NFL most passing yards odds: Mahomes is the QB to beat
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Picking a player to lead the league in a statistical category is always a fun wager. Not only is it entertaining to invest in a season-long prop, it could potentially yield a huge payday.
Today, we're going to dive into the passing yards leader for the 2020 NFL season. We know top-tier gunslingers such as Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, and others are going to put up huge numbers. But where does the value really lie? Let's take a peek at the oddsboard.
Odds to lead the NFL in passing yards
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +600 |
| Drew Brees | +700 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +800 |
| Matt Ryan | +800 |
| Tom Brady | +800 |
| Dak Prescott | +900 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1000 |
| Jared Goff | +1200 |
| Kyler Murray | +1200 |
| Russell Wilson | +1600 |
| Carson Wentz | +2000 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +2500 |
| Matthew Stafford | +2500 |
| Philip Rivers | +2500 |
| Baker Mayfield | +3300 |
| Derek Carr | +3300 |
| Deshaun Watson | +3300 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +4000 |
| Cam Newton | +4000 |
| Drew Lock | +4000 |
| Jameis Winston | +4000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +4000 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | +4000 |
| Andy Dalton | +5000 |
| Daniel Jones | +5000 |
| Joe Burrow | +5000 |
| Josh Allen | +5000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +5000 |
| Sam Darnold | +5000 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | +5000 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | +6600 |
| Nick Foles | +6600 |
| Gardner Minshew | +8000 |
| Jarrett Stidham | +8000 |
| Dwayne Haskins | +15000 |
| Tyrod Taylor | +15000 |
The favorites
Mahomes deserves to pace the field; he missed a chunk of last season and still finished with more than 4,000 yards. The only downside is the Chiefs oftentimes have the lead and barely cracked the top 10 in pass play frequency last season as a result. But all in all, nobody in the league is more dominant with the ball in their hand than Mahomes, who can eat up yards in a hurry.
Drew Brees at 7-1 is interesting. We know he has the talent at receiver and running back to get it done, but will the volume be there? Although he only played in 11 regular-season games in 2019, Brees continues to regress in the passing yards department; he hasn't thrown for more than 4,000 yards in a season since 2017 and the Saints continue to implement a more balanced offensive approach.
Best bets
Dak Prescott (9-1)
Prescott was 200-plus yards shy of Winston for the passing title last season. It was a true breakout year for the Cowboys quarterback, who set single-season bests in completions, attempts, yards, yards per attempt, and touchdowns. While some might lazily peg Prescott for a regression year, I think he can build off those 2019 statistics.
New head coach Mike McCarthy loves to throw the ball around; the Packers were top-seven in the league in pass play frequency in each of his last three seasons with the franchise. With rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb joining the star tandem of Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on the outside, Prescott has all the resources he needs.
Teddy Bridgewater (50-1)
In terms of the wager size on something as improbable as this, I'd recommend throwing down all the spare coins you find in your couch cushions. Nonetheless, I still think there's some value on Bridgewater, considering the circumstances.
For starters, offensive coordinator Joe Brady is a breath of fresh air for a rebuilding franchise. He needed just one season as the LSU Tigers passing game coordinator to morph them into national champions. Head coach Matt Rhule will likely have his fingerprints on the game plan, but I can get on board with a Brady-Bridgewater pairing.
The first-year Panthers QB isn't a gunslinger, but he'll have a deep supporting cast. Carolina brought in wide receiver Robby Anderson to boost the passing game alongside D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey.
The selling point for me is the game script - Carolina is only favored in one contest this entire season, which means you'll likely see the offense in catch-up mode religiously.
For what it's worth, playing Bridgewater over the total on his individual statistics for the 2020 season isn't a terrible idea whatsoever.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.