travis d'Arnaud, and they shouldn't miss either too much thanks to their considerable depth and team-wide versatility. Either Brandon Lowe or Nate Lowe, for instance, could take over in right field on a full-time basis, with the other - or, say, Joey Wendle - sliding in at second base. Alternatively, Meadows could become the team's everyday right fielder, with Jesus Aguilar, should Tampa choose to retain him, serving as the primary DH.
Meanwhile, despite his struggles at the plate this year, Mike Zunino - the Rays' primary catcher before d'Arnaud's arrival and one of the 12 best at his position in 2018 - is still a perfectly fine starter thanks to his elite defensive skills. Everyone else of import - Blake Snell, Glasnow, Morton, Pham, Meadows, Willy Adames, Brendan McKay, Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Kevin Kiermaier, and the entire bullpen - will be back for 2020 (and, with the exception of Morton, beyond).
Of course, if their goal is to merely maintain this winter, the Rays probably won't be able to contend for a championship next year. As good as they are, they're still appreciably worse than the Yankees, who finished with seven more wins and a much better run differential, making their path to the pennant decidedly fraught. As such, even with more potential surplus value waiting in the wings in the form of pitcher Brent Honeywell, the Rays will have to - brace yourselves, folks - spend money to get over the hump in 2020. (Wander Franco, their most prized youngster and the consensus top prospect in the game, is likely too far away to contribute next year.)
Make no mistake - this team can absolutely afford to sign impactful free agents. Before accounting for arbitration raises, the Rays have only $36 million on the books for 2020. They should be in the market for upgrades to the few soft spots on their roster. Historically, though, competing has been subordinate to maximizing profitability for the Rays, and that seemed to be the case in 2019, too, despite their on-field success. Will that change this offseason now that they've assembled a cost-controlled core that evokes the halcyon days of Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, David Price, James Shields et al? We'll see. But don't hold your breath.
Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter @birenball.