NFL upset of the week: Dolphins will surprise Rams in Tua's debut

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Each week during the NFL season, we'll focus on one underdog with a chance to pull off the outright upset. Last week, the Panthers (+290) nearly stunned the Saints, which would have easily made us profitable for the year. Instead, we're 2-5 on moneyline underdogs with -1.15 units won.

A win this week would turn that around, and we like our chances with the Dolphins (+165) in a compelling underdog spot against the Rams.

Miami on the rise

The Dolphins got off to a slow start with losses to the Patriots and Bills, but they've been on a tear since then, winning three games by a combined 68 points and losing a one-possession contest to the NFC-leading Seahawks.

The highlight was a 43-17 beatdown over the same 49ers team that toppled the Rams a week later. Miami's defense forced Jimmy Garoppolo out of the game after a pair of interceptions, and its offense could have scored more than 41 points if it converted better than 3 of 6 red-zone trips for touchdowns.

The Dolphins must feel good about Tua Tagovailoa's readiness to replace a red-hot Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he should have his full complement of weapons with two full weeks to prepare for a talented but inconsistent Rams defense. Miami has covered four straight out of a bye week and will be ready for Sunday's test.

Rams' offense in trouble

The Dolphins' highly paid defense is finally generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which could be trouble for a Los Angeles offense that relies on clear, schemed throws for Jared Goff.

Like most quarterbacks, Goff is more effective when getting the ball out quickly, but he tends to collapse under pressure. Goff has the sixth-lowest percentage of dropbacks under pressure (24.7%) among 32 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season. Yet, he ranks 25th among those 32 quarterbacks in passer rating (46.2) and 29th in adjusted completion percentage (52.5%) when he's under pressure.

Miami's defense is at its best when creating chaos through exotic blitz schemes, which is a nightmare for a quarterback like Goff. Coupled with the way the Dolphins' high-end corners have played in recent weeks, it'll be tough for the Rams to find any rhythm - which is the crux of coach Sean McVay's offense.

Why the Dolphins will win

Miami is among the most underrated teams in the NFL, as evidenced by a 4-1 record against the spread in its last five games. It's also had two weeks to game plan for Tagovailoa's much-anticipated debut against a Rams team coming off a short week after playing Monday night.

Los Angeles has limited tape on how the Dolphins' offense might change under Tagovailoa, making this the perfect spot to bet high on the rookie quarterback. If his defense makes life difficult for the opposing QB, too, he'll be in an ideal spot to earn his first career win.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.