NFL Week 6 survivor picks: Trust FitzMagic to bully beleaguered Jets

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With so many big favorites on the board, Week 5 was always going to be a minefield. Those who picked the Saints, Cowboys, and Seahawks survived legitimate scares, while 49ers and Chiefs backers weren't so lucky.

Things are even trickier in Week 6, with shorter spreads and balanced matchups dominating the schedule. This could be the week the other shoe drops.

Week 6 confidence ranking

Confidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Author's pick: Miami Dolphins

Picking against Ryan Fitzpatrick in survivor pools is simply something you shouldn't do. Over the last three seasons (including the 2020 campaign), he's led his teams to five outright wins as underdogs of at least a touchdown. His volatility is gut-wrenching. But what about picking with Fitzpatrick?

The Dolphins host the Jets this week and will be at least seven-point favorites, with the opening line at -8 in the limited spots it's available. Fitzpatrick hasn't been in this spot very often, but when he has, he's delivered: He's 5-1 straight up as a starter with his team favored by at least a touchdown. Fitzpatrick is also 24-9 straight up as an NFL starter when favored in any capacity dating back to 2012.

With Sam Darnold recovering from a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder, there are questions around who starts at quarterback for the Jets. Darnold's status is very much up in the air, and we've already seen what a trainwreck this offense is with Joe Flacco at the helm. New York is 0-7 in games Darnold has missed since the team drafted the USC quarterback in 2018, and the Jets have no real reason to rush their young quarterback back from injury.

If Darnold does start, there's still not much cause for concern here. With Byron Jones returning to the lineup in Week 5 alongside Xavien Howard, the Dolphins showed just how dominant their revamped defense can be; Miami limited the 49ers to just 4.4 yards per play and forced three turnovers. The Jets have little hope against that secondary given their injuries on offense - Chris Hogan became the latest to join a long list of injured players Sunday.

Consider also the massive coaching discrepancy between the two teams - Brian Flores has done a marvelous job in Miami while Adam Gase's seat is so hot he has to stand - and the fact the Jets are losing players by the day while the Dolphins continue to get healthy. Fading the league's worst team is a no-brainer here.

Avoid: New England Patriots

Reports Tuesday indicated the Patriots should have both Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore back from the reserve/COVID-19 list for this contest. But if there's anything we've learned from the last two weeks, it's that we shouldn't be sure about anything when it comes to the coronavirus - especially after Ryan Tannehill's concerning comments.

An extra week between games has helped Drew Lock in his recovery from a shoulder injury, and the Broncos quarterback is expected to return Sunday. Lock was 4-1 as a starter last season, a record that included a win as an eight-point 'dog on the road against the Texans.

Give Bill Belichick an extra week to prepare while putting two of his best players back on the field, and one would expect a straightforward Patriots win. But these are unprecedented circumstances. Without truly knowing Newton's status - or the condition he'll be in if he does play - there's no way to feel fully comfortable pinning your survival hopes on New England this week.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.